Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/6:
Apr 7, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Jake Cave (60) center fielder Byron Buxton (25) and right fielder Max Kepler (26) celebrate after the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole – Cole comes in as pretty easily the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, but it’s pretty tough not to like him here. The Astros lineup has enough name recognition in it that maybe he ends up going under-owned as well. Cole has at least 10 strikeouts in four of his six starts this season and a quality start in his last five starts. Cole carries a bonkers 44.3% strikeout rate on the season, so even if he gives up a solo home run here or there, the strikeouts should more than makeup for it.
- Nathan Eovaldi – I like to do a high-priced option, a mid-range, and then a dumpster diver option, Eovaldi falls in that mid-range here where you can comfortably use him as an SP2 on DraftKings or a cheaper SP guy on FanDuel to get an expensive stack. He gets a matchup with the Detroit Tigers which is pretty hard to top, the Red Sox also come in as -201 favorites, so his win equity is pretty large. He’s been pretty solid all season long and a guy I like in this price range.
- Michael Pineda – Pineda is much cheaper on DraftKings, but I still think you can get to him on FanDuel as well. He has at least 19 DraftKings points in four of his five starts this season and gets a nice matchup with the Rangers. The Rangers come in with an implied run total of 3.3 here and Pineda leads the Twins in as a -198 favorite. For the price tag, I think you could do much worse on both sites.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Milwaukee Brewers (-114) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+105)
Implied Run Totals:
Brewers – 3.6 IRT
Phillies – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
This is a pretty enticing pitching matchup here as we get Brandon Woodruff against Zack Wheeler. Woodruff comes in as the favorite and a guy I think you can get to as a pivot off of the more expensive Gerrit Cole. This Phillies lineup hasn’t been all that great this season and Woodruff has a 30.1% strikeout rate. Wheeler is solid as well with how watered down this Brewers lineup is right now with Yelich and Narvaez out and Hiura sent down. If I’m going with an offense here I do think I would go with the Brewers however simply due to the walk issues Wheeler can have, it’s not guaranteed, but he has at least 3 walks in three of his last five starts.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw, Jackie Bradley
GPP Note: I can’t say I love the stack, but I think you could make a case for a mini-stack in GPPs.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: I like Woodruff quite a bit here and the bottom of this Phillies lineup can get pretty ugly with Bryce Harper not in there.
Houston Astros (+173) @ New York Yankees (-190)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 3.4 IRT
Yankees – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Gerrit Cole at the beginning of this article and it’s hard not to like him here. Cole has an above elite strikeout rate and comes in as a -190 favorite, so the quality starts and win equity is pretty large here. Lance McCullers will get the ball for the Astros in this one, but that implied run total on the Yankees is a bit scary at 4.7. McCullers has given up a hard-contact percentage of 35.5% here. The Yankees have some big bats in their lineup, so I do like them as a sneaky stack in this one.
HOU 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: I love Cole here, but I think you can get a one-off or two here due to the home runs Cole has a tendency to give up.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I like the Yankees a good deal here, the name of McCullers could people away from them here, so there’s a chance they come in under-owned for MLB DFS purposes.
Detroit Tigers (+183) @ Boston Red Sox (-201)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 3.5 IRT
Red Sox – 5.1 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Nathan Eovaldi earlier, but he’s a guy I like a good amount as an SP2 option or a cheaper SP1 on FanDuel. The Tigers just aren’t a good offense, so I’ll take the chance on him as the highest favorite on the slate. Spencer Turnbull gets the ball against this Red Sox team that is hitting the snot off of the ball to start the season. Due to the implied total and the matchup, the Red Sox may come in as the highest owned stack on the slate, but it’s tough not to like him here.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: I like Eovaldi much more than the Tigers bats here, more of a fade for me than anything.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: It’s hard not to like the Red Sox here as a full-stack against Turnbull at home with an implied run total of 5.1.
Texas Rangers (+179) @ Minnesota Twins (-198)
Implied Run Totals:
Rangers – 3.3 IRT
Twins – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
Michael Pineda is another guy I like as a pitcher option on this slate due to the matchup with the Rangers. Texas is striking out a good amount on the season and just isn’t all that great of an offense, it’s tough not to like Pineda in this spot. Jordan Lyles will get the start for the Rangers and boy do I like this Twins stack. Lyles is giving up a 40.6% hard contact rate on the season. It kind of stinks that Kiriloff got hurt, as he provided a nice cheap option to make the stack work. That being said, guys like Sano and Kepler, even Jake Cave, help lessen the blow of eating the salaries on Donaldson, Buxton, and Cruz in the middle of that lineup.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Pineda is my favorite cheap pitcher on this slate.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: I love the Twins stack here, they’ll make my tops stacks section at the end of the article.
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New York Mets (-123) @ St Louis Cardinals (+114)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – 4.2 IRT
Cardinals – 3.9 IRT
Rundown:
Taijuan Walker will get the ball for the Mets in this one and doesn’t look all that bad from a DFS perspective. He had a bit of a rough outing last time out but has at least 20 DraftKings points in two of his four starts with a quality start in both of those games. The Cardinals will send John Gant to the mound and has been pretty pesky this season. He has less than a 2.20 ERA and hasn’t given up more than three runs in any game this season. Not to mention, this Mets lineup is heavily underperforming right now. If you think the Mets breakout at some point, I don’t mind taking the shot on them, but man it’s hard to do.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Peter Alonso, Dom Smith
GPP Note: The more I look at this lineup and the matchup, the more I like this stack, but it’s hard to do with how cold they are right now combined with how pesky Gant has been.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: I think you can make a case for both Walker and a Cardinals stack which is why the Cards won’t make my top stacks list.
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Cleveland Indians (+116) Kansas City Royals (-126)
Implied Run Totals:
Indians – 3.8 IRT
Royals – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
Youngster Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians and is a pretty exciting pitcher. That being said, it’s pretty hard to get to him as a MLB DFS option. He’s maxed out at 87 pitches this season and hasn’t gone over 5 innings at all which really sort of kills his value on FanDuel since he’ll need to be pretty efficient to have a chance at the win and quality start. He’s got a big strikeout rate though, so I think you can make a case for him on DraftKings in MME. Danny Duffy will be his mound opponent and has been incredible this season. His ERA is under 1.0 and has a win or quality start in every start this season.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, generally I like taking a chance against Duffy, but he’s just been too good this season.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: I have no issue with the Royals here, but I just don’t feel a huge urge to stack them up here.
Toronto Blue Jays (-137) @ Oakland Athletics (+127)
Implied Run Totals:
Blue Jays – 4.6 IRT
Athletics – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
Hyun-jin Ryu will take the mound for the Jays, but the A’s always seem sneaky to me. Ryu is generally pretty good at limiting hard contact, however, so I think you can get to him especially on DraftKings where he’s sub $8k. Mike Fiers is a guy I’ll have a lot of interest in stacking against with the Jays here. He’s not striking anyone out and has a 35% hard contact rate on the season. That rate is a bit lower than I was expecting, but I think that regresses throughout the season more toward that 40% mark that I target when stacking.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: I love me some Jays here, they’re right there with the Twins as one of my top stacks on the slate.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I have more interest in Ryu than this Oakland offense.
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Atlanta Braves (-108) @ Washington Nationals (-100)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 4.6 IRT
Nationals – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
If you’ve been reading this article for the past year or so, you’ll know that I love stacking against Jon Lester and think he’s one of the more overrated pitchers in the MLB. Part of that is his inability to hold runners on so guys like Acuna, Albies, Swanson, and Pache of some solid steal upside if you’re looking to get some extra “outs/value” in your Braves stack. Drew Smyly will get the start for the Braves, and he’s giving up nearly a 40% hard contact rate on the season which is kind of that threshold I’m looking at when stacking, so the Nationals are interesting to me.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Yeah… I like the Braves here, they’re really expensive but I’m going to need Lester to prove me wrong before I stop stacking against him.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Victor Robles
GPP Note: I want to like the Nationals as a full-stack, but man this lineup is ugly right now.
Late MLB Games:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – 3.6 IRT
Marlins – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
Madison Bumgarner comes in as an underdog here, but I don’t think it’s because of the Marlins offense. Pablo Lopez is his mound opponent for the Marlins and has been really good this season. I do have some interest in Bumgarner due to how bad this Miami lineup can be. That said, they can be a bit pesky as well, so I don’t want to get too crazy, but Mad Bum has at least 5 innings pitched and 5 strikeouts in three straight games to go along with a win in all three games.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Pablo Lopez has been really good this season, so it’s hard for me to stack a bad offense in a pitcher’s park against him.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: I like Bumgarner more than I like the Marlins here.
Tampa Bay Rays (-) @ Los Angeles Angels (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – N/A IRT
Angels – N/A IRT
Rundown:
We don’t have an implied run total or a money line for this game as we wait for the Rays to announce a starting pitcher… followed by the long reliever they’ll likely throw. Whoever it is will get a nice matchup against a watered-down Angels lineup that will be without Anthony Rendon and gets pretty weak toward the bottom of the lineup. Andrew Heaney is a guy that you can use as a pitching option but also a guy you can make a compelling case to stack against. He’s given up at least 4 runs in two of his five starts but has looked good in the other three, so if you like the Rays, stack ’em up, if you like Heaney, start him. You’ll likely end up getting a lot of Heaney regardless due to this one being mostly a showdown slate, but I think you have to consider a stack against him in MLB DFS GPPs.
TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: I have some interest in a full-stack, but I’ll be more likely to go with a mini-stack here.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: The Angels are just so hard to stack due to how bad the bottom of that lineup is.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Minnesota Twins: I’ve been stacking against Jordan Lyles all season and it’s worked more times than not. He has an ERA over 7.30 and has given up at least three runs and a home run in every single start this season. The Rangers bullpen isn’t much better to back him up either. The Twins enter with a 4.8 implied run total so I don’t think they’ll be crazy chalky, but with a hard-contact rate over 40% for Lyles, I love the Twins here.
- Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays get a really nice matchup with Mike Fiers here. The Jays are a young team full of raw talent, so more often than not they’re going to struggle with pitchers with big strikeout rates because they can get a little chase happy. That said, Mike Fiers is not a strikeout guy, he just a 14.2% strikeout rate if we go all the way back to the start of last season. Not only do they have a ton of upside, but they’re relatively cheap outside of Guerrero and Bichette.
- Atlanta Braves: I’m going to do it and stick to the process of stacking against Jon Lester. The Braves are expensive but they have a ton of ways they can get to Lester here. Obviously, they could just hit him hard and get there, or they torment him on the base paths. He has nearly a 40% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season and this Braves team feels like a team that is figuring some things out at the dish as of late, love Atlanta here.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Max Kepler (DK – $3.4k; FD – $2.9k)
Whaddya say we go a little cheaper with today’s home run call and get the likely lead-off hitter for my top stack on the main slate in Max Kepler. Kepler has started the season slow and has yet to hit a homer, so do I get bonus points for predicting the first home run of the season for him? No? Ok. ANYWAY, going back to last season he has a .540 SLG nad a .274 ISO against right-handed pitching. I like the spot quite a bit for Mr. Kepler. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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