Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 7/1:
Aug 26, 2020; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) pitches in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom – What’s not to like about deGrom this season… other than his checkered injury issues. He has a 0.69 ERA and a 0.53 WHIP heading into this one to go along with a 41.7% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. He’s pretty clearly the best pitcher on the slate, the matchup isn’t the greatest against the Braves, but he’s proven to be pretty matchup proof. In this matchup two outings ago he threw 70 pitches on his way to 25.5 DraftKings points. If you can afford deGrom, I would get there.
- Corbin Burnes – We’re getting a pretty heavy discount on Burnes on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, but he’s in play on both sites honestly. He matches up with a Pittsburgh team that has been below average all season long. Burnes is second on the slate, right behind deGrom, with a 37.9% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. The Pirates have been known to be a bit pesky this season, but it’s really hard not to like Burnes here and has a pretty heavy win equity with the way the Brewers are playing right now.
- Johnny Cueto – I can’t say Cueto is the sexiest option on the slate, but I think he gets you there more times than not if you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 option. He matches up with an Arizona team that probably has the worst offense on the slate, especially with Marte now on the IL again. The price on Cueto is much better on DraftKings, but a guy you can get to on both sites. He has a quality start in three of his last five outings and now has back-to-back wins, going at least six innings in both those games.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Los Angeles Angels (+160) @ New York Yankees (-175)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 4.3 IRT
Yankees – 5.8 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll kick this split slate of baseball off with Griffin Canning and the Angels heading into New York to take on Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees. I somewhat think you can make a case for Canning as a tournament SP2 option here, the only thing that worries me is the ballpark and the Yankees have begun to swing the bats better as of late, but I do like Canning’s stuff when he’s right. Ultimately, I think the weather will keep me away from pitching in this one however, the Weather Station gives this game a 60 for delay risk possibility which is killer for a pitcher. That being said, I think we can pretty safely avoid Montgomery as well and focus on the bats in this one.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: I don’t hate a mini-stack or one-offs here simply due to how well Ohtani is hitting right now, he’s capable of keeping this lineup turning over… I just don’t love the bottom of this lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: A full-stack is probably in play here, the Yankees have started to swing the bats much better as of late.
Seattle Mariners (+162) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-177)
Implied Run Totals:
Mariners – 4.1 IRT
Blue Jays – 5.5 IRT
Rundown:
Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Mariners in this one against a really tough Blue Jays lineup, in most cases I would have interest in Kikuchi, but a 5.5 implied run total for the Blue Jays is enough to scare me off of him. I do have some interest in Hyun-jun Ryu on the other side of this one, however. Ryu is really cheap, particularly on DraftKings, and has thrown at least six innings in four straight games with a quality start in three of those four. He now gets a matchup with a pretty weak Mariners offense and carries a 22.7% strikeout rate into this one. I like me some Ryu on the early slate.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Just one-offs, I’ll have a good amount of interest in Ryu here.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Kikuchi has been really good lately, so I don’t want to go too crazy here, but I do think a full-stack is in play if you’re looking to MME on this short early slate.
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Kansas City Royals (+190) @ Boston Red Sox (-230)
Implied Run Totals:
Royals – 4.1 IRT
Red Sox – 6.2 IRT
Rundown:
Kris Bubic will start for the Royals as they make their way to Fenway to take on the Red Sox in this one. I think you can pretty safely avoid Bubic here, he hasn’t scored double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games. The Red Sox are probably the top stack on the early slate by a decent margin. Nathan Eovaldi is interesting however, he comes in as a massive favorite and carries a 23.4% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. He’s not my favorite pitcher on the early slate because I do respect this Royals lineup, but I think he’s playable at the very least.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: The Royals are a nice source of value with some underpriced bats with upside.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: There isn’t much to not like about the Sox here, go ahead and fire them up.
Minnesota Twins (+129) @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 3.9 IRT
White Sox – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
We have a pretty good pitching matchup here with Jose Berrios going for the Twins and Carlos Rodon going for the White Sox. Berrios has been really good as of late, throwing at least six innings in five straight games and I think the public gives this White Sox offense more credit than they probably deserve. After you get past Abreu, it’s not so pretty at the bottom of this lineup, I like Berrios a lot here. Rodon continues to pitch great as well, and the same can be said for this Twins lineup, they’re nowhere near what they were last season when you couldn’t throw any pitchers against them, Rodon is a great option on this early slate as well and I would have no issue pairing these guys in your lineups.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Rodon than anything from the Twins here.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Similar story here, although a min price Gavin Sheets is interesting as a salary saver.
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Texas Rangers (+164) @ Oakland Athletics (-179)
Implied Run Totals:
Rangers – 3.4 IRT
Athletics – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
This game is only on the DraftKings early slate, so if you’re on FanDuel you’ll have to play the all-day slate to get some action here. Dane Dunnings will take the mound for the Rangers here, and I think is a guy that you can somewhat make a case for on DraftKings if you’re looking for a full punt SP2 option. He’s been serviceable this season and gets a massive ballpark in Oakland. He has a 24.5% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, don’t expect a ton from him, but I think you’re feeling good if he gets you double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings. Sean Manaea will get the start for the A’s in this one, and a guy I like a good amount. He has at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and this Rangers offense isn’t afraid of striking out. You get a discount on him from the Rodon/Berrios combo as well.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Manaea here, but Gallo has been swinging a hot bat if you’re looking for a one-off.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: I’d probably lean to a mini-stack here to pair with your main stacks.
Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) @ Washington Nationals (+125)
Implied Run Totals:
Dodgers – 5.2 IRT
Nationals – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll kick off the main slate with Tony Gonsolin getting the ball for the Dodgers. Gonsolin has been pretty underwhelming to start the season but has looked better and better with each game. I don’t think you’ll want to play him on DraftKings at that price tag, but you get a pretty massive discount on him over on FanDuel if you’re looking to get crazy at your pitcher spot in tournaments. I would keep an eye on the Weather Station here though, it looks like there will be some rain in the forecast. Patrick Corbin will start for the Nationals here and a guy that has been all over the place this season. He’s looked good over his past three starts but I don’t think he’s a guy I’ll be all that heavy on here considering the other pitching options we have.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: I probably won’t be full-stacking the Dodgers, but there are some pieces in the lineup I like if you’re looking at a mini-stack or two.
WAS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: The first three in this order are pretty scary and make for an interesting stack especially if you wrap it with Robles at the bottom for some additional speed upside.
Milwaukee Brewers (-250) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+224)
Implied Run Totals:
Brewers – 5.0 IRT
Pirates – 3.1 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Corbin Burnes at the beginning of the article, he’s a top pitcher on the slate for me. Not only does he get a below-average Pirates team, but he gets them in their pitcher-friendly ballpark. I know there is some spin-rate stuff with Burnes, but I think he takes advantage of the Pirates here tonight. Wil Crowe will start for the Pirates and probably not a guy I’ll have much interest in, although he did pitch well in this matchup the last time these two teams faced. The Brewers are just playing really good baseball right now so I’m not sure what the upside is for you by dumpster diving down to him.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: I hate stacking in this ballpark, but I think you can make a case for the Brewers in GPPs… they put up 15 runs against the Cubs yesterday.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: All the Burnes in this one for me.
Houston Astros (-175) @ Cleveland Indians (+160)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 4.9 IRT
Indians – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
Serious question, when’s the last time the Astros faced a serviceable starting pitcher? It feels like every day we’re looking at chalky Astros stacks, but that’s beside the point. Framber Valdez will get the start for Houston here in a pretty good spot against Cleveland’s below-average offense. Valdez has a quality start in five straight outings and a guy I think you can get to as a pivot off of deGrom and Burnes if you’re looking to get different. The Indians will send Jean Carlos Mejia to the mound here, and probably just going to be a guy I stay away from, the Astros have been good offensively as of late.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I have no issue with an Astros stack here, the Indians won’t have much help behind Mejia if they get to him early.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Just one-offs, Valdez has been good this season.
San Diego Padres (+107) @ Cincinnati Reds (-115)
Implied Run Totals:
Padres – 4.4 IRT
Reds – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
Ryan Weathers will get the start for the dads here but comes in as an underdog against a pretty solid Reds offense. I do like the talent that Weathers brings to the table, but I’m just not sure I want to go with him on a pretty good pitching slate. You can probably make a case for him if you’re MME’ing. The Reds will send Luis Castillo to the mind in this one and has rebounded a bit since the start of the season when he was lost on the mound. He has a quality start in four of his last five games and the price tag on FanDuel is really intriguing even in this matchup against a good Padres lineup.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Tommy Pham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: If Castillo becomes popular, the Padres are an elite leverage stack. But I do think I’ll have some Castillo interest in tournaments at the very least.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Jonathan India, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: I have no issue with a Reds stack in this one.
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New York Mets (-158) @ Atlanta Braves (+145)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – 4.0 IRT
Braves – 3.1 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on deGrom at the top of this article as well, it’s just so hard to ignore him the way he is pitching right now. The Braves lineup can put up runs…. as we saw when they put up 20 yesterday, but deGrom is the ultimate buzzsaw. I get it if you want to pivot to guys like Burnes and Valdez, but I’m riding the talent here with deGrom. Ian Anderson gets the start here for the Braves, he has at least 37 FanDuel points in four of his last five games and this Mets lineup doesn’t scare me all that much, so I think you can make a case for him as your SP2 on tonight’s slate.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: I think the Mets make sense as a secondary stack due to how underpriced some of their main guys are, even if you want to jam a Burnes/deGrom combo, I think the Mets stack makes that work.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Why stack against deGrom?
St. Louis Cardinals (-123) @ Colorado Rockies (+114)
Implied Run Totals:
Cardinals – 5.8 IRT
Rockies – 5.3 IRT
Rundown:
To Coors we go! I don’t think we really want to have interest in either Adam Wainwright or Anthony Senzatela, but I can see people having some interest in Wainwright due to the production he’s put up this season. He’s in great form as well, but he’s a guy with a big curveball that he relies on, curveballs go to die in Coors… so I’ll go ahead and fade both of these guys. Both offenses are in play here and probably two of the better stacks on the slate.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: This Cardinals lineup has been pretty non-existent this season, but this is a great spot for them to bounce back… and Arenado returns to Colorado!
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I like the Cardinals side of this one a bit more, but no issue going with the Rockies as well.
San Francisco Giants (-137) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+126)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 4.9 IRT
Dbacks – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Johnny Cueto at the start of this article, and as I mentioned, he’s not a sexy play but he’s been solid this season and this Diamondbacks lineup is not good especially with Marte out. Merrill Kelly gets the start for the Dbacks and just not a guy I’ll be interested in here. The Giants have been pesky this season, and that’s probably putting it gently, this Giants team can hit and win games… so no on Kelly for me here.
SFG 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: No issue if you want to stack the Giants as a GPP stack, but they wouldn’t my at the top of my list.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Cueto in this one, but there are some cheap one-offs you can make a case for.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- St. Louis Cardinals: Yes I know it’s pretty obvious, the away team in Coors, but man I like the Cardinals a lot in this spot. They have an implied run total of 5.8 in this one against Senzatela who comes in with a 4.76 ERA. Going back to the start of last season Senzatela has a 37.5% hard contact rate and this Cardinals lineup has some big bats in it that can make him pay in a humid Coors field tonight.
- Houston Astros: As I mentioned in the game breakdown, it feels like we’re stacking the Astros every day lately, but they’ve just been getting bad pitchers each and every night. Tonight they get Jean Carlos Mejia who has a 4.94 ERA on the season to go along with a poor bullpen behind him. The Astros will be in for a big night if they can get to Mejia early and often and they have some nice value bats in there to make the stack work with an elite SP1 as well.
- New York Mets: The Mets are going to be more of a pricing play than anything for me in this one. We get guys like McNeil, Conforto, and Dom Smith in the middle of this lineup for discounts on what their normal price tags would be. These guys help make a Burnes/Valdez/deGrom pitching combination work and it’s not like these guys are bat hitters like you would expect in this price range. Ian Anderson has shown to be volatile this season as well, so I like the Mets quite a bit in this spot.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Dominic Smith (DK – $3.4k; FD – $2.8k)
I just touched on Dom Smith and the Mets here but I do think this is a nice spot for them despite the discount we’re getting on guys like Smith. Smith has hit righties this season really well with a 0.526 SLG and a 0.242 ISO. He only has six home runs on the season… he’s going to make it seven tonight, LOCK. IT. IN. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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