Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Zack Wheeler
- Lucas Giolito
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Houston Astros (-190) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The Astros should be the most popular stack on the slate. Love the way they are swinging it, even without Bregman. Greinke is capable of being solid but his ceiling is capped due to his lack of Ks at this point in his career. I don’t mind looking at a one-off from BAL but this game is all about Houston for me.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-172) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The White Sox can hit LHPs pretty well so Anderson could be in a tough spot. Giolito should be in a plus spot against a pretty bad PIT squad. Much like the game above in this write-up, this one is very one-sided for me. I will be stacking the White Sox a few ways in hopes of getting their 6+ runs.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-111) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. A couple of the Blue Jays bats have had success against Alcantara. Stripling is an arm that can surprise or he could give up 5 runs over 4 innings. Toronto always carries ownership but this game should be pretty low-scoring. I think I would go with one-offs and mini-stacks for GPP purposes.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees (-280)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cole and the Yankees are massive favorites against Singer. The Yankees MLB DFS bats should be pretty popular thanks to their implied run total. Sanchez has been the hottest Yankee bat and makes a great one-off at a position of weakness. It’s tough to pick on Cole but guys like Mondesi, Merrifield, and Perez are swinging a strong bat.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Clint Frazier, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Tuesday night’s game should be more of a pitcher’s duel than Monday night’s game was. Gallen hasn’t looked great but he’s capable of being extremely strong. Peralta has been elite all season long and deserves to be very popular on this slate. I was shocked to see the total at 8.5, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it made its way down to 8.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ohtani has been doing insane work of late so he makes a ton of sense in all of your contests. Heaney is capable of racking up Ks but he’s also capable of allowing a couple of HRs. DeSclafani has been strong for SF but I think he struggles with the top half of the Angels lineup tonight.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Nationals – Undecided
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
WSH 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-111)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rays – Andrew Kittredge (opener), Ryan Yarbrough (long reliever)
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We know that TB strikes out a ton against LHPs but they do have some power and Rodriguez has been giving up plenty of runs this season. The guys below, for the Red Sox, have really strong numbers against Yarbrough in their careers and they make a very strong GPP stack.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs (Yarbrough) this season.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
Waiting on the MLB DFS Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-111)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We could definitely see a pitcher’s duel here as the game has the lowest total on the slate. The reason I say could is that Morton has struggled some this season while the Braves offense is dangerous enough to give Stroman some fits. I would rather use one-offs in this game than actually stack it up.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Billy McKinney, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-157)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Rockies are actually swinging it pretty well but this is the first game out of a series at Coors. Flexen isn’t somebody that I would look to use so maybe we should be using COL one-offs and mini-stacks. Seattle has some pop against LHPs and I love using Ty France.
COL 5-star plays: Raimel Tapia
4-star plays: Trevor Story, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-115) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cardinals can hit LHPs well but they haven’t been very strong of late. Skubal has a big upside in his arm but a young guy like him can struggle. Oviedo flashes ability and has the match-up we would normally like but the Tigers have a few guys swinging it well. Schoop has been on like a month-long hot streak at this point.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Daz Cameron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Indians – Eli Morgan
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the MLB DFS Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-145) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I love the way that Olson is swinging the bat and he should stay pretty hot in this game. Murphy HR’d recently and has an HR against Lyles while the return of Laureano strengthens this A’s lineup. Irvin started the season strong but has come back to earth since then. He does get a plus match-up but I don’t think we need to actually use him.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (EVEN) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This MLB DFS game has opened with a total of 9.5 in Vegas. The Twins lost Buxton yet again last night. He was lost to a broken hand and that’s just frustrating to see with the season he’s been having. We definitely could see plenty of offense in this game and I would NOT be shocked to see this game get to a 10 total.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Chicago Cubs
MLB Dinger of the Day – JD Martinez, Boston Red Sox
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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