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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 6/14:
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sean Manaea – The top end of pitching today isn’t as strong as usual, but you can make a case for a lot of the guys up there, they just all have flaws. I do like Sean Manaea a good deal in a nice matchup with the Angels. Manaea has matched up with the Angels twice already this season and has at least 17 DraftKings points in each game. Manaea has a 22.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, but I do think he’s volatile which is a flaw that I mentioned a lot of these guys on the high-end having.
- Adam Wainwright – Waino has been cooking as of late, he has at least 7 innings pitched in three of his last four games and gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have a 26.3% strikeout rate on the season as a whole to go along with the 21.3% strikeout rate that Wainwright carries going back to the start of last season. Considering the form he’s been in this season, he’s a great option here.
- Marco Gonzales – Gonzales is making his third start since returning from the injured list and is my dumpster diver SP of the day. We get a really nice price on both sites for him, so if you’re spending up on bats I think he’s quite useable, especially with Coors on this slate. The Twins offense isn’t an offense that scares me with the way they’ve performed this season, they’re striking out at a 23.2% rate on the season. Gonzales can be volatile, but that’s normally what you get in this price range.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+102) @ Washington Nationals (-110)
Implied Run Totals:
Pirates – 4.5 IRT
Nationals – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
I will say… I do have a little interest in Jon Lester at this price tag. I’m one of the bigger “stack against Lester” people out there, but a matchup against the Pirates can normally cure that. He comes in as a favorite and this Pirates lineup is not good, I think you can get to him as a cheap pitching option if you’re stacking up big bats. JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates and has been pretty decent this season. Brubake has near a 24% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. If he can avoid the big bats in Turner and Soto, he’s got a good chance here.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: I don’t hate a mini-stack or one-offs here simply because I don’t think Lester is very good, but I won’t full-stack here.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber, Victor Robles
GPP Note: The Nationals are my favored offense in this game and a stack I don’t mind going with as a GPP option.
Baltimore Orioles (-) @ Cleveland Indians (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Orioles – N/A IRT
Indians – N/A IRT
Rundown:
Dean Kremer sounds like he’ll be getting the start for the Indians, and a guy I think we can ignore pretty easily here. He has an ERA over 6.80 and a WHIP near 2 on the season, I don’t know that I want to stack up the Indians because of how weak this lineup gets after the top four, but Kremer is definitely a fade for me. Jean Carlos Mejia will get the nod for the Indians, and honestly probably another guy I’ll be fading, he hasn’t thrown over 50 pitches in five straight outings.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: I don’t like Mejia as a pitcher, but I also don’t like this Orioles offense.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: I do like a mini-stack for the top of this lineup, but that’s about it for me here.
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Toronto Blue Jays (+116) @ Boston Red Sox (-126)
Implied Run Totals:
Blue Jays – 4.5 IRT
Red Sox – 5.1 IRT
Rundown:
Alex Manoah will get the ball for the Jays in this one and would be a guy I have a ton of interest in, but then I saw the matchup. He’s pitched well in his brief MLB career, but I’ll wait for a better matchup, the Red Sox have one of the better lineups in the league. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Sox here and has been pretty good as of late if we overlook his last outing against the Astros. The Jays are a good offense however, I think both of these pitchers are more of “stay away” guys than anything for me here due to the offensive matchups.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: I like the Jays as an offense as a whole because of how deep they can go, you can stack this team six ways to Sunday.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Manoah looks like the real deal, so I won’t be too crazy on the Red Sox stack, but they’re definitely an option here.
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ New York Mets (-110)
Implied Run Totals:
Cubs – 4.6 IRT
Mets – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
I thought about writing Jake Arrieta up instead of Marco Gonzales at the top of this article, so I think you can get to him here as a cheap option. This Mets offense is starting to get a bit healthier, but they’ve underperformed all season long. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets here and probably a guy that I’ll fade. He has at least three earned runs in four straight games and under five innings pitched in three of those four. The Cubs are playing good baseball right now, so no issues getting some of their bats here.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I don’t think the Cubs will make my top-stacks, but they’re definitely in consideration.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Peter Alonso, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: I think I’ll have more interest in Arrieta here than a full Mets stack, but I think a mini-stack is viable.
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Detroit Tigers (+122) @ Kansas City Royals (-132)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 4.2 IRT
Royals – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
Matt Boyd will get the start for the Tigers here but has been pretty bad as of late. He looked decent last time out against Seattle, but before that start, he had given up at least four earned runs in four straight games. He’s had a nice hard contact rate at 29.6% since the start of last season, but I think I’m going to have some Royals stack interest. Brad Keller will start for the Royals here and a guy that I think you can get to as a cheap option here. Keller hasn’t been great this season but gets a great matchup against a Tiger team that has a cumulative 28% strikeout rate on the season.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Schoop, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Keller than this Tigers squad.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: I like the Royals a good amount here and is in contention as a top stack for me here.
Cincinnati Reds (+140) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-152)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 4.1 IRT
Brewers – 5.0 IRT
Rundown:
Vladimir Gutierrez will get the ball for the Reds here in a “tough” matchup against the Brewers. I say “tough”, because this Brewers lineup hasn’t been anything special all season, but they’re stringing together hits and making things hurt when they’re supposed to… that said, no interest in Gutierrez for me. Eric Lauer will get the start for the Brewers and a guy that I can’t seem to figure out. He has games where he looks great but then he’ll give up seven earned runs to the Tigers. The Reds lineup is good enough for me to want to fade him in this spot, I’ll go with the bats on both sides of this one.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Jonathan India
GPP Note: I like some of these Reds bats quite a bit but not enough to stack, I’ll go with a mini-stack on them.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Willy Adames, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: The Brewers are my preferred side of this one, not just because of Gutierrez starting, but that Reds bullpen is atrocious.
Tampa Bay Rays (-109) @ Chicago White Sox (+101)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – 3.6 IRT
White Sox – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
This is a fun pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Lance Lynn in this one. Glasnow has a quality start in four of his last five games and at least 7 innings pitched in each of those games, it’s hard to argue with production like that. He also has a 37% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, it’s a tough matchup with the White Sox, but man he’s got a lot going for him here as a GPP option at the very least. He’s probably a solid cash option the more I talk myself into him. Lynn has been incredible this season and this Rays offense isn’t one that scares me, he’s a solid option in this one as well.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Lynn than this Rays offense.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Similar to my take above, I’ll take the pitchers over the bats in this one.
Miami Marlins (+144) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-154)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – 3.8 IRT
Cardinals – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
Adam Wainwright made my pitcher’s section at the top of this article and a nice pitching option tonight against a weak Marlins offense. The price tag is nice for him on both sites and makes a lot of sense as a cash option tonight. Braxton Garrett will get the start for the Marlins in this one. Garrett has seven innings pitched this season and six earned runs, safe to say he’s not a guy that I’ll be looking at getting to here. I will have some interest in these Cardinals bats however, this lineup is sneaky deep and I think we can take advantage of the youngster here.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Starling Marte
GPP Note: I love me some Wainwright, so just one-offs here for me.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neil, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: The Cardinals will be in contention as a top stack for me on this slate.
San Diego Padres (-161) @ Colorado Rockies (+147)
Implied Run Totals:
Padres – 6.2 IRT
Rockies – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
To Coors we go! I think we can pretty safely avoid both of these pitchers here although we have some interesting names. Dinelson Lamet gets the start for the Padres and is generally pretty good when he’s healthy, but hasn’t thrown over 80 pitches in any game this season, so I wouldn’t expect that to change here. Austin Gomber is interesting however, he has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The thing with most of those games is they were on the road, but he hasn’t had huge home/road splits this season. If the matchup weren’t against the Padres I may try and make a case for him, but this Padres lineup is legit.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Yeah… the Padres are an awesome stack here.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: I prefer the Padres here, but have no issue with a Rockies stack here.
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Los Angeles Angels (+148) @ Oakland Athletics (-161)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 3.8 IRT
Athletics – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
Dylan Bundy will get the start for the Angels here in a tough matchup against a pretty solid Athletics lineup that has started to hit the ball well over their last few games. Bundy hasn’t been so great this season either with an ERA over six, I’ll definitely have some A’s interest in this one. Sean Manaea is a guy I wrote up as a top pitching option on the slate. The Angels offense doesn’t worry me as much with Trout out of the lineup and Manaea has been pretty good as of late. He’s a big favorite here and a guy I’ll get a good chunk of here.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Manaea than this Angels lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: I like the A’s as a GPP stack quite a bit in this one against Bundy.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+169) @ San Francisco Giants (-200)
Implied Run Totals:
Dbacks – 3.4 IRT
Giants – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
Matt Peacock will get the start for Arizona here against a pesky Giants offense. Peacock has been bad enough for me to avoid him even in a pitcher’s park heading to San Fran. Alex Wood is a different story however, he’s been bad over his last two games but he gets a great bounceback matchup here against Arizona. He’s been much better at home this season as well while carrying a 23.4% strikeout going back to the start of last season. I love me some Alex Wood here and a guy that I think you can make a case for as a cash game guy in your lineups.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I like Wood a lot here, just one-offs for me.
SFG 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: I like the Giants a good deal as a mini-stack or a GPP stack against Peacock here.
Philadelphia Phillies (+147) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-161)
Implied Run Totals:
Phillies – 4.2 IRT
Dodgers – 5.4 IRT
Rundown:
Spencer Howard will get the ball for the Phillies here, and not really a guy I’m going to look to get to. He hasn’t been all that great and gets an incredibly difficult matchup against the Dodgers in this one… a strong fade for me. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin who is an interesting case study here but think I’m going to need to see it from him before I fire him up as an SP option. That said, he’s much more in play on FanDuel where he’s sub-$7k and not sandwiched between Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Gonsolin was a bit rusty in his first outing, so if you think that continues here I have no issue with a mini-stack.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Will Smith, Justin Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: It’s tough not to like the Dodgers in this spot, they’re a strong stack in all formats.
Minnesota Twins (-135) @ Seattle Mariners (+124)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 4.3 IRT
Mariners – 3.8 IRT
Rundown:
I want to have some interest in Kenta Maeda here but I’m not quite sure if he’ll be on any sort of hard pitch count here as he returns from the IL. He only threw 54 pitches in his latest rehab start which makes me think he’ll have some sort of limitation, so I’ll likely go elsewhere, that said if they come out and say he’s a full-go, I’ll have a lot of interest. I did write up Marco Gonzales as my dumpster dive SP option of the day, I think he can get us there in this matchup. The Twins haven’t exactly been world-beaters this season and the price tag on Gonzales helps roster construction quite a bit.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: I’ll have some interest in Gonzales here, but there are some lefty-mashers in this lineup that can make him pay if he makes a few mistakes.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: No real interest in the Mariners here, Maeda is good enough to keep them down even if limited.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- San Diego Padres: They’ll be popular, but it’s hard not to like them here going into Coors. Austin Gomber has been good as of late but this Padres lineup has some serious firepower in it and pretty easily the highest implied run total on the slate, if you have the salary, fire ’em up.
- Kansas City Royals: I mentioned this in the game breakdown, but Matt Boyd hasn’t been so great lately, so I like targeting him and this Tigers bullpen. I always love stacking the Royals as well due to how much they run along with their home run upside. Love this spot for them and they should be fairly low-owned.
- St. Louis Cardinals: The pricing on these Cardinals guys always feels a bit too low and today they good a really solid matchup against Braxton Garrett who doesn’t have a whole lot of major league experience. The Marlins bullpen isn’t so hot either, the stack is cheap enough to get the pitchers you like as well.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Nick Castellanos (DK – $4.8k; FD – $4.2k)
Love me some Castellanos here against lefty Eric Lauer who has been a bit volatile this season. Castellanos has a 0.579 SLG and a 0.303 ISO against lefties this season. Going back to the start of last season Lauer has a 40.7% hard contact rate which would be a slate high, love me some Castellanos here. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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