Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! As always, I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We have a wide variety of pitchers on both slates today, some good, some bad, and a few surprises mixed in here and there. You know, standard weekend baseball without the top of the rotation for each team.
For the early slates, we have several pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs, but only three pitchers with a 3.5 carnage score or better, and nobody with particularly strong x/wOBA stats. What does this mean? It means we have a wide selection of pitchers with lower-than-average floors, but also with high ceilings. In other words, it could be a pretty good slate for tournaments, but you might want to shy away from cash games if you aren’t comfortable without an ace on your lineup.
We have a little bit different scenario for the main slate, with Buehler looking like a stand-out option for all formats. He’s bound to be popular, so unless something weird happens, he’ll probably be your first choice for a cash game pitcher. There are only three pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs, and a few with 4.5+ SIERAs, so there could be some scoring on this smaller slate.
Early slates
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with the very early matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays. Unless you’re playing that (or the all day) slate, you won’t get much from this game, but we’ll glance at it anyway. Neither starting pitcher are allowing a whole lot to opposing teams, but Yarbrough does have some spots where he gives up power to both sides of the plate, so getting creative against him could prove beneficial.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Semien, Grichuk
GPP note – Cheaper bats with some power could be good ways to be different here, and there are a few.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Choi, Lowe
GPP note – Not a ton to love here; these guys aren’t blasting righties, and Stripling isn’t getting blasted himself. A one-off or mini-stack would probably be best.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Our next very early / all-day game features the Tigers and Twins. Neither of these pitchers are strangers to getting hit around, and Ober had his price jacked up due to the matchup here. He does have some nice strikeout stuff on occasion though, so at least hedging here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Grossman, Candelario
GPP note – This seems like a good spot to hedge; try some Tigers stacks in some lineups where you aren’t using Ober. This one could go either way.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Kepler, Donaldson, Arraez
GPP note – They won’t have a very threatening crew of pitchers going against them here, so Twins stacks are bound to be popular (for good reason)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
The Athletics and Rangers are up next, and speaking of weak pitching, we have some more of it here. Everyone, except for Texas righties, will be in a great spot to start this game, so you really can’t go wrong with exposure anywhere here. Well, except maybe the pitching. Might want to look elsewhere.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Lowrie, Chapman, Andrus
GPP note – While there aren’t any stand-out studs here, they’re all in a good spot, so big creative stacks (like wrap-arounds) would be good
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – Very similar to the A’s, most of these bats are kind of meh, except for Gallo. They’re also pretty cheap though, so grabbing some stacks here could quickly pay off.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
We head to Camden Yards for our next game, with the White Sox and Orioles facing off. This one looks to be pretty favorable for the visitors, as they’ll have Giolito as their starter, and they’ll face a guy who has had negative scoring in his last three games. This one could get ugly.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Grandal, Goodwin, Collins
GPP note – Bad pitching + solid hitting + Camden Yards = good recipe for lots of fantasy goodness. Matchup doesn’t really matter here, both sides of the plate are in a really good spot.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander
GPP note – Giolito is actually doing a little worse in RvR matchups, so if you want to dig up a one-off nobody else will be on, this would be the place to do it.
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Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Up next are the Nationals and Giants, with another split game in terms of starting pitching. This time it’s the home team with the advantage, as DeSclafani has looked pretty solid overall, with Lester struggling for a good part of the season. There are plenty of interesting options in this one though, so be sure to do some digging here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Bell, Escobar
GPP note – They’ll face some decent pitching here, so maybe don’t go nuts with big stacks, but some key picks in one-offs and mini-stacks could work wonders.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Slater, Ruf, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Lester hasn’t been very good, especially against righties. Be sure you’re attacking him here.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
The Braves and Marlins are up next, and this is one of those games that I think we’ll see the under. We know the Braves can go off at any time, but Rogers has managed his games really well, and the carnage is definitely on his side today. Fried can be a little more hit-or-miss, but against this offense, he’ll have a good chance for another ‘hit.’ I think both pitchers would be worth having exposure to here, even if only in GPP.
Brave 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
GPP note – They can always score to the moon, but this would be a tough spot to do it in. Acuna has some BvP.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Marte, Cooper, Rojas
GPP note – Fried’s weakness has actually been to lefties, so slipping in one or two of them could be a good way to be different, if they have any to roll out against him.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
The Phillies take on the Red Sox in our next game, with Moore and Perez squaring off at Fenway Park. I think this one has a pretty good shot at going the over, as both of these pitchers have areas to attack. Perez has had some struggles against lefties, so be sure to have some LvL bats going in. Moore has been getting hit around by both sides, has been trending downward as of late, and we know how many runs these Boston bats can rack up in short order.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, McCutchen, Gregorious
GPP note – More reverse splits here; Perez is doing quite a bit worse against lefties than he is righties. Be sure to attack this exploit.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Verdugo, Dalbec
GPP note – Great spot for these guys to go bonkers. Be sure to grab exposure at the bottom of the lineup to try and be different
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
WARNING: This game is part of a double-header and will only see 7 innings. There also seems to be some weather concerns, so be careful here and watch the skies! This game has GPP written all over it; I’d probably avoid cash game exposure if it can be helped.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Reynolds
GPP note – Not only has Stroman’s strikeout stuff taken a nose dive since mid-June, but he only has 1 strikeout in 21 at-bats against this projected lineup. Don’t be afraid to attack him here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo
GPP note – Not much BvP here and Anderson has been pretty hit-or-miss. It’s a good place to hedge, should you decide to get exposure to this game.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Our last early game features the Royals and Indians, for another divisional matchup. Both teams will start pitchers who have had some recent struggles, against some fairly quiet bats, so it’s tough to pin this one down. Be sure to dig into this game and try to find some good parts to attack, as there’s sure to be some gems tucked away.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Perez, Benintendi, O’Hearn
GPP note – Lefties are in the better spot here, though there may only be a few of them deployed against Quantrill. Be sure to have exposure to them if you’re playing the Showdown slate.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Rosario, Bradley, Ramirez
GPP note – Minor has had some rough starts as of late, and if that continues, it would be a good wake-up spot for these bats. Rosario and Bradley are swinging the best bats against lefties right now.
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Main slate
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
We’ll kick off the main slate with the Yankees and Astros, with Cole facing his old team, who is about as hot now as they were then, and will have Greinke to oppose them. Like the previous game, I could see this one going in several different ways, as we have quality pitching and quality batting on both sides. Be sure to check out the coach’s sheet to see where they think the best places to attack would be.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, LeMahieu/Stanton/Torres (BvP), Voit
GPP note – Greinke is the softer option to attack here, and there’s a fair amount of BvP to fall back on as well
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez (BvP, hot), Altuve
GPP note – It’s not exactly fun to attack Cole, but he’s shown lately that he is human. If there was a time to do it, it might be now.
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
The Cardinals and Cubs rivalry game is up next, with two hit-or-miss pitchers against two hit-or-miss offenses. These two have the worst SIERAs of the entire day, so we could see some scoring here. It might be a good place to mix some chalk with some sneakier options.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Arenado, Bader/Molina (BvP)
GPP note – I don’t LOVE the matchup here, as Davies has been fairly strict to righties, but do at least get some exposure here because they’re very familiar with him.
Cubs 5 star plays – Baez
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant/Rizzo, Contreras, Marisnick
GPP note – Baez is heating up, so if nothing else, get your exposure to him. If Heyward plays, play him too. Either way, get some stacks, as these guys are starting to heat up as a team, and they’ll get some soft pitching to keep that momentum going.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We continue the slate with the Reds and Brewers, another game with varying pitching/offensive matchups. The Reds have the better bats going in, but have a much tougher pitching matchup against Peralta. The Brewers get a softer matchup against Gutierrez, but haven’t been producing quite like the Reds have. In other words, you’ll want to do some deep digging for this one to find those in the best spots, as I think we’ll have a handful of high-scoring players here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Winker, Castellanos, India
GPP note – Tough matchup against Peralta, so it’s probably best to limit stacks and go with one-offs or mini-stacks. However, there is a good amount of BvP here, so if you rely more on that, go nuts.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames, Garcia, Peterson
GPP note – Both sides of the plate are in about equal spots here, so don’t let that get in the way. Look for guys running hot, like Peterson, to get good cheap exposure to
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
We head out west for our next game – the Rockies and Padres. Both pitchers have respectable upside here, though one of them has looked a lot better as of late (Marquez) than the other has (Musgrove). I do think it would be a good idea to have exposure to both of them though, as both have had flashes of elite upside this season.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Rodgers
GPP note – Musgrove has struggled lately, but so have these bats. If you go here, be sure to hedge some.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Pham, Grisham
GPP note – Marquez has looked pretty good coming in, but so have some of these bats. Like above, consider hedging if you go here or with Marquez.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
We head a little north for the Angels & Mariners game, with two pitchers who have looked fairly solid as of late, so I think we may see another ‘under’ performance here. Both look pretty good on the carnage report, though Sandoval certainly has the better matchup, as well as floor/ceiling. He probably outscores Flexen, though I think he might be able to keep this offense somewhat in check for at least a few innings.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh
GPP note – Flexen has a good chance to keep this offense from going nuts (and lower their ceiling), but Ohtani might not be included. You can play him against just about anybody right now
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Moore/Fraley/Torrens (hitting lefties well recently)
GPP note – Not much to love here, maybe some one-offs or random mini-stacks? Some of the cheap bats are interesting, though.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Our final game of the day will feature the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, in what looks to be another win for the Dodgers. Buehler has been solid and is striking out his opponents at a healthy 28.2% rate, and I think he’ll have a chance to grab another 8k+ performance here. Smith, well, he’s got his work cut out for him.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Walker
GPP note – Tough matchup here. A one-off, mini-stack, or contrarian stack only.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner, Muncy, Bellinger
GPP note – Smith is allowing power to both sides, but is actually showing some reverse splits with his xwOBA numbers. Be sure to grab some power lefties here, as they could hit some lower-owned homers.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Nothing surprising here, they have a lot of good options in a pretty decent matchup. Like I mentioned though, be sure to grab some lefties here as they’re in a slightly better spot on paper, which could lead to some lower-owned homers.
- Chicago Cubs – Good matchup here against Kwang, who has the second-worst SIERA on the entire day. They’ve started to score some runs again, and this game is a good spot to keep that going.
- St Louis Cardinals – Like above, a good matchup against a rival team. Davies has the worst SIERA on the day, and a not-so-great carnage score to go with it. There’s a good chunk of BvP here to fall back on as well.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me today, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page today to see who they are most interested in today. Best of luck!
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