Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/18:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Trevor Bauer
- Jose Berrios
- Chris Paddack
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Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez or Zach Thompson
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The wind at Wrigley is an important factor that we need to monitor. Davies has pitched well enough to contain some offenses of late so if the wind is neutral or blowing in, he should be considered. I have seen Lopez listed in some places and I have seen Thompson in others. I would prefer it be Thompson for Cubs stack purposes.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPS this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (EVEN)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Rodon has been spectacular and the Astros just lost Bregman to the IL. That leaves a pretty big hole in their lineup, especially against LHPs. Garcia has been impressive so far this season and while the White Sox can be dangerous, they have dealt with some major injuries to their lineup. This is one of those games that both SPs could be strong plays but both offenses could put up 6+ and it wouldn’t surprise me.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-157) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The main Baltimore bats are a bit cold right now so that props Ray up a bit for me. I know the total is higher but I think he’s capable of a strong performance. Zimmermann draws an elite offense but one that might not have Hernandez tonight. Toronto will be in my top stacks because they are just so dangerous.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Royals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I believe KC is waiting to make an SP decision based on how they feel about Kowar. He’s struggled mightily at the MLB level. If Kowar does start for Boston, we should be extremely high on them. Boston has been hitting the ball well over the last week. Kansas City has been struggling and the lineup looks much worse without Benintendi. The return of Mondesi helps them a bit.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 days.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-216) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Diamondbacks – Caleb Smith
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Dodgers are a tough offense to peg in terms of stacking. They tend to get contributions from lesser-known players on a nightly basis. Bauer hasn’t been Cy-Bauer of 2020 but he’s been pretty strong and should be again in this start. Arizona doesn’t destroy RHPs and they are just one of the worst teams in baseball.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
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Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Angels bats woke up a bit Thursday night so they probably end up a little higher owned tonight. Urena has thrown decently at times this season and we know the Angels lineup isn’t loaded with names. I would think that Ohtani is out of the lineup tonight but that’s one thing we have to make sure of.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres (-180)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tony Santillan
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Paddack has thrown the ball decently well and I think that the Reds struggle enough on the road to make him a strong play tonight. Santillan struggled with control and allowed a ton of baserunners in his first start. That’s a recipe for disaster against the SD offense, especially the top half of the lineup.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves (-177)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Braves are going to line up as the top stack for me on the night. I continually pick on Carlos Martinez and a guy like Freddie Freeman should be able to take advantage of him. Fried has the stuff to be strong tonight but the Cardinals have hit LHPs really well overall. I certainly can get behind stacking them in a game with a 9.5 total.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants (-121)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am more intrigued by the pitching in this game than the bats and that’s really saying something. Cueto isn’t great at anything at this point but the Phillies aren’t the super dangerous offense we thought they would be. The Giants are playing strong baseball but they don’t have any bat that’s scorching hot right now.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians (-145) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Indians – JC Mejia
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Mejia would be pitching on 3-days rest of he does make this “start”. I would assume that puts him at a 3-inning cap so that would remove him from my player pool. Kuhl is a guy with a nice arm but he just tends to get hit. I think the Cleveland bats are worth the play for GPPs as one-offs, mini-stacks, and full stacks.
CLE 5-star plays: Bobby Bradley
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (EVEN) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wacha isn’t stretched out at all but he’s expected to take on a full rotation role with the loss of Glasnow. My guess is he is looking at around 4 innings tonight. He’s been a reverse splits guy for much of his career. Kikuchi is a tough one to figure out as he looks strong at times and then he looks like he’s serving up BP at other times. We know that TB can strike out nearly 30% of the time against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-180) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rockies – Anthony Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Woodruff struggled in Coors for MIL so that has me a bit worried about Burnes. I think that Burnes, overall, is a better pitcher than Woodruff at this point but that’s really just being picky. I am very much on the MIL side in this game, despite their offense being a tough one to rely on.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Nationals – Joe Ross or Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Nationals are the side that I want to be on in this game from a bats perspective. I have seen Ross and I have seen Fedde listed as the probable in places. I believe it’s going to be Fedde at this point in the morning. The Mets have bats that can do damage but they are FAR from consistent right now.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Yan Gomes, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees (-130)
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kapriellian
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kaprellian has been impressive this season for Oakland and while this match-up is difficult and he’s the underdog, I think he could surprise in this game. That’s more of a gut feeling than anything that can be proven with numbers at this point in the morning. Taillon has the arm talent but he just makes mistakes. He could strike out 8 in 3 innings and then suddenly in the 4th give up 5 runs on 2 HRs.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-157) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Berrios lines up to be in a great spot for me as this TEX squad is NOT swinging it well at all. Folty is a guy with a solid arm and his metrics say that he should have success but he just gives up HRs in bad spots. The Twins offer plenty of power but they do also offer some strikeouts.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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