Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/21:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Nola
- Ian Anderson
- Chris Paddack
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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Twins – Undecided
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIN 5-star plays: Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-111) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Reds – Jeff Hoffman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think we see some offense here as the ballpark is built for hitting while the pitchers going aren’t known to have big swing and miss stuff. The Reds were just embarrassed on Thursday at home so look for them to bounce back here as I think their offense is stronger than the Brewers but Houser is a strong option than Hoffman is.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 at home this season.
Chicago Cubs (-111) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There are some STRONG BvP numbers in this game for us to consider. Martinez is coming off of the IL to make this start and I could see him struggling a bit as a few of the Cubs bats have turned it on of late. The middle of the STL lineup is swinging it really well and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go over its total.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-121) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Tyler Ivey
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ivey is considered one of the Astros’ top prospects but he has struggled in two appearances at the AAA level so far this season. He gets the right match-up as the Rangers are struggling at the plate right now. Gibson has been really steady for the Rangers and is capable of holding down this HOU squad, despite some strong BvP in the Astros’ favor.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-157)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. When I see Austin Nola pitching at home, he automatically jumps to my top few on the slate. It sucks to see that he’s pitching at home against Boston but remember the Red Sox will lose their DH in this game. The Phillies lineup isn’t exactly rolling right now so Perez might be able to keep up his solid pitching.
BOS 5-star plays: Kike Hernandez
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-180)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The battle of the Anderson’s should be dominated by Ian here. Tyler Anderson could struggle with the Braves despite their high K rate. I was shocked to see the PIT overall team numbers against RHPs so that’s going to make Ian one of my top SP options at first glance.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Striking out at a 28% rate against LHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Blue Jays – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .298 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals (-203)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Nationals – Stephen Strasburg
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Strasburg will be returning from his IL stint so it’s tough to gauge how many pitches/innings he is set to go. We should learn more as the day goes on. I definitely won’t be targeting him with a stack but a couple of bats are one-off options below. Lopez is a guy that can surprise for a few innings before kind of falling apart. I look for the Nationals’ top half to get it going against the Orioles.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (EVEN)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Battle of a couple of very different LHPs here. Rodon is a hard-throwing strikeout guy while Montgomery is more of a finesse guy who is certainly capable of putting together Ks. Both of these offenses line up well against LHPs so we could see some runs but we also could see 16+ Ks from these SPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Yermin Mercedes
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Undecided
Marlins – Jordan Holloway
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-153)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We know that the Tigers are striking out at a ridiculous rate against LHPs this season (about 34%) and if you look below, their ISO is paltry. The Royals bats are going through a bit of a lul here so Urena could surprise as a cheap value option but he is said to be dealing with an injury issue.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .080 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Seth Frankoff
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Fuentes, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-117) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Angels – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kaprielian looked the part in his first MLB start and now he gets to face an Angels squad without Mike Trout. The game lines up very well for Oakland, in my opinion. Quintana, while picking up some Ks, has been knocked around pretty well and OAK has done plenty of damage to LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am pretty excited about this pitching match-up. Bauer is always a beast and has such a high floor thanks to his K ability and he’s such a smart pitcher that I expect him to use this park to his advantage. Wood has been really solid for the Giants and I think he has some motivation against the Dodgers as he was kind of yo-yo’d between the rotation and the bullpen during his time in LA.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-210)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. If there was ever a time to rely on Chris Paddack, could this be it? My initial thought was no, I can’t go there but I think we have to consider it with how bad the Mariners have been swinging it. He’s such a huge favorite and SEA may end up with the lowest team total on the slate.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Randy Arozarena, TB Rays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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