Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Robbie Ray
- Jose Urquidy
- James Kaprielian
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (-121)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chase de Jong
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. The Coors field game after yesterday’s finished 2-0, feels like a game where it should be lower scoring because of Marquez. He has thrown the ball better at home than on the road this season. The Rockies aren’t great against RHPs but I do like their chances of scoring 6+ runs against de Jong.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yonathan Daza, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rays – Rich Hill
Nationals – Joe Ross
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-177)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Yet another double-digit total at Fenway this season. Pivetta is a guy that I used a lot early in the season but has started to fade as he’s never been consistently strong. Keller has had his struggles away from home in his career so the Red Sox should be a strong stacking candidate.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Twins have been playing strong baseball of late while the White Sox have been so-so. Giolito has major upside but he can have HR issues as well. Maeda hasn’t been his 2020 version yet but I think he slowly rounds into form. This game could be a pitcher’s duel or we could see 4-5 HRs hit. Nelson Cruz has an ISO of .565 against Giolito in his career.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees (-153)
Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Monday’s game kind of let me down from a dynamic standpoint so maybe tonight is the night to go back to it. Ohtani stayed hot at the plate while the Yankees bats basically did nothing last night. Both of these SPs are talented but they tend to have innings where they get knocked around.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-157) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Reds – Tony Santillan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Snell could be a sneaky option, despite it being a smaller park. The Reds are MUCH more dangerous against RHPs than LHPs at this point. Santillan has been decent but I think the Padres lineup gets to him here as the game is approaching a 10 total. Fernando Tatis Jr should be one of the highest-owned bats on the slate.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St Louis Cardinals (-153)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Caleb Smith
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Carlos Martinez is a guy that I expect to give up 4-5 runs every time he takes the mound. The issue is that the D’Backs are terrible against RHPs and they are absolutely atrocious on the road. Smith has some ability but he’s never put it all together. The Cardinals have a few guys that have hit LHPs pretty well so I am going to stack them up in a couple of places.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-115) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see the Marlins favored on the road. Rogers is a legit arm with a very bright future at the MLB level. The Marlins have a few guys who have had success against Velasquez while the Phillies have two guys who have multiple HRs against Rogers in their careers.
MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I am really pumped to see this pitching match-up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total move to 6.5 by the time the games start tonight. Buehler is tough to figure out as he has the stuff to rack up Ks but then he kind of pitches to contact at times and can finish with just a few Ks. Gausman has been an absolute stud with the Giants and while it is a tough match-up, we saw the Dodgers bats go pretty cold last night after the back-to-back HRs to start the game by Betts and Muncy.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Duggar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-172)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Indians – JC Mejia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Mejia worked out for me the last time he took the mound so I might have to go back to him against the weak Tigers. Cleveland busted out Monday night so I think that propels their ownership a bit here. I want to be on them as they do get a great spot but I might have to scale back for GPP purposes as leverage.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-157)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Megill looked decent in his debut but this is a tough match-up on the road. The Braves have been FAR better at home than on the road this season. Morton has been up and down but I really like his chances against this Mets squad, despite their return to health. He has 19 Ks in 13 innings against them this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Monday night’s game turned into a high-scoring game despite a solid SP match-up. Both teams put up multiple runs in the first inning and kind of ruined the stat lines of Peralta-Hendricks. Davies is coming off of his best MLB performance, beginning the combined no-hitter of the Dodgers. I don’t expect him to flash no-hit stuff here but he is going to need to be strong to match Woodruff.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-177)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We could see a solid pitcher’s duel or we could see about 6 HRs hit in this game. I am a fan of Kaprielian and love seeing his success. He gets a plus match-up but a couple of the TEX bats are swinging the power stick of late. The A’s are capable of putting up big-time performances in any game but they haven’t had a ton of success against Folty.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (-195)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Blue Jays will, again, be very popular. Their offense is just ridiculously dangerous and HRs can come from just about anywhere. Ray has been really good for TOR and he gets a plus match-up against SEA. Seattle does have a couple of guys who flash some strong power against LHPs but overall, it’s a pretty weak lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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