Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Walker Buehler
- Kwang Hyun Kim
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Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals (-127)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I expect KC to be somewhat popular from an offensive stack standpoint due to who they are facing. I do think the Orioles could be a sneaky GPP stack, but I also think that Singer has some upside for GPP purposes. This is a game that has a decent total but I think it’s better to go the mini-stack route.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-105) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think this game is ripe for some one-offs and mini-stacks but also I do think it stays lower scoring. TB can strike out quite a bit against LHPs so Fried has to be somebody that appeals to us for his upside. Fleming doesn’t excite me a ton because we don’t really know how deep he is going to go.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-121) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Woodruff is coming off of an All-Star selection and a very strong 1st half. This game has one of the lower totals on the slate but I think there could be some sneaky runs put up here. We get a small ballpark and a guy like Castillo can struggle mightily. The Brewers’ offense just keeps producing and I am not sure how based on the look of the lineup.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 at home this season.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-219)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Blue Jays and Ryu are massive home favorites after the break. We should see the Blue Jays near the top of most stacking lists on this slate with a very attractive team total and such an explosive offense. I don’t see a reason to stack against Ryu but I could argue using a one-off and hoping for that HR against him.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, John Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-130) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Snell on the road has been absolutely atrocious so far this season and add in that he’s been dealing with some sort of illness issue and you get another spot where I might end up on the Nationals slightly more. The Padres exploded yesterday and that should automatically increase their ownerships for today.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
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New York Mets (-172) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Mets are going to be an attractive GPP stack with an increased team total but they did have Lindor get hurt yesterday. If this Mets team ever starts getting hot at the plate, they could be a great stack for a week or 10 days with guys like Smith-Alonso-Conforto right in the middle. Pittsburgh has a great mini-stack in Reynolds-Frazier.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-118)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Yesterday’s game ended up playing, which certainly caught me off guard. Cole finished the first half with a monster performance to silence some of the critics and the substance talks. Eovaldi is a guy who throws a hard fastball but it’s surprising how he has given up so few HRs on the season.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-121) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get another sneaky good SP match-up in this game today. DeSclafani has had a pretty impressive season with the Giants so far and Kim is capable of shutting down nearly anybody that he faces. Kim just doesn’t go super deep, for the most part. The Cardinals have seen DeSclafani quite a bit so they do have some positive BvP.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-255) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. I expect the Dodgers to have a big-time second half of the season. They get to start out in a great spot for offense and that’s scary for Colorado. I don’t want to overthink this spot for the Dodgers so I want to be overweight on them compared to the field in GPPs. Really shocked to see the game started by Buehler with a higher opening total than yesterday’s game, started by Urias for the Dodgers.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (EVEN) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Odorizzi has really picked it up over the last month or so and while Giolito can struggle and has had some issues in the substance discussion, I think he’s capable of holding this HOU lineup in check. Odorizzi faces the weaker overall lineup but he’s not in the same class as Giolito is when it comes to pitcher rankings.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Brian Goodwin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-111)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see the total so high as both of the offenses have been pretty weak overall. I do expect PHI to wake up a bit in the 2nd half while the Marlins do have some sneaky options at the top of their lineup. At some point Harper is going to get super hot and hit 7 HRs over a week and a half stretch.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Oakland Athletics (-172)
Pitchers:
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Montas is capable of putting up impressive performances and we should know in the first inning or two if he’s on today. The thing that stands out here is the earlier start time in OAK and that generally means the ball flies a bit more. The A’s should be popular again today and I think I want to be overweight on them.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs (-143) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We need to monitor these teams as both should be active in the trade market. The Cubs just dealt Joc Pederson away yesterday so there could be a few more moves that happen. Alzolay intrigues me because we know how bad ARI is overall and Gallen is a guy that has a TON of talent but he isn’t able to stay healthy this season. He could surprise with a strong performance against a Cubs team that can strike out.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Cobb has been really good at home so far this season and I am not sure people have realized that. He could be a sneaky option tonight, depending on his price points around the industry. Kikuchi is always capable of shutting down a team just enough and this game lacks a big total so I could see both guys performing well enough for us.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-115) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Charlie Barnes
Tigers – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. Barnes is making his season debut with the Twins while Urena is just a weak SP at this point. The Twins have a few guys that have hit Urena EXTREMELY well so I love the idea of stacking them, even in a 7-inning game.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Tigers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. Maeda stands out to me with how he threw the ball to close the first half and the fact he’s taking on the Tigers in a shortened game.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Mets
- Washington Nationals
MLB Dinger of the Day – AJ Pollock, LA Dodgers
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