Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/25:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Kevin Gausman
- Jose Berrios
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Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (-195)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Monday night’s game is currently in a rain delay but the game has seen just 3 runs scored into the 8th. Berrios is a guy that is capable of being the highest-scoring SP on the slate but he can give up a couple of HRs as well. I like the Twins quite a bit against Kremer but we have to learn who is healthy and who isn’t at this point for their lineup.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Snell looked strong at one point Monday against this weak MIL lineup but then he looked terrible in other innings because he just had zero commands. Musgrove is very capable but he also hasn’t been sharp since his no-hitter. Burnes has been absolutely electric and Woodruff just shut down this SD lineup. Always a worry with Tatis in the middle of the lineup but I think Burnes is a very strong GPP option.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs (-145) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Pirates – Cody Ponce
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I feel pretty confident in the Cubs as their team total should be pretty decent, despite having to hit at PNC. Arrieta is somebody that doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he might be serviceable enough for our builds, depending on his price points around the industry.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-153)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Hyeon-Jong Yang
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Seeing both teams throw LHPs makes me less interested in the offenses. Ohtani is just always in play at this point and I can get behind a GPP stack of the Angels. Heaney is an arm that I always have an interest in but he just seems to underwhelm in spots that he should go 6-7 innings with 8+ Ks.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Phil Gosselin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (-125)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We see a very low total here but we also see there are some plus BvP histories for the offenses. I lean towards the pitchers at first glance as this park is a very nice one of these guys to throw in while both offenses have had their troubles putting up runs. At some point the Phillies are going to wake up, could it be here, when they are expected to continue to struggle?
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: Miguel Rojas
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves (-121) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Even before seeing the Vegas total, I wanted to be all about the Braves. I wish I knew what to say about Morton as I expect him to figure things out a bit at some point but this may not be the match-up for that. I think that a game stack or two is certainly viable in GPPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPS this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-157)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I was so pumped to see Kluber get his no-hitter in his last start. Pitchers haven’t been particularly sharp after their no-hitters this season and this game is going to see some runs scored. I always get myself some TOR stacks and the Yankees seem like they are on the cusp of exploding.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals (-160)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. No desire to pick on Scherzer even though he’s capable of giving up some HRs. I know the total is pretty low but I think that the Nationals bats could be very sneaky, especially if Soto is heating up. Mahle is a guy that I like to use but the Nats have some dangerous LHBs to go with a tough out in Turner.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think this is a great match-up of pitchers but both guys are capable of struggling when they try to pitch up in the zone. We have seen Giolito have some really rough performances at times and this STL team is capable of hurting him if he’s struggling. Flaherty probably gets the better match-up of the two, despite being on the road, as the White Sox haven’t been as potent against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-250)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I have zero desire to try and pick on deGrom or to try and guess if he might give up a solo-HR in this game, against a very weak COL squad. Freeland went 6 innings during his rehab start and gets a GREAT lineup to make his MLB season debut against. I think both of these guys are strong plays.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I never know what to do with Civale as he gets some solid match-ups but he isn’t some elite K-type SP and the Tigers were pesky yesterday. Skubal is a kid who has a bright future but his present has shown quite a few struggles at the MLB level. Normally I would love to be stacking CLE in this spot but without Franmil Reyes, I feel like their offense is just mediocre in this spot.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Yu Chang
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-172) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
D’Backs – Corbin Martin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gausman has been absolutely spectacular this season and I was shocked when I saw his DK price tag. I am a little shocked to see a 9 total with him on the mound but he is a pretty sizeable road favorite. Martin has some upside and has been considered one of ARI’s top SP prospects (he came over in the Greinke deal from HOU).
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Steven Duggar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-160)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Irvin is going to stand out to me as a possible value option against this Mariners squad. I know they put some runs on Montas early Monday night but the overall lineup isn’t as dangerous as the ISO says below. He has really surprised me this season and he’s worth relying on in weak match-ups.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love this SP match-up, even if they are getting up there in age. I was shocked to see the total at just 8 runs as the Dodger bats are picking it up and Greinke isn’t the star that he once was on the mound. Kershaw is capable of shutting down any offense but he’s also capable of giving up a couple of HRs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Austin Barnes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-172)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Rays – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. TB is rolling right now, picking up their 11th straight win on Monday. Hill has really surprised me and he gets a decent match-up against a struggling KC offense. Keller seems like he’s starting to straighten things out but this is NOT the match-up for him.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi (DTD), Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Mookie Betts, LA Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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