Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- John Means
- Tarik Skubal
- German Marquez
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Means is returning after making 3 rehab starts but he topped out at 3 innings in those starts. That tells me he’s probably got a ceiling of about 5 innings. He gets a team that has struck out a bunch against LHPs this season. McClanahan has a big-time arm and he could match the strikeouts of Means.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-139) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Braves – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Monday night’s game was rained out so let’s do it all over again with these two. Darvish is coming off of the IL but he gets to face an ATL squad who had to replace Acuna with Joc Pederson. Muller has plenty of K upside in his arm but the match-up stinks overall. The Padres have been weak enough against LHPs that Muller could surprise at very low ownership.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds (-139)
Pitchers:
Mets – Undecided
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Monday night’s game is in extras with all sorts of runs on the board. I would expect another high-scoring game on Tuesday night as the Mets aren’t hiding any stud SP secret for this game. I will be looking at stacking both sides multiple ways in hopes of picking up a few HRs.
NYM 5-star plays: JD Davis
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers (EVEN) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Tigers knocked around Kyle Gibson on Monday night so Dunning doesn’t look like a slam dunk play at this point. The top of the Tigers lineup has been rolling of late. Skubal really intrigues me as he has the K upside we covet and he’s taking on a pretty weak lineup.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: Akil Baddoo
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-121) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Rogers is one of my favorite under-the-radar SPs to use in DFS. There are people that auto skips over him because he pitches for the Marlins. He has the ability to shut down this Washington lineup but the issue is that the Nats are swinging it EXTREMELY well. What did I say before the start of the 2nd half about Juan Soto? The guy is scorching hot with 5 HRs through 4 games so far.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
D’Backs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Waiting on the ARI SP announcement shouldn’t matter too much. This game is pretty blah but there should be some mini-stacks that make sense for GPP purposes. Arizona has hit LHPs decently this season while the PIT lineup has struggled against most pitchers.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-145)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Blue Jays – Thomas Hatch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Once again this game should be extremely popular and I am going to eat the chalk. By eating the chalk, I mean I am going to do my best to go overweight on the field. Boston lit up the Blue Jays pitching yesterday and while that could happen again, I still prefer to pick on Richards. The Blue Jays have some strong BvP against him.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs (-108) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Trevor Williams
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cubs just look like they’ve given up for the most part. St Louis has a team that can make a run in the 2nd half to get back into it and there’s some strong BvP in their favor against Williams. We know the Cubs have some guys with double-dong upside so we always should consider them.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Dodgers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against LHPs this season.
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-172)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know the White Sox are favored and they should be a popular stack but I am going to hitch my wagon to the Twins bats against an LHP. They have some strong BvP at the top of the order and HRs could come in bunches. Tim Anderson is scorching hot for the White Sox.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros (-172)
Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am going to surprise people and play a decent amount of McKenzie in my GPP builds. He offers us impressive K upside and the HOU lineup can go cold at times. Garcia has been really solid for HOU and he makes a ton of sense against a pretty average CLE lineup.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Bradley Zimmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics (-135)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Athletics – James Kapriellian
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The early game in Oakland makes me want bats more than the SPs. The issue is that Kapriellian is the best SP on the early slate but he has been strong so I guess it makes sense. He could benefit by facing the Angels on a quick turnaround after Ohtani pitched last night. I could see Ohtani getting the day off.
LAA 5-star plays: David Fletcher
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-172)
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I honestly could see this game ending up 4-3 with some solid K numbers from the pitching staff. I also could really see a 7-5 type game with a few HRs being hit. Living in Wisconsin, I have to deal with Brewers fans and it drives me insane because I look at the lineup they run out daily and just shake my head. How are they performing this way? At some point the analysis goes out the window and you just have to believe a team is going to keep playing above their head.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-121) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Nola coming off of the IL but he’s pitching on the road. He gets to take on a battered and sick NYY squad who could run out a lineup with 4 guys that most of the DFS world had never heard of. German is a capable arm and his price intrigues me a bit but PHI has a dangerous offense. Very tough to get a read on this game early in the morning.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies (-177)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Marquez is ALWAYS on my list when he pitches at home. He isn’t some elite SP but he knows how to pitch at home and he’s capable of being in the GPP winning lineup. The Rockies are best against LHPs so that doesn’t sit well for Gonzales but it’s also not like they are elite.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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