Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Adam Wainwright
- Dinelson Lamet
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Houston Astros (-195) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Astros –
Tigers –
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that these games are 7 innings.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that these games are 7 innings.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-153)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am always about Wainwright when he pitches at home. I know the top of the PIT order can be sneaky but I just love how he pitches in St Louis. The Cardinals bats have hit Brubaker really well so I would much prefer them in this match-up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total stay at 8.5 but the Cardinals grow as a larger favorite.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals (-121) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Is there anybody out there hotter than Kyle Schwarber? The answer is just one person and that person is Kaley Cuoco. It’s just facts at this point. Schwarber is just hitting bomb after bomb right now. Corbin is a guy that I can’t figure out this season as he’s been a stud traditionally but he’s been so mediocre overall. There’s a couple of solid BvP spots on Miami against him.
WSH 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Royals – Undecided
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. A little surprised to see a total of just 8 in this game but that might just help me stay away from the White Sox. They have been pretty cold recently but I always worry about them busting out in a big way. Lynn is always going to make my list of pitchers as he is steady and never really a pitch count concern.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
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New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Vegas expects this to be one of the higher scoring games on the say and by the looks of BvP histories, I would have to agree. Neither of the SPs intrigues me at all so it’s about nailing the stacks or mini-stacks from this game. Eovaldi has done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard so far this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-260)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am going to go out on a limb and say that deGrom allows a run in this game. That’s probably a bold call at this point, with how dominant he has been. I do like the idea of stacking the Mets against Eflin as a few of them have had some nice success against him.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays (-157)
Pitchers:
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t love much from this game as it feels like just a blah match-up. With that said, I definitely think mini-stacks are GPP viable on both sides. I could see Rendon and Meadows ending up as two of my favorite GPP one-off plays as well in this game.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-260)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Lamet has upside but the D’Backs just put up some runs on Paddack last night. Tatis Jr is heating up and coming off of a 3 HR game. That’s going to drive up his ownership again (like he needed it). I can definitely get behind a full SD Padres stack for GPPs. Nobody stands out for me from the ARI side.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. I am a bit shocked to see a total of 9 with how the Dodgers have swung it plus Urias on the mound. The more that I think about it, the more I am interested in these offenses. I am more interested in the Dodgers as a full-stack with the Cubs being mini-stacks or one-offs at first glance.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 at home this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-280)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Blue Jays should be the chalk of the slate and I can’t blame you for wanting to go all in. I think we just lock in the main Blue Jays and sprinkle around to get the right 4 and 5 man stacks. Ryu hasn’t been super sharp but he’s always capable of putting up a dominant performance.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-153)
Pitchers:
Indians – Sam Hentges
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Maeda should be throwing better than he has this season but the Indians lineup is pesky and annoying for pitchers. The Twins have hit LHPs really well but they are missing Buxton and Garver from their potent lineup. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go under the total.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants (-121)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I could see this game being a pitcher’s duel or being a battle of long-relievers with some HRs to be had. I know it’s in SF but there is some upside for power. If I am going to use one of the SPs, it’s probably Wood but I don’t feel great about it. I won’t be fully stacking either side but I will be using mini-stacks.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Oson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-203)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Friday’s game went into extra innings and I tend to lean towards the pitchers after those kinds of games. I can’t get behind using Senzatela but I definitely like Houser with how big of a favorite he is. Hiura HR’d on Friday and while he also struck out a couple of times, I am hoping he starts to hit as he looked like a future hitting star.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Xander Bogaerts, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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