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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 6/3:
Feb 29, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) fist pumps with catcher Gary Sanchez (24) during the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Yu Darvish – Darvish comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on both sites today, but for good reason. He leads the slate in strikeout rate at 30.7% going back to the start of last season. Not only that but he comes in as a -176 favorite over the Mets here. The Mets have an implied run total of 2.8 runs and has been a disappointing offense all season that hasn’t been helped by injury. I like Darvish a good amount, even with the Mets lineup showing signs of life lately.
- Lance Lynn – The price differential on Lynn between the two sites is pretty large, he’s $11k on FanDuel while he’s just $9.7k on DraftKings. He does give you some large quality start equity which helps his case on FanDuel, but I think I’ll have most of my exposure on DraftKings. He gets a great matchup with the Tigers who are a well below-average offense. Coming in as a -203 favorite, I like Lynn a good deal here.
- Zach Davies – The first two guys here were at the top end, so let’s go dumpster diving and take a look at Zach Davies. I don’t think the Giants get as much credit as they probably deserve, they’ve been really pretty good on all accounts this season. That being said, their offense still doesn’t scare me especially in a large pitcher’s park in San Francisco. Davies has not been all that great this season but he has at least 12 DraftKings points in four of his last five games while going at least 5 innings in five straight, I don’t think he kills you here.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Washington Nationals (+132) @ Atlanta Braves (-142)
Implied Run Totals:
Nationals – 4.1 IRT
Braves – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
Both of these pitchers are probably guys I’ll just go ahead and fade here. Patrick Corbin is a guy I could have some interest in, but I would want a different matchup, this Braves lineup is scary especially for a guy like Corbin who isn’t dodging hard contact all that well. Tucker Davidson gets the start for the Braves in this one, he has one start this season and went 6 innings of three-run ball against the Mets. If you need a punt option to stack up one of these more expensive teams, I suppose you can make a case for him here.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Yan Gomes, Victor Robles
GPP Note: I do think you can make a case for Tucker Davidson, the more I look into it, but I like this Nats stack more than I like Davidson.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: The Braves offense is loaded and Corbin has been pretty volatile this season, I like taking a shot on them here if you can afford them.
Tampa Bay Rays (+176) @ New York Yankees (-200)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – 3.1 IRT
Yankees – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
Gerrit Cole is the creme of the crop on the early slate against his Rays team. He comes in as a -200 favorite and carries a 34.7% strikeout rate going all the way back to the start of last season. If you can find the salary to make him work, do it. Ryan Yarbrough gets the start for the Rays in this one and the Yankees offense doesn’t scare me as much as it might other people this season. They’ve been pretty disappointing but they do have some pop pretty much up and down this order. Yarbrough is pretty good at limiting hard contact at just 25.9% going back to the start of last season, but I think I’ll I would still prefer that Yankees offense here in a hitter’s park.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Just Gerrit Cole for me on the other side of this one.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: I think the Yankees are a solid stack in this one, Yarbrough isn’t my favorite guy to stack against, but things stack up well for them here.
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Boston Red Sox (+121) @ Houston Astros (-131)
Implied Run Totals:
Red Sox – 4.3 IRT
Astros – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
Martin Perez will get the ball for the Red Sox in this one, and he’s not a guy that I’m going to look to get here from a pitching perspective. The Astros have one of the better lineups in the majors and Perez hasn’t shown the capability to shut teams down like you would want, I like Houston a good amount here. Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for Houston, and has just about as bad of a matchup as Perez, I think it’s pretty safe to just fade both of these pitchers in this one.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack on the slate, but I do like a mini-stack if you can afford these big bats.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: The Astros are a top offense on this early slate and a team I like quite a bit here.
Houston Astros (-195) @ Texas Rangers (+177)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 5.3 IRT
Rangers – 3.8 IRT
Rundown:
Lance McCullers will take the mound for the Astros in this one and gets a really nice matchup against a bad and strikeout heavy Rangers offense. McCullers has been really good to start the season with a sub-three ERA and at least 17 DraftKings points in four straight games. Jordan Lyles will be his mound opponent and a guy I’ll stack against with this loaded Astros offense. Lyles hasn’t put up terrible fantasy numbers but he’s still given up at least 6 hits in four of his last five games and has some walk issues as well. The Astros should work him pretty good in this one.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I like the Astros a lot here, but they’re REALLY expensive unless you can do a 7-8-9-1-2/3 stack.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs for me from the Rangers.
Texas Rangers (+104) @ Colorado Rockies (-112)
Implied Run Totals:
Rangers – 5.2 IRT
Rockies – 5.4 IRT
Rundown:
To Coors we go where we have an implied run total of over 10.5, as we get two below-average pitchers in the best hitter’s ballpark there is. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for the Rangers and is giving up a 37.5% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season, you can stack against him pretty comfortably. I think we can say the same thing about Austin Gomber… and as I type this it looks like Jon Gray is going to be the guy, so scratch that! gray is giving up a 34.5% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season and this Rangers lineup has some strikeouts in it, but they also have a lot of home runs. I think you can make a small case for Gray in deep GPP, but I’ll have more interest in this Rangers offense more than anything.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Khris Davis
GPP Note: I do like the Rockies side of this one slightly better, but tough not to like the Rangers in this one.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Without Story in there this lineup doesn’t look all that great, but in this matchup, I like them slightly more than the Rangers.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Miami Marlins (-118) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+104)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – 4.2 IRT
Pirates – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
Elieser Hernandez will get the start for the Marlins in this one, this will be just his second appearance this year. He’s returning from the 60-day IL, so I would expect he’s on a pretty tight pitch count tonight, so we can look elsewhere. The Pirates will start Tyler Anderson who has been fairly solid this season, but I just don’t love the price tag. The matchup is nice and he sees a nice park boost, but I don’t know how much I’ll fall on him. One more thing to note here is there are some weather possibilities, keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: You might be able to get away with a little mini-stack or secondary stack here, I do like the top of this order, but may not be the spot where you want to get too crazy.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Hernandez is good enough to limit this offense in the short time he’ll be in there, but his lineup just is not good.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+157) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-171)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – 4.1 IRT
Brewers – 5.5 IRT
Rundown:
Jon Duplantier will get the start for the Dbacks, but this is a pretty big implied run total for the Brewers. Considering how much this offense has underachieved this year, I think it’s a safe sign to take Vegas’ word for it and steer clear of Duplantier in this one. The Brewers will send Brett Anderson to the mound who is a guy that I don’t really ever roster, but I rarely stack against him either. He’s good at limiting the big inning and is a big ground ball guy. The Dbacks offense isn’t good enough for me to want to stack against him in this one.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs from the Dbacks for me, not a lineup I love today.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: I will have some interest in the Brewers stack for GPPs, they’ve been hitting the ball better as of late and are pretty cheap all around in a great matchup with Duplantier.
Detroit Tigers (+179) @ Chicago White Sox (-197)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 3.3 IRT
White Sox – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Lance Lynn at the top of this article, he’s one of my favorite pitching options on the slate. We know he’s going to push deep into the game and gets a great matchup with a poor-hitting Tigers team. Looking at our Starting Lineups page, the Tigers have a 28+% strikeout rate as a whole this season which matches up nicely with Lynn’s 26.3% k rate. The Tigers will send Casey Mize to the mound, he’s a guy that I do like overall, but I don’t think this is the right spot to attack him here against a good White Sox lineup.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m pretty high on Lance Lynn here, so no real interest from the Tigers bats for me.
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: I like the White Sox here, I don’t know that I’ll go too crazy with them but a full stack in GPPs and a mini-stack in cash is certainly in play.
Minnesota Twins (+103) @ Kansas City Royals (-111)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 4.7 IRT
Royals – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
J.A. Happ will get the ball for the Twins in this one, he hasn’t been great this season but is coming off back-to-back nice starts including his last start against this Royals team. I can’t say he’s someone I want to go super heavy on but I think you can make an argument for him in GPPs. Kris Bubic is interesting as he gets the start for the Royals, he has a sub-two ERA on the season and the Twins have underachieved all year. At his price tag, he carries a 21% strikeout rate, if you’re looking for a cheap arm to help jam some bats in, I think you can make a case for Bubic here.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Alex Kiriloff
GPP Note: More of a mini-stack team with the big power in the middle of this order, but I do think I’ll land on at least a sprinkle of Bubic.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: I touched on Happ being an alright GPP option if you really want to go there but I would side with the Royals bats over him due to the power and speed upside they have.
Cincinnati Reds (+137) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-149)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 3.9 IRT
Cardinals – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
Vladimir Gutierrez gets the start for the Reds in this one, it will be his second start of the season after he went five innings of one-run ball against the Cubs last time out. He’s one of the cheaper SP options on both sites, but I just don’t know that I see a reason to go here. Adam Wainwright will take the mound for the Cardinals here, he’s been really good this season but had his worst start against the Reds in his first outing. This Reds lineup gets really weak after the first 3 or 4 hitters, however, so I have no issue going with Waino here.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I’d be more inclined to play Wainwright than this Reds offense tonight.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: You can certainly make a case for the Cardinals stack tonight against an inexperienced pitcher in Gutierrez.
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Seattle Mariners (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-152)
Implied Run Totals:
Mariners – 4.1 IRT
Angels – 5.0 IRT
Rundown:
Justus Sheffield will get the start for the Mariners here, I think we can safely remove him from our player pool, he hasn’t been all that great this season. I do like some Griffin Canning, however. He’s shown a really nice ceiling so far this season and has around a 25% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. The matchup is nice as well against a below-average Mariners offense.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Canning more than anything here.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: I like the Angels stack more than I thought I would here, they’re a sneaky stack on this main slate.
Chicago Cubs (+118) @ San Francisco Giants (-127)
Implied Run Totals:
Cubs – 4.0 IRT
Giants – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
The Carnage Report disagrees with me here, but I’ll have some Zach Davies interest in this one. He’s incredibly cheap and moves to a pitcher’s park here. He’s a contact type guy so these pitcher’s parks are going to be extremely beneficial to him as we saw last year when he was with San Diego… I’m taking a shot in the dark on him here. Anthony DeSclafani will lead the Giants here and he’s been pretty boom or bust this season, I would stick with him in GPPs.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: More of a mini-stack team due to the volatility on DeSclafani.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey
GPP Note: I’ll zig if other people are zagging, but I love me some Davies here.
New York Mets (+154) @ San Diego Padres (-168)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – 2.9 IRT
Padres – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
Yu Darvish comes in as the top pitcher on the Carnage Report tonight, and for good reason. He’s coming off a rough start last time out but has over a 30% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and gets a watered-down Mets lineup here. Taijuan Walker is a solid pitcher, but I don’t think this is the spot to attack him against a really good Padres lineup, I’ll have more interest in those bats than Walker.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Just one-off options for me.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Walker has been solid this season, but I think this implied run total looks low for the Padres.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Milwaukee Brewers: This may be the first time this season that I’ve written up the Brewers as a top stack, but here we are. I have no trust that Duplantier is going to be able to get it done today. Vegas seems to know something as well with projecting the Brewers for a 5.5 implied run total which is high compared to their season average. Their price tags are cheap as well to help jam in some additional bats.
- Los Angeles Angels: I like the Angels more than I thought I would coming into the slate, but Justus Sheffield hasn’t shown me anything impressive this season. Even without Trout, this Angels lineup has some sting to it especially up top, there isn’t much help behind Sheffield either.
- St. Louis Cardinals: The Reds are going to throw Vladimir Gutierrez at the Cardinals here, he looked pretty good in his first start this season but I have no confidence in him carrying that over. This Cardinals team can be pesky as well. They have a nice combination of expensive high upside bats with cheaper upside bats as well with guys like Carlson. Oh… and the Reds bullpen is atrocious so if they can get to Gutierrez early and often, the Cardinals will be sitting pretty.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Christian Yelich (DK – $5.3k; FD – $3.9k)
I mentioned above that the Brewers are my top stack on the slate, surprisingly enough. Yelich is a big reason for that, he’s off to a slow start this season, mostly due to injury, partially due to the rest of this lineup not doing so great either. I think it’s a big day for this lineup as a whole, Yelich has been a bit “reverse splitsy” on the season but that should regress to more success against righties. It feels like more of a guy call than anything, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. Not to mention Duplantier has given up nearly 2 HR/9 in his brief career. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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