Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
KSCOREs are going up and SIERAs & statcast numbers are going down, which means we’ll have to look a little harder for pitchers to attack today. That also means we have quite a few pitchers to use for tournaments, as we have a few that will be in decent spots to rack up some strikeouts, but will be going up against some offenses that should keep their ownership down. All in all, it’ll be a good slate, but might take a little extra leg work to narrow things down to find the right combos.
For the late slates we have a similar story; for tournaments we have, well, pretty much the same idea as the main slate, so it might not be a bad idea to focus more on one of these slates if it can be helped. Creative use of pitching and secondary stacks will probably win the day, with some chalk showing up in the main stacks. It’s tough to recommend a solid cash game pitcher without diving in a bit, but that’s what the coach’s notes are for!
Main slates
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with our Camden Yards game. While I do think Baltimore has more of a fighting chance in this one, I think the White Sox will prevail in the mid/late game. Still, it’s always a good ballpark for the bats, so be sure to have at least some exposure to both of these offenses – even if just a one-off.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Goodwin
GPP note – Watkins has been stingy, but stacks are still in play here for the ballpark and mid/late game pitching they will see
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Mountcastle, Mullins
GPP note – Reverse splits are in play here, as Cease has been softer to righties
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
The Braves and Marlins are up next, and we have what could be our first ‘under’ of the day. Neither starting pitcher has allowed a ton, and we know both of these offenses are capable of putting up an absolute dud on any given day. I think the Braves can edge them out, even if only by a run or two, but I don’t know that we’ll see a ton of offensive fireworks here.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Riley
GPP note – Lopez has been tough but has allowed some power to righties, so don’t be afraid to roll out some of them
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Duvall
GPP note – Anderson hasn’t allowed a whole heck of a lot to either side, so smaller picks/stacks might be best here
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Up next are the Pirates and Mets, and while I’m not yet sure who the Mets will be rolling out to pitch, I do think that the Mets are in a pretty favorable spot here, so I like some exposure here. If not a primary stack, I think a mini-stack could help win the day, so give them a look and see if you agree.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Frazier
GPP note – Not sure who they’ll be facing as of yet, but these guys aren’t overly scary, so do your research before jumping all over them
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo
GPP note – Chase has been pretty weak to both sides, but even more to righties than lefties. This is a good spot for the Mets to tee off
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
Up next are two quality pitchers and the Phillies/Red Sox, though this one is a little tricky. Both pitchers have shown some weaknesses as of late, so we’ll see which offense can jump on them. Otherwise, both pitchers are among the best KSCOREs on the day, so if they’re on their game, they could see good outings. It’s a good game to exposure to all sides of it, even if just a little.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Gregorius
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but Pivetta is allowing power to both sides of the plate, so you can grab a couple lower-owned bats here that have a decent chance to go long
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Martinez, Renfroe
GPP note – Nola is getting his strikeouts but his statcast numbers aren’t great, so going after lower strikeout rate bats could prove useful. Slightly favor reverse splits for lower ownership
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Up next are the Blue Jays and Rays, and after losing last night, I think the Blue Jays will come out swinging here. They certainly have the better matchup, so look to them to be a little chalky. The Rays have a tougher matchup against Robbie, who does give up some power on occasion, so it’s not a terrible idea to game stack this one a little.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Semien, Gurriel
GPP note – Pretty good spot for these righties to do some damage, so stack away
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Choi, Meadows, Franco, Lowe, Diaz
GPP note – Ray gives up a little bit of power here and there, but overall a tough one to crack with a good strikeout rate to boot. The bats are running warm enough to use them, but full stacks may be limited here
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Another game where I’m not sure who one of the starting pitchers will be, but as a Royals fan, I can say that whoever they roll out…probably won’t be much of a threat to the Tribe here. I do think some of the KC bats will be in a decent spot (namely the righties), but they’ll have their work cut out for them to keep up. I could see another game with a good chunk of scoring, so feel free to go right back to these guys. However, it does look like we may run into some weather concerns here, so keep your eyes peeled.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield, Santana, Soler
GPP note – Big reverse splits here, so grab a power righty or two
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Hernandez, Reyes
GPP note – Whoever they get out of the bullpen probably won’t be able to hold them down, so you can probably go here yet again
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
We get another matchup between these two big-name teams, but this time the Astros might have the upper hand with the pitching. However, I do think the bats will have the final say here, as there are weaknesses to both of these pitchers. I think we’ll see a bit more than the one-to-nothing score we got last night.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Sanchez, LeMahieu
GPP note – Valdez has good statcast numbers but also isn’t a huge strikeout force, which means there is plenty of contact going on here. Put some big bags to use here, since they’ll have a good chance to make something happen
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Altuve, Correa
GPP note – You can attack Taillon from either side, as he’s about equal to both sides of the plate. I expect them to bounce back after being shut out at home by their former pitcher
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Another game where I think we might see the under, the Reds and Brewers are up next, with two fairly strong pitchers taking the mound. There are some small areas you could take a shot with, like Woodruff having some reverse splits working against him, but in the end I think the pitchers will have a better day than the batters will.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Winker, Castellanos
GPP note – Not the best pitcher to attack, but he’s got some reverse splits going on, so this is still a viable stack option
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Peterson
GPP note – Not a very good spot for big stacks. Maybe grab a bat or two and move on to another offense
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
The Tigers and Twins are next, and we switch gears here with a game that looks to favor the batters over pitchers. The Twins will certainly have some ownership, but I think the Tigers would be a decent place to grab a few lower-owned bats that are still in a decent spot to do something. Maybe not full stacks, but certainly a viable option to compliment your chalkier stacks. Of course, it is Detroit, so having some shares of Berrios is a good idea too, as he might walk out of here with another 10+ strikeout game.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Grossman, Candelario
GPP note – Berrios is allowing a lot of power to lefties, so grabbing some of those bats could give you a lower-owned decent score
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Kepler
GPP note – Peralta is also allowing some good power to lefties, though these bats might be more popular
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Up next are the Cardinals and extra-volatile Cubs, who will probably have a good amount of people mad enough at them to just fade them outright. While that might not be a bad idea against Wainwright, who is no pushover, it does mean they should have lower ownership, if you’re looking to be a day late to the party. As for the Cardinals, they’re in a good spot to do some damage again, so feel free to go right back to them, too.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Molina
GPP note – Williams is pitching weak to both sides, but is giving up a lot more power to righties
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Baez, Rizzo
GPP note – Not a great spot, but after the dud last night, they will probably go overlooked here, so you’ll have them mostly to yourself if you decide to go with them
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Another game that might just favor the pitching, the Athletics and Rangers are up next, and while these two aren’t big name guys like Cole or Kershaw, they do find themselves in a spot to have a decent outing. Bassitt has two recent quality starts against the Rangers, and while Allard is allowing some hits, his strikeout rate has been improving and he’s flashed some solid upside recently. I think both are worth a look in tournaments here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Andrus
GPP note – Allard has been improving and isn’t a soft target by any means, so big stacks from other offenses might be the ticket. Some exposure here wouldn’t be bad, but maybe one-offs or mini-stacks
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – Bassitt has done well against these bats, so maybe grab some Gallo and get out
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Late slate
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
We’ll kick off the late slate with the Nationals and Giants, and while the pitching favors the home team, the visitors have the edge in hitting. I think this one will be close, with not a ton of scoring, which makes me like it as a source for one-offs and mini-stacks to go with your chalkier main stacks. We’ll see what Vegas has to say in the morning, but for now, keep them in mind on this small slate.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Turner, Bell
GPP note – Gausman has been tough, but some of these bats have been running fairly hot. Some smaller stacks could work well here if they can get to him or the bullpen later
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Crawford, Yastrzemski, Dickerson
GPP note – Decent spot for the lefties here, which could be a good source of lower-owned bats to tie together some chalkier lineups
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
The Angels and Mariners are up next, and we could see a fair amount of fireworks here. Suarez has some spots to attack (especially for the lefties), and whoever it is that the Mariners roll out, probably won’t be somebody who can stop this team in their tracks. I think both offenses are worth a good look here.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh, Fletcher, Stassi
GPP note –
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Seager/Crawford/Long/Fraley (LvL)
GPP note – Not the most fun team to stack, but Suarez has some bad reverse splits, so grabbing a few lefties here could prove useful.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Gray and the Rockies will take on Weathers and the Padres next, and while they haven’t done a whole heck of a lot, I think this could be a spot where the Rockies take another win on their way out of town. Gray has looked better lately, and while it has been against weaker offenses, momentum is momentum, and that could carry over here. Weathers is allowing plenty, so it could be a good spot for this offense to do something. All that said, the Padres do have a solid offense, and Gray is still allowing some power, so don’t take this note as a means to fade them. Both offenses are worth a look here, as well as Gray for hedge lineups.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Story
GPP note – These bats have been anything but hot, but Weathers has been soft enough to maybe help them turn around. He’s allowing a lot of power to righties, so target the best ones you can afford with your chalkier stacks
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Pham
GPP note – Gray has looked better in his last starts against weaker offenses, but don’t let that scare you away from stacking here because he’s still giving up power to both sides of the plate
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Our last stop is in Los Angeles, as the Diamondbacks take on the Dodgers. It’s the same old story here with Arizona; there’s not much to get excited about, outside of being contrarian. And, well, it’s mostly the same ol’ for the Dodgers too; home team, favored, lots of expensive bats. However, Kelly does fare slightly worse against righties, so you could use some of them to try and be a little different with these popular bats.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, VanMeter
GPP note – Not much to love here. Maybe grab a strong bat or two and hope for the best? You’ll definitely have them all to yourself
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Turner
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Lux, Bellinger, Taylor
GPP note – These bats are always in play, but to be a little different, try using some righties against Kelly’s slightly worse reverse splits
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays – Pretty good spot for the righties here, though they won’t be sneaky by any means. There are, however, several places to go for lower-owned stacks to make these lineups stand out, so don’t be afraid to eat some chalk here
- New York Mets – Good spot for the Mets to do some damage, especially for the righties. Mix and match these guys for a well-rounded attack.
- St Louis Cardinals – They’ve enjoying some good scoring against the Cubs, and I don’t see Williams slowing them down much. Another good spot for them to post up some runs.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me today, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page today to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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