Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/17:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Yu Darvish
- Yusei Kikuchi
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Chicago White Sox (-111) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Twins – J.A. Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really like some of the BvP in this game and I think we could see some runs scored. I know both SPs are capable of doing enough to shut down the opposing offenses but I like to believe we see some HRs in Minnesota. Keuchel just allowed 6 runs to MIN while Happ just allowed 9 runs against CWS in their last starts.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Anderson is 11 for 19 against Happ in his career.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Cruz is 18 for 52 with 6 HRs and 8 walks against Keuchel in his career.
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds (-145)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get an odd start time in Cincinnati (something they will do often) so this game isn’t on the actual main slate. Gray is a guy I always use because I feel strongly about his ability. The Reds are coming out of Coors so I am curious to see if they struggle in the first game or two back home.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 at home this season.
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Nationals – Jon Lester
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Lester makes his return to Wrigley and he’s already made it known how much that means to him. So we can see this play out one of two ways really. He either comes in motivated and has a “dominant” performance or he’s full of emotions and struggles with control. Normally I like to see the wind blowing in at Wrigley but I think I am hoping it’s blowing out on Monday night.
WSH 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Striking out at a 34% rate against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Striking out at nearly a 26% rate against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
COL 5-star plays: Yonathan Daze
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
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New York Yankees (-280) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cole is a massive favorite while the Yankees have a red-hot Aaron Judge waiting to face Lyles. If Stanton returns to the lineup, the top half of the Yankees should be popular. I just hope the roof is open in Texas for this game. Cole should end up the highest-owned SP on the slate, even higher than Darvish.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPS this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Gallo is 5 for 22 with 4 HRs, 2B, and 16 Ks against Cole.
Cleveland Indians @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Indians – Sam Hentges
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am not sure what to do with this game. The opening total is pretty high for a game late on the west coast. Cleveland isn’t exactly a dangerous offense but Sandoval hasn’t been good in his recent appearances. The Angels are always in play for me as the top of their lineup is legit threats to put up a bunch of runs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Peraza, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-191)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really like this SP match-up as Bumgarner is throwing the ball extremely well while the Dodgers are struggling with injuries and inconsistency. Buehler has massive K ability but he’s had some command issues this season, leading to an HR problem. The Ks have helped to off-set the HRs as he allowed 3 of them against SEA in his most recent start.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Minnesota Twins
- Chicago Cubs
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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