Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/5:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Trevor Rogers
- Jacob deGrom vs Joe Musgrove
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Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Means hasn’t been super sharp since his no-hitter as he has allowed 2 HRs in each of his 3 starts. The nice thing is that he takes on a team that has been no-hit twice already this season. Civale is certainly in play because the BAL lineup isn’t all that dangerous themselves.
CLE 5-star plays: Amed Rosario
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets (-121) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of just 5.5. WOW, what a total in this game. I can’t say that I have EVER seen a total under 6 for a 9 inning MLB game. That really takes the offenses out of play for me unless you think there’s a one-off double-dong game. deGrom is just absolutely ridiculous at this point. Musgrove has been really good at home this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
GPP Note: I don’t play on picking on deGrom but Machado has solid BvP and Tatis is extremely dangerous.
Minnesota Twins (-121) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Royals absolutely put it on Shoemaker on Friday night. Berrios is going to need to step up for the Twins bullpen. As much as I love Berrios, I just feel like he’s not fully into this season by the looks of him on the field. I love taking the Twins against LHPs and while it seems to backfire a decent amount, I always want to take their upside.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Kyle Garlick, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Seeing an 11.5 total here makes me really intrigued. Both of these teams have been pretty solid against LHPs this season so we could see some runs. Freeland has had some control issues since he made his season debut and he hasn’t picked up many Ks at all. Allowing that much contact in Coors is a recipe for disaster.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Hampson, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-121)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Rodriguez has not been very good for the Red Sox this season so something has to give. The Yankees bats have really struggled to put up runs consistently despite all the power they can throw out there. Taillon flashes excellent stuff and then he has lapses and allows multiple runs. It’s not a great match-up for him thanks to how well Boston hits RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Rougned Odor, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-216)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Giolito gets a great match-up and is a massive favorite. Skubal looked strong recently but this is NOT the match-up for him as the White Sox have smashed LHPs this season. As soon as Anderson gets super hot, this White Sox team is going to start putting up 6+ runs on a nightly basis.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Nick Madrigal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against LHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (-216)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Woodruff is in a great spot as the D’Backs lineup is extremely soft. Marte is the only guy that would worry me. While I don’t think the MIL lineup is very good either, they are in a plus spot. I just wish they had Kolten Wong yet at the top of the order. I think I am just going to target Woodruff from this game as one of my top SP options.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-145) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Pirates – Chase de Jong
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Rogers is always on my list and he definitely will find himself near the top against this PIT squad. I realize that PIT is best against LHPs but that doesn’t mean they are very good. The Marlins are an offense that I rarely want to use and I will be avoiding them in this park.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw the Dodgers get to Ian Anderson on Friday and while the total on this game is lower, I still think they could get to Morton a bit. Kershaw is an arm that could either shut down this dangerous ATL lineup or he could give up 5 runs in 5 innings and get yanked.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-145) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Rays – Rich Hill
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hill was awarded the AL pitcher of the month for May as he was unbelievable. He gets a plus match-up here after they took it easy on him in his last start. Allard is a kid with a nice arm but he’s never been able to put it together. He gets a decent match-up as I prefer TB against RHPs at this point.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
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Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Cardinals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-172)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kohl Stewart
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gausman is an interesting option but I want to know that he’s fully healthy as he dealt with a little issue in his last start. The Cubs have a ton of power but he’s been so good with the Giants. Stewart made a start last weekend and looked solid. The Giants have been really tough on RHPs but I think he’s an interesting GPP dart play.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Duggar, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Seeing this game with a total of 9 makes me think that it’s expected to be warm in Philly on Saturday. We could see the ball fly as there are a number of guys in this game with strong BvPs. I have no desire, at first look, to use either of the SPs in this game. I did see a potential rumor that Spencer Howard actually starts for the Phillies so we will have to monitor that.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Stripling taking on the Astros sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Astros bats just went off on Friday against Ryu and I would look for them to continue that against Stripling and his reverse splits. Urquidy dominated Boston in his last start so he’s certainly capable of putting up a gem. I prefer the Toronto bats against him slightly but it’s a spot where you can play both sides.
HOU 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I actually think that this game could play to the under as there aren’t really any bats that stand out to me. Haniger is a solid play and has had success against Cobb but that’s really about it for me. Upton offers power against LHPs while Seager is always an HR threat.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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