Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/23:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- David Price
- Freddy Peralta
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Tampa Bay Rays (-145) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming or Rich Hill
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think we could see a great pitcher’s duel or we could see about 6 HRs hit in this game. I think the TB offense is going to be a bit energized with the acquisition of Nelson Cruz. The Indians could put up some runs as they have some guys that can flash some power against LHPs but they haven’t been putting a ton of hurt on opposing SPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-153) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Thompson has been pretty solid since his debut but this match-up is extremely tough for him. I always get a stack or two of the Padres but they aren’t going to be near the top of my rankings. I think we can use mini-stacks and one-offs from this game. Aguilar has hit Musgrove pretty well in his career.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-157)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Wade LeBlanc
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I was shocked to see the total sitting at 10 as the Cardinals aren’t putting up a ton of runs right now and the Reds will be without their best hitter, Castellanos, for a couple of weeks. We know that offense happens in this ballpark but a guy like Mahle could surprise for GPP purposes.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-240)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Odorizzi was strong in his appearance against TEX and had been rolling prior to his last start. He gets a plus match-up and if the Rangers were to deal Gallo on Friday, the lineup would be a TON weaker. Houston needs to get the offense rolling and while Allard has the ability, they could definitely do some damage.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals (-130) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I always stack against Lopez and I usually tilt it for a while and then he has a rough inning at some point. I just feel like this Nationals offense is feeling it at the plate and I did predict last week that Soto would have a monster 2nd half and he’s definitely showing it. The Orioles have a few bats that could do damage to Corbin so I think I will look to mini-stack BAL in some GPP builds.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants (-177)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kuhl is a guy that has the arm but he can never put it together while Cueto doesn’t have much of an arm any longer but somehow he misses bats at times. He draws a plus match-up but the Pirates are one of those pesky offenses that can put the ball in play plenty.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Cole could be the key to the slate on Friday night. He has flashed really strong games without the use of the substances but he’s also had some issues in other starts. Gleyber has really started to heat up at the plate and he’s had great success against Rodriguez. E-Rod is in play because of how weak the bottom half of the NYY lineup is right now.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (-131)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I am really shocked at this game total as we usually have to wait until later the morning of the game to get a total based on wind. A few ARI bats have hit Davies well and Gallen just isn’t as sharp this season as he was previously. I know the Cubs look like they’ve kind of given up so who knows if they really show up but if the wind is blowing out, we could see plenty of HRs.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras, Javy Baez
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-278)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Dodgers – David Price
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As I type this up, the Dodgers just blew a 3-1 lead in the 9th to the Giants. Price has upside, especially against a weak COL squad. I think the Dodgers offense is in a great spot to beat up Gonzalez and the weak arms of the Colorado bullpen. Will Smith is rolling at the plate right now and Justin Turner has looked good as well.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Will Smith
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels (-121) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Angels – Alex Cobb
Twins – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Twins traded away Nelson Cruz on Thursday and as a Twins fan, it sucks. His loss, along with injuries to Buxton and Kirilloff, makes the Twins lineup look really weak overall. I think the Angels are a sneaky stack and that’s saying something considering the game has a total of 10.
LAA 5-star plays: Justin Upton
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Mets (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want all the Blue Jays again and I don’t care that the game total is pretty low in comparison to other games. I just love the way this offense can explode on a nightly basis and I am willing to die on their hill. Megill has been decent but this isn’t the match-up for him. I have seen Matz or Ryu for TOR and I think both are in great spots as the Mets can be pretty LHB heavy in their lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-111) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Manaea absolutely dominated the Mariners lineup on Thursday night and it sets Montas up to continue that trend. Kikuchi just surprises me all the time so I won’t be attacking him with much other than some one-offs in search of HRs. A few of the Mariners bats have hit Montas fairly well in their careers.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is an excellent SP match-up as we could see plenty of Ks in this game. Both guys can give up HRs because of their desire to pitch up in the zone to set up their out pitches/off-speed. Moncada and Anderson have started the second half extremely strong while the Brewers just keep putting up runs, despite a lineup that appears to be weak overall.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-140)
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wheeler is going to be one of my favorite SPs and that’s despite the fact that Freeman has absolutely owned him. Fried always has upside but a few PHI bats have taken him deep. I lean more towards a pitcher’s duel than a blowout but I don’t have a problem taking a PHI mini-stack and then using Freeman as a one-off.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-125)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Peralta has been impressive for DET but this game has a massive total for being in a ballpark known to be a pitcher’s park. I know the Tigers offense has surprised recently so maybe this is a game that we can get some sneaky game stacks put together. I wouldn’t go overboard but that total stands out.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Washington Nationals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Justin Upton, LAA
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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