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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/19:
Oct 8, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts (50) celebrates after hitting a double against the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning during game three of the 2020 NLDS at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes – I’m going to continue to go right back to the well on Burnes especially in a good matchup against the Royals. The guy has an unreal 45.3% strikeout rate on the season and comes in as a -163 favorite. He has at least 30 FanDuel points in each game this season and that strikeout rate will put his upside through the roof. He’s likely my top pitcher on the slate although the price differences on guys like Clayton Kershaw and Jack Flaherty are interesting between the two sites.
- Corey Kluber – To the mid-range we go! I love this spot for Kluber and the Yankees, the Rangers haven’t hit the ball all that well this season and Kluber has bounced back a bit from last year. He has a 23% strikeout rate on the season to go along with a 26.3% k rate that the Rangers lineup brings to the table. The price tag is nice on him considering the upside he brings in this one, the quality start and win equity are nice as well.
- Brad Keller/Charlie Morton – My dumpster dive pitcher will differ depending on the site you’re on, I like Keller on DraftKings and Morton on FanDuel due to the price differences. Morton is actually cheaper than Keller on FanDuel. He hasn’t been all that great lately, but he started the season really nice, so hoping for a bit of positive regression here against an underachieving Mets offense. Keller on DraftKings is the way I would go if you’re looking for a cheap SP2, the Brewers offense is struggling big time right now and he’s in good form, I like taking the chance on him.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Chicago White Sox (-144) @ Minnesota Twins (+121)
Implied Run Totals:
White Sox – 4.7 IRT
Twins – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
If you’re playing the after noon slate, you’re probably starting your lineups with Joe Musgrove at pitcher but you can make a case for a GPP pivot to Lucas Giolito here against the Twins. He hasn’t been all that great lately, but we know the upside is there on him especially against a Twins team that has underachieved this season. I don’t think you need to have much interest in Matt Shoemaker here, the White Sox are hitting the snot out of the ball right now.
CHW 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Yermin Mercedes, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: I love the White Sox stack again here, but it won’t be sneaky, they have the highest implied run total on the afternoon slate.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Giolito here than the Twins bats.
Colorado Rockies (+205) @ San Diego Padres (-227)
Implied Run Totals:
Rockies – 3.0 IRT
Padres – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
As I mentioned with the first game, I think Joe Musgrove is pretty easily the top pitcher on the early slate against this light-hitting Rockies offense in a bit pitcher’s park. He comes in as a -227 favorite and has big upside in this one. You don’t need to have much interest in Chi Chi Gonzalez here, the Padres lineup is a bit watered down right now, but not enough for me to have interest in Sir Chi Chi.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: I like Joe Musgrove a lot in this spot.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: The Padres are probably my second favorite stack on the early slate, but that will likely be how everyone else thinks as well.
San Francisco Giants (-124) @ Cincinnati Reds (+115)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 4.5 IRT
Reds – 4.1 IRT
Rundown:
This is actually an interesting pitching matchup between guys that are having really nice seasons. Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Giants, he has at least 43 FanDuel points in five straight games to go along with a quality start in all five games. Wade Miley followed up his no-hitter with a really bad outing against the Rockies last time out, but we’ll give him a pass since it was in Coors. Gausman is my preferred option in this game for obvious reasons but that Reds offense has much more firepower in it than that Giants lineup.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Probably just those power-hitting righties in this one for me.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: I like Gausman the most between these two pitchers, but this Reds offense has some serious boom to it.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays (-) @ Baltimore Orioles (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – N/A IRT
Orioles – N/A IRT
Rundown:
This game has an interesting pitching matchup between Ryan Yarbrough and John Means. Yarbrough isn’t a guy that you’re thrilled to play at SP, but at the price tag, he’s a guy I like getting to in a great matchup against the Orioles. Means has been incredible this season and a guy I think you can go right back to here. The Rays haven’t done much to scare me this season, but they do seem to be coming around from an offensive perspective.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I don’t love any sort of stack here due to how good Means has been, but I think there are some one-offs you can get to in a nice ballpark for batters.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Similar story here, there aren’t many bats that I love from this game.
Miami Marlins (+110) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-119)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – 3.6 IRT
Phillies – 3.9 IRT
Rundown:
Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins in this spot and he has been really impressive this season, going for at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. You can make a case for him as an expensive SP2 option on this slate. Zach Eflin is an interesting option if you want to go even cheaper. I’ll never have any issue streaming pitchers against this Marlins offense and has been in really good form as of late.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Yet again, nothing I love here from the Marlins.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: This would be my preferred side for bats, but even there, it’s slim pickings.
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New York Mets (-) @ Atlanta Braves (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – N/A IRT
Braves – N/A IRT
Rundown:
It sounds like David Peterson will get the start for the Mets here, but we don’t have a confirmation yet, hence the lack of an implied run total here. That being said, this Braves lineup has a ton of firepower in it, so not a guy I’ll get much of here. I touched on Charlie Morton at the beginning of this article and a guy I really like on FanDuel due to the price tag. I do think you can still target some of these Mets bats if you think Morton is going to struggle again, but that price tag on FanDuel is hard to ignore considering the upside we know he has.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Again, not a lineup I love stacking, but I do see a few one-off pieces I like here.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I like the Braves a good deal here in a good matchup with Peterson. Peterson is coming off a really nice outing last time out but has been pretty volatile this season.
Boston Red Sox (+103) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-112)
Implied Run Totals:
Red Sox – 5.2 IRT
Blue Jays – 5.4 IRT
Rundown:
I think we can finally start to look at some bats here as we getting a pitching matchup of Garrett Richards and Ross Stripling here. That being said, Richards has been pretty solid as of late and has at least 16 DraftKings points in four straight games, but I don’t think we need to go here on a big slate. Stripling should struggle here, however, against one of the better offenses in the league. I like both these offenses, but the Red Sox would be my preferred side of this one.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: They’ve got a nice implied total in a pretty solid matchup, they’re a nice stack in this one.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guererro
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: I like the Sox slightly more but that doesn’t mean you can’t have interest in the Blue Jays in this one.
Washington Nationals (-145) @ Chicago Cubs (+134)
Implied Run Totals:
Nationals – N/A IRT
Cubs – N/A IRT
Rundown:
Max Scherzer will get the ball for the Nats here, and a guy that always has a nice strikeout rate and that has continued this season as he comes in with a 35.8% strikeout rate and a guy you can get to here especially in tournaments. That said, I do like him a bit more on DraftKings where you get a slight discount relative to the guys around him. Jake Arrieta will get the start for the Cubs, he feels more like a meh option than anything for me, I think we can do better at this price tag.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: I want to like the Nats here, but the bottom of this lineup is so ugly and Arrieta can do enough to be annoying.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
GPP Note: I likely won’t stack against Scherzer, but he’s prone to the home run ball every now and then if you’re looking for some one-offs.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+187) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-206)
Implied Run Totals:
Pirates – 3.1 IRT
Cardinals – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
Trevor Cahill gets the start for the Pirates and not a guy I’ll get much interest in there, the Cardinals are a nice lineup that can beat him up a good bit. Jack Flaherty will get the ball for the Cardinals and a guy I love here especially on DraftKings. He’s the second highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel but you get a discount on DraftKings where he’s under $10k, I love the spot against a weak-hitting Pirates team.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Love me some Flaherty here, I don’t see the need to get to the Pirates here.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: With an ERA near 6, I have no issue going to the Cardinals stack against Cahill here.
New York Yankees (-) @ Texas Rangers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Yankees – N/A IRT
Rangers – N/A IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Corey Kluber here at the start of this article, but he’s a guy I love in the mid-range here against a weak-hitting Rangers lineup. He has some nice upside relative to his price tag in this one due to the strikeout rate he can present and the Rangers bring to the table as well. It looks like Hyeon-Jong Yang will get the start for the Rangers here and a guy I think we can stack against here. He won’t go too deep into the game and this Rangers bullpen is nothing to be afraid of. That being said, the Yankees lineup took a bit of a hit with Stanton hitting the IL.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Angujar
GPP Note: The nice thing with the Yankees stack is the value you can get on these guys at the bottom of the lineup with guys like Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, and Tyler Wade to provide some relief on the salaries at the top of the order.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: I like Kluber a lot in this spot and a guy I’ll get to a bunch here.
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Cleveland Indians (-) @ Los Angeles Angels (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Indians – N/A IRT
Angels – N/A IRT
Rundown:
Aaron Civale will get the start for the Indians here and gets a bit of a break with Mike Trout hitting the IL, which makes that lineup look much worse. He doesn’t have a massive strikeout rate but 20.7% going back to the start of last season if you’re digging deep for a mid-range option. Shohei Ohtani gets the start at pitcher here for the Angels and a guy I never hate stacking against due to the walk rate he carries, 22.2% going back to the start of last season. More often than not, walks turn into big innings which leads to GPP winning stacks. The Indians lineup isn’t great, but I think they can get it done if you’re looking to get some leverage here.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: I think the Indians will be my GPP special on this slate, I like them a good deal here.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: With Trout out of the lineup, this team is going to be really ugly to stack.
Milwaukee Brewers (-164) @ Kansas City Royals (+150)
Implied Run Totals:
Brewers – 4.3 IRT
Royals – 3.3 IRT
Rundown:
I love me some Corbin Burnes in this spot and is my SP1 on the slate as I mentioned at the start of this article. The strikeout rate is huge and this Royals offense isn’t one that scares me all that much, love Burnes here. I did write-up Brad Keller as well but it’s more of a matchup thing than anything here. The Brewers offense is struggling big time right now. They did get Christian Yelich back last night but we’ll see how he feels and if he makes the lineup here, the last time he returned he went right back to the IL.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: More of a one-off team than anything for me here.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: All the Corbin Burnes here for me.
Houston Astros (-108) @ Oakland Athletics (-100)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 4.3 IRT
Athletics – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
Zack Greinke will get the start for the Astros here and hasn’t been all that impressive this season even after a nice start last time out. I think it’s more of a stay-away spot than anything for me against a pretty solid Athletics offense. The same can be said for the A’s bats, Greinke is good enough for me to just go elsewhere here. Frankie Montas is a guy that I think you can make a tournament case for on DraftKings due to the price tag. He has a 23.4% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, the one thing that stinks is the matchup which makes him more of a GPP option.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: I do like Montas here, but we know the upside this Astros team can bring to the table.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me.
Detroit Tigers (+115) @ Seattle Mariners (-124)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 4.1 IRT
Mariners – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
Battle of the youngsters in this one as Tarik Skubal and Logan Gilbert get the starts for their respective teams here. Skubal has not been all that good, giving up at least four earned runs in two of his last three games. This Mariners team gets a nice boost with Jared Kelenic in there as well, so not a guy I’ll likely get to here. Gilbert is really interesting, particularly on DraftKings. I don’t think he’ll have the greatest shot at a quality start which takes him out of play for me on FanDuel, but a guy I like for upside due to his price tag on DraftKings.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: I’ll probably have more interest in Gilbert than this Tigers offense.
SEA 5-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Seattle just got no-hit last night, but I do like the upside they can bring in a good matchup against a raw southpaw.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – N/A IRT
Dodgers – N/A IRT
Rundown:
Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers and is the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel, but for good reason due to the matchup here. I still prefer Burnes in this price range but it’s tough not to like the spot for Kershaw. Merill Kelly gets the start for the DBacks and a guy I love to stack against here, he has pretty easily the highest hard contact rate going back to the start of 2020 at 40.7%, this Dodgers offense will make him pay for any mistakes he makes.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Tough not to like Kershaw here.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty
GPP Note: The Dodgers lineup isn’t as great on paper due to injuries, but I love stacking against Kelly here and we get some discounted guys in the middle of this lineup with guys like Beaty and Lux.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers: As I just mentioned, I love the Dodgers here against Mr. Merrill Kelly. Kelly has a 40+% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season and this Dodgers stack is really pretty easy to make. They have those three high-priced guys in Betts, Turner, and Muncy but as I mentioned, guys like Lux and Beaty make the stack work pretty nice here. Love the Dodgers in this spot.
- Cleveland Indians: I’m going to go off the board a bit here with Cleveland against Ohtani. I have a feeling people may see the “Ohtani” name and be scared off due to the offensive numbers he’s putting up right now, but he’s a pitcher I think we can stack against due to that walk rate. He has a 22+% walk rate going back to the start of last season and more often than not, walks lead to big runs, I like the Indians a good amount here.
- St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals get a pretty solid matchup against Trevor Cahill as he comes in with an ERA near six on the season and hasn’t been all that great over his last three games. Not only that, but this Pirates bullpen isn’t much better, so there isn’t any relief behind him if the Cards can get to him early and often. There is some nice firepower in this offense as well and a stack I like to round the top-stacks out with!
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Max Muncy (DK – $5.2k; FD – $3.8k)
The Dodgers are my top stack on the board and Muncy is a big reason why. Kelly is giving up big-time hard contact and Muncy is on the right side of splits in this one against a righty. Muncy has underachieved to start the season but against righties on the season he’s hitting a 0.454 SLG, 0.360 wOBA, and a 0.245 ISO. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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