Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Bassitt
- Kevin Gausman
- Robbie Ray
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Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals (-119)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Royals – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We don’t know who is going to start for a bunch of teams yet today and the Royals are one of them. I expect KC to be somewhat popular from an offensive stack standpoint due to who they are facing. I do think the Orioles could be a sneaky GPP stack, depending on who takes the mound for KC.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Morton takes on his former team and could be in line for a strong performance. The Braves are dealing with the injury to Acuna Jr and the loss of him for the season. Teams that lose their star player generally hit a wall at some point and just start to coast. They just traded for Joc Pederson so that tells me they still feel like they are in the hunt.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Undecided
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 at home this season.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-219)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Blue Jays and Ray are massive home favorites after the break. We should see the Blue Jays near the top of most stacking lists on this slate with a very attractive team total and such an explosive offense. I don’t see a reason to stack against Ray but I could argue using a one-off and hoping for that HR against him.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, John Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-140) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The majority of people will be targeting the Padres offense in this one. While I can’t argue against that much at all, I think I want to be on the Washington side with the top of their order. I just don’t think Paddack is a strong SP and he is definitely hitable. I have a gut feeling that Soto has a monster second half.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
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New York Mets (-148) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Pirates – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We do not know who the Pirates are going to send to the mound but Vegas thinks this game is going to be somewhat lower scoring. A few Pirates bats have hit Stroman well and they make an intriguing mini-stack option. Alonso winning the HR derby again could energize him to begin the 2nd half.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 against PIT this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez or Martin Perez
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am not going to lie, I do expect this game to be PPD after yesterday’s game was PPD due to COVID protocols. Coming out of the All-Star break is a tough time because of the interactions players had, either at the All-Star game or on “vacation”.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-132) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really like this as a pitcher’s duel as both of these SPs is very capable of putting up strong numbers. Gausman has been an absolute stud for the Giants and Wainwright is far stronger at home this season. I could see using a bat or two as one-offs from each side but I don’t think we need to be stacking either team.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. I expect the Dodgers to have a big-time second half of the season. They get to start out in a great spot for offense and that’s scary for Colorado. I don’t want to overthink this spot for the Dodgers so I want to be overweight on them compared to the field in GPPs. Colorado bats are interesting as Urias has shown some struggles at times this season and a few of them hit LHPs well.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-125) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these SPs are very capable and could be in GPP winning lineups tonight. I trust McCullers a bit more, despite being on the road. With that being said, we also know that both of these offenses are capable of putting up strong performances and taking down GPPs. I much prefer the Astros lineup as the White Sox have dealt with too many big-name injuries.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-111) @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Phillies – Matt Moore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Remember that this game is a 7-inning game. Alcantara is definitely the better SP but he also takes on the better offense overall. I think mini-stacks of both teams are viable if this game is on any DFS slate. A few of the Phillies bats have had success against Alcantara in their careers.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Oakland Athletics (-195)
Pitchers:
Indians – Eli Morgan
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bassitt and the A’s should be extremely popular on this slate. We have picked on Morgan quite a bit and Bassitt has been a beast this season, coming off of an All-Star game selection. Matt Olson disappointed me in the HR derby but it was because he was hitting line drives everywhere and that bodes well for his second half.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs (-140) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We need to monitor these teams as both should be active in the trade market. The Cubs just dealt Joc Pederson away yesterday so there could be a few more moves that happen. Hendricks intrigues me enough because Arizona has been pretty weak against RHPs all season long. The Cubs have a few guys that can hit LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-153)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think both of these SPs are capable options for GPP purposes while also thinking that each team has mini-stack potential. Haniger has hit Heaney pretty well in his career and on the other side, we get Ohtani and a red-hot Fletcher at the top of their lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-115) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Charlie Barnes
Tigers – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. Barnes is making his season debut with the Twins while Urena is just a weak SP at this point. The Twins have a few guys that have hit Urena EXTREMELY well so I love the idea of stacking them, even in a 7-inning game.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Tigers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. Maeda stands out to me with how he threw the ball to close the first half and the fact he’s taking on the Tigers in a shortened game.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- TORONTO BLUE JAYS
- LOS ANGELES DODGERS
- WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Washington
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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