Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Chris Bassitt
- Zack Wheeler
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Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals (-142)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Royals have started out the 2nd half scoring some runs and they get the artist formerly known as Matt Harvey (he’s still Matt Harvey but he is no longer THE Matt Harvey). Hernandez at min-price on DK is intriguing to me as he threw well in his last appearance, nearly 2 weeks ago. He could get up to 5 innings I would assume and that price tag is just really inviting.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (EVEN) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Rays – Rich Hill
Braves – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I can honestly see a route to both offenses putting up GPP winning totals and both SPs doing the same thing. We know that TB strikes out at a decent clip against LHPs while the Braves losing Acuna really hurts them against LHPs as he’s replaced by Joc Pederson now. If I have to choose right now, I prefer the Braves bats.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think this game ends up a pitcher’s duel as Gray is coming off of the IL and we know how dominant Burnes has been this season. I have zero desire to stack either offense and I will focus on picking up the one-off that HRs in this ballpark. Burnes has GPP winning upside while Gray might not have a normal leash, since he’s returning from the IL.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-240) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Blue Jays and Ryu are massive home favorites after the break. We should see the Blue Jays near the top of most stacking lists on this slate with a very attractive team total and such an explosive offense. I don’t see a reason to stack against Ryu but I could argue using a one-off and hoping for that HR against him. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, John Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-219) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, John Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (EVEN) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. What a senseless act outside of Saturday’s game as a shooting led to the suspension of the game being played. I do hope those who were injured make a full recovery. I honestly do not know if that means this game is going to be a 7-inning game or not yet. We will need to get clarification but by the looks of the total, I assume it’s a traditional game. We get a strong SP match-up and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the game creep near a 7.5 total.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
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New York Mets (-156) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I don’t love either side as far as offenses go but I can make a case for a mini-stack, especially of the Mets. I think Brubaker gets overlooked and I will always have some shares because he flashes upside. Walker gets a very plus match-up and he should carry a decent amount of ownership.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Sunday night game should see some runs scored as both SPs are capable of getting hit around a bit. There are a few bats in this game that have very strong BvPs in their favor. The Yankees bats are a bit cold right now so that should play into our decision-making a bit.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-121) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Cardinals – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Looking at the SPs going in this game, you would think I would be interested in stacking the offenses. I would prefer to stack SF but I don’t really like either side as a full stack. Now when we talk about mini-stacks, I can put together a few combinations from both sides that offer the upside we covet.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-177) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – David Price
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Price looks like he should be around the 65 pitch mark in this game so I am thinking about 4 innings. Gray has thrown better at home but this Dodgers squad is swinging it really well and are extremely dangerous. I do think they play without Betts after he left Saturday’s game early.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I like both of these LHPs as Rodon has been awesome this season and Valdez is capable of shutting anybody down. I don’t think I want to stack either offense but there are certainly interesting one-offs or mini-stacks from each side. Houston intrigues me a little bit because Rodon can walk a few guys and all it takes is one or two mistake pitches and you get a couple of 3-run HRs.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
Waiting on the Marlins starting SP.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Oakland Athletics (-157)
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Much like yesterday, I expect this one to be a pitcher’s duel as Bassitt has been a stud for the A’s all season and Plesac is definitely capable of shutting down an opposing offense. We do know that the ball flies a lot better during the day in Oakland so we could see a couple of HRs. Guys like Reyes and Olson are the best bets for those HRs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs (-111) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cubs have K’d 21 times over the last 2 games so we know that Kelly could put up a respectable start but I just don’t think either pitcher is strong enough for consideration. I know that Davies has a no-hitter (part of one) on his resume this season and we know that it came against the Dodgers. We also know that the Diamondbacks are NOT the Dodgers in terms of danger at the plate.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Tough to ignore how hot a couple of the LAA bats have been but Gilbert is coming off of a very strong start before the All-Star break. He has a ton of talent and is one of the Mariners’ top prospects. Sandoval has K upside but he has some lapses as well. I could see this game finishing with 6 runs total or I could see it ending up a 7-5 type game. Fletcher has been absolutely scorching at the plate.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-125) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – JA Happ
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This game has a massive total considering the teams that are playing. I always find reasons to stack the Twins and while this is just another day to do that, Peralta has thrown the ball rather well for Detroit this season. He was once a prized Brewers prospect with a big-time arm and movement.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Kansas City Royals
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Cody Bellinger, LA Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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