Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/23:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- German Marquez
- James Kaprielian
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Houston Astros (-195) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Orioles – Thomas Eshelman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We should see the Astros be super popular yet again, even though they let everybody down on Tuesday night. Jose Urquidy is an interesting GPP option against an Orioles offense that lacks depth. Despite the game having such a high total, I just lack a lot of interest in the Orioles side of things.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-160) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Pirates – Chase de Jong
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Cease has really struggled on the road this season so that makes me think about using a Pirates mini-stack at the top. I was a bit shocked to see the White Sox updated numbers against RHPs on the season. I would have thought they’d be hitting for more power.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Undecided
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees (-166)
Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Yankees – Michael King
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Duffy is making his return from the IL so we have to monitor what his pitch count might be. The Yankees have bats that can make this a tough spot for him. King has ability but he’s never shown it consistently. I think the Royals are an interesting stack, especially at the top of the lineup.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-172) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Diamondbacks – Caleb Smith
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Peralta just dominated ARI and it’s a short turnaround for them to be facing Woodruff. That’s a very tall task to ask of an offense that has struggled so much over the last month. I do like the Brewers for the early slate as Smith can walk some guys and walks lead to big innings.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gausman has been spectacular all season and he’s been absolutely elite when he’s on the road. Ohtani is the wild card on the slate as he could show some dominant stuff or he could lose some control. Our problem is that we can’t use him as a hitter. Rendon has impressive numbers in his career against Gausman.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fedde has looked great in his return from the IL while Velasquez has struggled a bit in terms of run prevention of late. I think that the Nationals are in a slightly better spot but I wouldn’t fault you for stacking the top half of either lineup in your GPPs. Zimmerman has strong numbers against Velasquez but he also may not be in the lineup.
WSH 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rays – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. There are a couple of guys with strong BvP numbers in this game and then there are guys like Bogaerts, Martinez, and Meadows who line up strongly from a power standpoint against the opposing SP. The Rays have done a good job of limiting Rich Hill’s pitch counts this month after he threw a ton of pitches in May.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Mike Zunino
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. We get the best SP match-up of the day, late at night. Musgrove has been strong for the Padres while Bauer has been good but not elite for the Dodgers. I say that because he’s allowing a few more runs this season. We know that he’s going to throw 100-ish pitches. I like the SD side more from an offensive standpoint as Tatis and Machado have had success against Bauer and Cronenworth looks to be heating back up.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Mets – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-115) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I hate to admit my love of the Rockies for today but here we are. I just don’t think highly of Sheffield overall, especially when the COL offense has hit LHPs really well this season. When I looked into Marquez’s numbers this season, I was shocked. He’s been FAR better at home in Coors than he has been on the road. I am hoping that changes today.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-121) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Cardinals – John Gant
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I have no interest in either pitcher here but I think the offenses could be sneaky. The Cardinals have struggled a bit and the Tigers aren’t a very deep offense. Schoop has been hot for what feels like 2 months now. We know a guy like Tyler O’Neill can get hot at any point and rack up HRs in bunches.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-153) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kaprielian is always on my radar as I love his ability to get outs. Folty is somebody that I used to believe in but he is just a guy at this point. The A’s offense should be near the top of the stacks as I think they can pick up a couple of HRs, especially with how hot the top of the lineup has been.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics
MLB Dinger of the Day – Gleyber Torres, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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