Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a wide selection of pitchers today, ranging from those with solid KSCOREs and SIERAs to those that are borderline gas cans with high ISOs and other important stats. We only have a few on the early slates with good strikeout upside (Eovaldi and Scherzer being two of them, no surprise there), and most of the rest have bad SIERAs (4.5+). On FanDuel it might not be a bad idea to just pay up, but on DK, you’ll have to do some digging to find a good SP2…or maybe just pay up there, too.
For the main slate we have quite a few with some good strikeout potential (such as Rodon, Burnes, and Gausman), and fewer overall that are looking as rough around the edges as the early slates. There will be more interesting options here, but like always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they like best.
Early slates
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Cubs, with Kelly and Mills on the mound. Neither pitcher has any glaring weaknesses as of late, so there might not be a whole lot of great offensive options here. There are a few bats that look good, but I’m not sure that big stacks are the answer here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Peralta, VanMeter
GPP note – Mills isn’t giving up much power at all, so maybe grab a key bat or two and get out
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Wisdom
GPP note -Kelly is performing a bit worse against righties lately, so grabbing some RvR bats isn’t a bad idea
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Next up is another chapter in the Yankees / Red Sox rivalry, with Taillon and Eovaldi squaring off. Eovaldi has some of the best pitching stats on the day heading into this one, so even though he’s facing the Yankees, I think he would be worth giving a look in some tournaments. Taillon…not so much. It’ll be a much tougher battle for him.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge (BvP), Stanton, Odor, LeMahieu
GPP note – They have some BvP against Eovaldi, but he is coming into this game looking pretty solid, so maybe temper expectations just a tad, if you rely on BvP more than others do
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Verdugo, Renfroe (BvP)
GPP note – Looking a little rough coming into this one, Taillon is no stranger to allowing multiple homers in an outing, so don’t be afraid to stack these guys
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Smyly and the Braves take on Velasquez and the Phillies next, and both pitchers are in similar spots; they look to be about middle-of-the-road options, though Velasquez is giving up a bit more power than Smyly. I could see the Braves returning the favor after falling 5 to 1 last night, and putting up a decent score here.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Swanson, Riley, Albies
GPP note – Good spot for some big hits here, so feel free to grab big and small stacks alike
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, McCutchen, Segura
GPP note – Some well-running bats here, though Smyly is looking good as of late. This is a good spot to hedge; consider some exposure to these guys in any lineups you aren’t using Smyly
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Up next are a couple of pitchers who struggle who hit double-digit scores on DK, or pitch very many innings for that matter. There are some good offensive options here, though you’ll probably want to look more at the bullpen than the starting pitchers, because we probably won’t see them very long.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Pham
GPP note – Both sides of the plate will be good options against Curtiss, but he probably won’t last but an inning. Do some digging on the bullpen, or just stack away, because a lot of these bats are good against either hand
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Aguilar
GPP note – Not much to love here, but I could see a one-off or mini-stack being useful if they get a lucky pitch
Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
The Nationals and Orioles are up next, at good ‘ol Camden Yards. Scherzer will look to silence the hitter’s park with his big strikeout upside, and Harvey, well..he’s usually not very great, but every once in a while has a decent outing. We’ll see what he can do here, as he has a few tough bats to try and navigate around.
Nationals 5 star plays – Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Bell, Escobar
GPP note – Good spot for everybody, but Harvey has a little bit worse reverse splits heading into this one
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Will probably drop a dud, but it’s not impossible for Max to have a bad game, and he’s given up 5 homers in his last 3 games. This would be a bad park for him to have a bad game at, so running some contrarian stacks isn’t out of the question here
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Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
We continue on to the main slate now, starting with the Rays and Indians. Overall this is a pretty good spot for the Rays’ offense, and they know the bullpen game better, so I think they’ll snag this one. The Indians are worth a look, though they aren’t nearly as exciting at first glance.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Cruz, Meadows, Diaz, Arozarena
GPP note – Mejia is coming into this one giving up plenty to both sides, so really, this entire lineup is in play. Try some wrap-around stacks if you think they’ll be too chalky
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Hernandez
GPP note – Not a fantastic spot here, as these bullpen games can really break up a rally, should one start. I’d lean more towards one-offs or mini-stacks if you decide to go here
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
The Cardinals and Reds are up next, at the batter-friendly Great American Ball Park. This one looks to favor the home team a bit, as Castillo has been tough to both sides of the plate, and the Cardinals don’t have a lot of scorching hot bats coming into this one. Woodford had a good outing against the Cubs on the 19th, but I can’t guarantee that he’ll see 5+ innings again.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Arenado, O’Neil
GPP note – There’s a ton of BvP here, so if you’re into that, this is the offense for you. Be careful though; while there are some homers, there are lots of strikeouts, too
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Winker, India
GPP note – I don’t know how long Woodford will pitch, but he’s been pretty soft against the lefties he’s seen, so you can attack him there
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
A couple of high-dollar pitchers are up next, with Rodon and the White Sox facing Burnes and the Brewers. Not much of a surprise, but these two have two of the best carnage ratings on the day, as well as some hefty strikeout upside. Tough pitching without much BvP at all…not a great spot for either offense here.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Moncada
GPP note – This isn’t a blow-up spot, so stack at your own risk
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Garcia
GPP note – Same as above. The pitching looks to have much more upside than the bats in this one
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
The Angels and Twins are up next, and while they aren’t as good options at first glance as the two pitchers from our previous game, both of these pitchers have 500+ KSCOREs in this matchup, and both sport decent SIERAs. I don’t know that they’ll be cash game staples, but if nothing else, are interesting tournament options.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Stassi, Upton (some BvP)
GPP note – Not a great stacking spot, but could be a source of some one-offs or mini-stacks
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Donaldson, Sano
GPP note – Not a great stacking spot here either, but the righties have a slight edge in power against Sandoval
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
As the games continue we drop down another peg with our pitchers, this time to two lower-dollar options against two hit-or-miss teams. Both are a little risky by default, but both do offer a fair amount of upside at mostly not-so-terrible prices, as neither offense will see a ton of resistance from these bullpens.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Baddoo, Schoop
GPP note – These guys seem to like to go off in big spurts, so if you grab some stacks here, make ’em big
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Santana, Merrifield, Perez, Benintendi, Dozier
GPP note – The 4-star plays above are more like 3.5-stars, but if they can get some momentum going, we could see something decent here. The righties are hitting better, but Mize is softer against lefties..in which the ones here aren’t doing so hot. That’s my Royals for ya!
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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
We head down south for our next game, as the battle of Texas rolls on with the Rangers and Astros. As expected, the Astros look to have the advantage on both sides of the coin, so they’ll likely be the more popular team here. Granted, Valdez has started allowing a lot of hits in his last few games, so if that continues, we could see this one going the over.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – Gallo continues to be cold, but in 7 at-bats against Valdez, he only has one strikeout. Perhaps he can snap his streak here? Otherwise, Valdez has been getting hit around a lot more than he had been, so don’t be afraid to try some stacks here
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Altuve, Correa
GPP note – Traditional LvR splits are the stronger option here against Gibson. Consider some exposure in the bottom of the order if these guys look to be overly chalky. If not, consider going a little heavier, because Gibson’s price is still inflated from when he faced three weaker teams in a row (and that may throw some people off when selecting their stacks, possibly making these guys slightly lower-owned than they could be)
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets
We travel back to the northeast for our next game between the Blue Jays and Mets, with Ryu and Walker taking the hill.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Semien, Gurriel
GPP note – Walker has slightly worse reverse splits here, so embrace all of the RvR matchups instead of being afraid of them
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, McNeil, Nimmo, almost any other lefty starting
GPP note – These guys have seen Ryu a fair amount but have never hit a home run against him, but I think that might change today. He’s been much softer against lefties, so there’s a good chance one of them will get it. These guys are hitting lefties well coming in, so I like some stacks here
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
We head out west to start the late night games, starting with the Pirates and Giants. The Pirates snagged the opener, but I think the Giants get back on track and take the second game here. Gausman didn’t have his best outing last time against the Dodgers, but his strikeouts were still there, so I think this will be a good spot for him to bounce back. He struck out 12 on his way to a 37 DKFP performance the last time he faced this team.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Frazier
GPP note – Gausman smoked these guys the last time around, and he’ll be itching for another big game to bounce back from his not-so-great start against the Dodgers earlier this week. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for this offense
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Posey, Dickerson
GPP note – Crowe probably doesn’t put up much of a fight here, and there are some bats doing pretty well here that could put up some production. They’re nice and cheap, so you can easily stack ’em deep. Also, reverse splits are firmly in play here, so don’t be afraid to go with some righties
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Rockies and Dodgers are up next, and, well..at least they’re not playing at Coors. Still, I’m sure the Dodgers will be as chalky as they can be here, as they’re in a good spot to do some damage. The offense is a given, but even with Gonsolin’s poor recent performances, he has a solid carnage rating and will be in a spot to flirt with a season-high score here (granted that would only mean 20 DKFP, but still).
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, McMahon, Blackmon
GPP note – Not much to love here, but I do like Cron in this spot
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Taylor, Pollock, Turner, Bellinger
GPP note – The Dodgers probably do their thing here again, so grab some pieces of this chalky lineup. Try some of those deep in the lineup to help with the ownership, as they’ll be in a good spot too
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
We head up to Seattle for our final game of the day, with the Athletics taking on the Mariners. On paper, Gilbert looks to have the upper hand here, so even if his team doesn’t win, I could see him putting up another good score here. Granted that wasn’t the case the first two times he met this team, but he’s stepped up his game a bit since then, so maybe the third time’s the charm?
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Lowrie
GPP note – I have a feeling Gilbert gets the better of these guys this time around, but if you don’t agree or aren’t sure, consider hedging some lineups here, because I think some good fantasy production will come out of this one somewhere
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager (some BvP), Haniger, France
GPP note – The lefties are in a decent spot, and I don’t know that Bassitt has enough to dominate here, so I’m not against running a few stacks out of this one. Be sure Seager is involved in them if you do
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Houston Astros – I’ll go ahead and put the two chalkier teams together, since they won’t be sneaking up on anybody today. Yawn, I know, but they’re in good spots.
- New York Mets – Ryu has been soft to lefties and a lot of these bats are hitting well, so I think some exposure here would be a good idea
- Tampa Bay Rays – Hot bats + cold pitching = a recipe for success, and that’s exactly what we get here. Pretty good chance of some fireworks here, so consider stacking these guys
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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