Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Trevor Bauer
- Zack Greinke
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (-121)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. We get a Coors field game with a Coors type total and yet we have offenses that are very weak overall. There will be runs scored but it’s so tough to pinpoint how they end up scoring. I prefer the COL side of thing for stacking purposes as they do have guys who have hit LHPs decently well this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Jerad Eickhoff
Nationals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Nationals SP decision.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-153)
Pitchers:
Royals -Danny Duffy
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Fenway has had some massive totals this season, which has blown my mind. I love picking on Richards and the Red Sox are always a team I look to stack so I understand the double-digit total today. Duffy is capable of putting up respectable numbers but I don’t believe we have to look his way today.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Twins have been playing strong baseball of late while the White Sox have been so-so. Giolito has major upside but he can have HR issues as well. Maeda hasn’t been his 2020 version yet but I think he slowly rounds into form. This game could be a pitcher’s duel or we could see 4-5 HRs hit. Nelson Cruz has an ISO of .565 against Giolito in his career.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees (-160)
Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Yankees – Michael King
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We should see plenty of offense in NY today. Both of these SPs can get smacked around and the Angels bullpen isn’t one that worries me. Ohtani just keeps doing amazing things while the Yankees have a bunch of guys who have had some success against Bundy in their careers.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds (-153)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This game is a make-up game so it might not be on any slates. We should see some offense in Cincinnati but there are question marks. Harper is dealing with an injury while the Reds bats have gone a bit cold, especially Jesse Winker. Still a game that I would prefer to stack the bats from than using the SPs at this point.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St Louis Cardinals (-160)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Jake Faria
Cardinals – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Seeing the total sit at 9 makes me wonder about this game. The offenses aren’t great and while STL is definitely the better team, they are struggling a bit at the plate overall. Neither SP should be in our player pools at this point. I think we just look at one-off bats in this game and move on.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-177)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. We saw the Dodgers get no-hit so that should remind us that a guy like DeSclafani is certainly in play for GPPs. Bauer has been very good but still has been somewhat disappointing this season. He has the K ability but he tends to give up a couple of runs. Overall the Giants haven’t been super hot at the plate recently but a few bats have helped them out.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros (-300)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Thomas Eshelman
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Astros are the largest favorite that I have seen in quite some time. They have an impressive implied team total so they should fall in the top 1 or 2 stacks tonight. Greinke just keeps going along and while I expect some rough stretches, he just does enough to shut down the opposing offense.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-153)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Indians – Eli Morgan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really don’t know how to attack this game as I don’t love either offense but the pitchers can give up some runs. Manning is a prized arm in the DET system but I just don’t think he’s ready for the majors this season as he had been struggling a lot at AAA before his promotion. Both teams have been pretty cold at the plate.
DET 5-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-140)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We should see plenty of Ks and easy outs from the pitchers in this game. Peralta has been spectacular this season while Hendricks has been very hit or miss. Neither team has had much success against the opposing SP so I am going to feel pretty confident in using both.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Washington Nationals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Shohei Ohtani, LAA
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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