Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/19:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kyle Gibson
- Kevin Gausman
- Shohei Ohtani
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-216)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really think that TB is a sneaky squad to stack up in this one. We know that the Orioles can give up some HRs and the Rays are very streaky in the power department. Yarbrough is just an option, one that doesn’t excite me but he’s been solid against most of Baltimore.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Braves – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Pitchers:
Mets – Jerad Eickhoff
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5.
NYM 5-star plays: JD Davis
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers (-111) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: David Dahl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Nationals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chase de Jong
D’Backs – Caleb Smith
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Going to love stacking this game multiple ways on this slate. The Blue Jays are such an extremely dangerous squad while Boston has plenty of pop and upside in their lineup as well. Both SPs have flashed upside this season but this just doesn’t feel like the right spot to use either of them.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs (-111) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I believe this game could go somewhat overlooked and that intrigues me greatly. Woodford was a name that STL thought highly of previously but he hasn’t put it together just yet. Contreras has seen him just a few times and has 2 HRs off of him. Mills is a guy that I can never figure out as he’s like the right-handed version of Wade Miley.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-121)
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Gausman has been a stud with the Giants but he was scratched to begin the second half so that has me a bit worried. I do realize it was for a family emergency situation but that can still mess with a pitcher’s routine. He has 11 Ks in 11 innings against LA this year while allowing just 3 runs. Gonsolin has allowed 1 run or fewer in every appearance so far and he could see up to 90 pitches in this game.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-203) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Griffin Jax
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. The Twins have struggled with the White Sox a TON this season and now they go up against the AL ERA leader in Lance Lynn. This game screams ALL the White Sox at this point.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
White Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros (-219)
Pitchers:
Indians – JC Mejia
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. If the Astros were rolling at the plate, they’d be one of the more popular stacks on the slate. I think they go lower owned than they should tonight and I may have to slide them up in my rankings as the day goes on. Greinke is a guy that should get knocked around but yet he avoids it generally. He has actually struggled a TON this season at home.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Bradley Zimmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels (-120) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be honest, this game sucks. The reason I say that is that Ohtani is pitching, which means we can’t use him as a hitter and he’s strong enough that I can’t go to my normal OAK stack around Matt Olson (who is 0 for 8 with 5 Ks against Ohtani). I can get behind an LAA mini-stack against Irvin.
LAA 5-star plays: David Fletcher
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Trey Mancini, Baltimore
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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