Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 6/10:
Apr 27, 2021; Dunedin, Florida, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a grand slam home run during the third inning against the Washington Nationals at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer – It’s really tough not to like mad Max in this one. He comes in as a -160 favorite against a below-average Giants offense implied for just 3.1 runs in this one. As is normally the case, I want to chase strikeouts here, and who better to do it with? He brings a 33.6% strikeout rate into this one going all the way back to the start of last season. At that rate, even if he gives up a run or two, his day is nowhere near ruined due to the strikeout upside he has. If you’re paying this far up, I think he’s a solid option.
- Trevor Rogers – Anytime I can catch the Rockies away from Coors is a plus, not to mention we get them in a full-blown pitcher’s park in Miami. Trevor Richards has been awesome this season and has four quality starts in his last six outings. He has a 29.8% strikeout going back to the start of last season and this Rockies lineup is nowhere near as dangerous outside of Coors. There’s a slight chance they get Trevor Story back in the lineup, but I’ll still have no issue getting to him here especially at the discount you get him at on DraftKings compared to FanDuel.
- Anthony DeSclafani – I talked up two expensive pitchers already, so let’s go dumpster diving with DeSclafani here and save a little cash. He’s the mound opponent of Max Scherzer which isn’t exactly ideal since it’ll limit his win upside but I do think he’s got some potential in this matchup. The Nationals offense hasn’t been all that great this season and with an implied run total of 4 today, makes me feel pretty good about DeSclafani as a cheap pitching option. He started the year off really well and has since seen that production come down a bit, but had a nice bounce-back performance against the Cubs last time out.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-212) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+192)
Implied Run Totals:
Dodgers – 5.1 IRT
Pirates – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
Julio Urias will get the ball for the Dodgers in this one and is a really nice pitching option on the early slate. I really like the price tag you get him at on DraftKings as well under $9k. He has a win in four of his last five games with at least 19 DraftKings points in all of them. The big thing with him is the Dodgers are finally letting him pitch deeper into games this year which we haven’t seen in the past. As a big favorite against a bad Pirates offense, I like him quite a bit in this one. Generally, I would have some interest in Mitch Keller who will get the start for the Pirates, but I don’t really see the need to go with him against a good Dodgers offense.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: They have the highest implied run total on the early slate, tough not to like them in this one.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I’ll have a lot of interest in Urias here.
Milwaukee Brewers (-117) @ Cincinnati Reds (+108)
Implied Run Totals:
Brewers – 4.4 IRT
Reds – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
We get a fun pitching matchup here with Freddy Peralta against Luis Castillo, who have had completely opposite seasons up to this point. It’s really hard not to like Freddy Peralta here, he has a quality start in four of his last five starts and has at least 49 FanDuel points in three of his last four. Not only that, but he’s carrying an insane 36.9% strikeout rate on the season, and as we know, strikeouts are king in DFS. Luis Castillo hasn’t been quite as good as he carries an ERA over six but is coming off one of his better starts of the season against the Cardinals. If you think he can carry some momentum into this one, the price is nice on him here and gives you some quality upside.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: I have no issue with a Brewers stack in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a pitcher that has struggled for most of the season.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: More of a GPP stack but they do have some big upside guys in this lineup.
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Atlanta Braves (+123) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-134)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 3.5 IRT
Phillies – 4.1 IRT
Rundown:
Ian Anderson will take the mound for the Braves in this one, and has been fairly good this season. He has a quality start in three of his last five games, but I just don’t love the matchup with the Phillies here who have a fairly deep lineup. The thing I love with Anderson is the hard-contact rate hovering around the 27% mark over the last season and a half, the strikeout rate isn’t too shabby here either at 27.4%… I’m somewhat talking myself into him as an SP2 option on this early slate. Zach Wheeler comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, but for good reason, he is on a bit of a heater right now. He’s gone at least 7 innings in four straight starts and has at least 24 DraftKings points in each of those starts. The fact that he has just one win in those games makes me think he has even more upside as well. The only thing I hate here is the matchup with a really hard-hitting Braves lineup. If you can make Wheeler work here, I would do it, but I’m not forcing him in by any means.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: It’s tough to make a case to stack against Wheeler right now with the way he’s pitching.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Odobel Herrera, Jean Segura
GPP Note: I hate stacking against pitchers with a low hard contact rate, but I think the Phillies make sense as a GPP stack.
Seattle Mariners (-105) @ Detroit Tigers (-115)
Implied Run Totals:
Mariners – 4.6 IRT
Tigers – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
It seems like the Tigers are going to go with an opener here followed by Rony Garcia, but I think we can just exclude them from our player pool here, neither of them is stretched out enough for me to love. Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners who is never a guy I love either, but I think you can make a case for him as an SP2 on the early slate due to the matchup with the Tigers, but would still be just a GPP guy for me due to his volatility. I really want to stack both of these teams, but man these lineups are ugly.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Ty France, Taylor Trammell
GPP Note: I really want to start one of these teams, but I think I’m going to side with the Tigers. No issue with a mini-stack here, however.
DET 5-star plays: Eric Haase
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Schoop, Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Implied run total of near 5 here in a great matchup, I like the Tigers quite a bit here.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
San Francisco Giants (+136) @ Washington Nationals (-161)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 3.2 IRT
Nationals – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on both of these pitchers at the top of this article and think they’re both playable in their own right on this slate. I obviously prefer Max Scherzer but I have no issue with DeSclafani here either. All in all, I think it’s just these guys here for me, both have been good enough to a point where I won’t have much interest in stacking either of these offenses. If you want to make a case for the Nationals in GPPs I think you can, but nothing I’m going too crazy on.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey
GPP Note: Scherzer is the top pitcher on the main slate, I won’t have many Giants bats here.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell
GPP Note: No issue with stacking up the Nats here, but the main pieces I want are extremely expensive at the top of this lineup.
Houston Astros (-109) @ Boston Red Sox (+101)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 4.6 IRT
Red Sox – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
Zack Greinke will get the start here for the Astros in a tough matchup with a pretty loaded Red Sox lineup. Greinke hasn’t been all that great this season but that’s baked into the price tag, he’s still allowing just a 28.3% hard contact rate since the start of last season… I think you can make a case for him in GPPs on a shorter slate. I think you can say the same thing about Eduardo Rodriguez here who also gets a tough matchup but has been serviceable enough for GPPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: I’ll have a sprinkle of Eduardo Rodriguez here, but my main interest would fall with the Astros lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Very similar to the Astros, I’ll have a sprinkle of Greinke, but most of my interest falls with the Red Sox stack.
Colorado Rockies (+192) @ Miami Marlins (-211)
Implied Run Totals:
Rockies – 2.9 IRT
Marlins – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Trevor Rogers at the start of this article and is a guy I absolutely love in this matchup. The implied total is incredibly low for the Rockies who struggle big time away from Coors field and now go into a pitcher’s park in Miami. Rogers has been great all season, and a guy I’ll get a good amount of here. Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Rockies here but just isn’t a guy I want to get to, he has a sub-15% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and has the highest hard contact rate on the day at 37.2%, you can make a case for some Marlins stacks here as crazy as it sounds.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Love me some Trevor Rogers here.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: There’s a small chance the Marlins make my top stack list on the main slate, but if not, they’re a strong GPP stack or a very solid mini-stack.
New York Yankees (-148) @ Minnesota Twins (+125)
Implied Run Totals:
Yankees – 5.8 IRT
Twins – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
Michael King will get the ball for the Yanks here, his pitch counts are trending in the right direction as he’s gone deeper into each game he’s started and went 5.1 last time out. You can make a case for him in deeper GPPs. J.A. Happ gets the start for the Twins and is coming off a bad start last time out, he’s given up at least 4 earned runs in four of his last five games which means… FIRE UP THE YANKEES. They’ll be a popular stack here, but for good reason, as that implied run total creeps up toward six.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: The Yankees are the top stack on the main slate, and it’s not all that close on paper.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Alex Kiriloff
GPP Note: I don’t have an issue with a Twins stack here, but probably more of a mini-stack for me.
Toronto Blue Jays (-113) @ Chicago White Sox (+105)
Implied Run Totals:
Jays – 4.7 IRT
White Sox – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
Hyun-jin Ryu will get the start for the Jays here and is never a guy I love to stack against and probably not a guy I want to use as a pitching option against a good White Sox offense, so probably more of a stay away spot for me. Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the Sox in this one, that Jays lineup gets pretty weak toward the bottom of that order, but Keuchel doesn’t put up enough strikeouts for me to want to risk it against the top of this order.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: I like the Jays stack a good deal here.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking against Ryu, so just one-offs for me here.
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Kansas City Royals (+138) @ Oakland Athletics (-150)
Implied Run Totals:
Royals – 3.6 IRT
Athletics – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
Mike Minor will get the start for the Royals here, he’s been pretty solid as of late as well. He has at least 23 DraftKings points in three of his last five but I just don’t love the matchup here. The Athletics have a sneaky good offense particularly against left-handed pitching, I’ll have more interest in an A’s stack in this one. Frankie Montas is interesting here, I don’t love the Royals offense but Montas has been a bit volatile this season. I think you can make a solid case for him as a more expensive SP2, but understand the risk on him here.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Yeah… I don’t love the Royals here but due to the volatility of Montas, you can make a case for a mini-stack.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: I like the A’s as a GPP stack quite a bit in this one against a lefty.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- New York Yankees: I touched on this in the breakdown, but the Yankees are pretty easily my top stack on the main slate, but they will be popular so maybe not the stack you should go with in those large-field tournaments. J.A. Happ has negative fantasy points on DraftKings in three of his last five starts and we know what this Yankees lineup is capable of. You can some nice value in this lineup as well with guys like Andujar, Frazier, and even LeMahieu hitting leadoff… it’s a very affordable stack.
- Toronto Blue Jays: I mentioned that I don’t like the bottom of this lineup, particularly 7-9, but the rest of this lineup is rock solid. The hard contact rate on Keuchel isn’t anything crazy and is actually pretty good, but I love this Jays lineup with all the talent they have. They can bust any game open with the upside they have. On a short slate, I have no issue stacking up this Jays team heading to Chicago.
- Miami Marlins: Now, before you run at me with pitchforks for recommending the Marlins, here me out. Chi Chi Gonzalez has the highest hard contact rate on the slate and as I mentioned earlier has a sub-15% strikeout rate over the last two seasons which will help this young Marlins team. They bring some speed and power upside as well which gives you multiple ways of getting you there. The price tags on these guys are nice as well which will allow you to do pretty much anything you want at pitcher, I like the Marlins a good deal on this main slate.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Miguel Andujar (DK – $2.6k; FD – $2.7k)
I’m going to chase the hot streak with Andujar in this one, he has a home run in three of his last five games and gets a great matchup with J.A. Happ in this one. His numbers against lefties aren’t all that groundbreaking this season, but he hasn’t turned up the heat until the past couple of weeks… he’s coming around and provides some nice value on this slate, love me some Andujar in this one. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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