Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/5:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane Bieber
- Yu Darvish
- Martin Perez
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Rangers – Hyeon-Jong Yang
Twins – Lewis Thorpe
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Charlie Culberson
GPP Note: Texas is striking out at a 27% rate against LHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I like this game for some offense as the Braves bats should wake up in one of the plus spots and the Nationals have a few guys who have had great success against Fried. Because of the bats in this game, I have zero interest in using either SP at this point (in my first look).
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Trio above is 12 for 24 against Fried.
New York Mets @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is just 7 innings.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: JD Davis, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Striking out at a 26% rate against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Striking out at a 26% rate against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Undecided
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is just 7 innings.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Striking out at a 26% rate against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-160) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Bieber is spectacular with great upside while Singer has a bright future and has been really solid since his early struggles. I won’t be looking to use many bats from this game other than a one-off here or there. The Royals bats should be over looked and while I won’t stack against Bieber, I don’t mind the search for the one-off HR.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team AVG of .207 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Benintendi and Perez are 9 for 22 with 3 HRs against Bieber.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am not sure what I want to do with this game yet. Sonny Gray is a guy that I think is an excellent MLB pitcher so I rarely want to attack him but this CWS offense is pretty dangerous. The Reds are extremely dangerous at home but they are rather LH heavy in their everyday lineup.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Striking out at a 24% rate against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 at home this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins (-145)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Weaver has an HR issue but he gets to pitch in a big ballpark. Lopez has been solid and is capable of putting up pretty strong stat lines at lowered ownership. Neither team feels worthy of a full-stack so I would look to just use guys as one-offs with maybe a mini-stack in some GPPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox (-180)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am torn on what to do with this game. Perez is a guy I like to stack against but the Tigers are absolutely atrocious against LHPs this season. Mize is a big-time SP prospect who has flashed solid ability already but the Red Sox bats are pretty hot at the plate overall.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a ridiculous 38% rate against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 at home this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-130) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Phillies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Peralta is a guy that can come out and just dominate with strikeouts or he could give up 3 HRs in the first few innings. The Phillies have plenty of power but they aren’t swinging it overly well, especially if Harper is out of the lineup. Milwaukee’s lineup took a hit with Yelich going back on the IL and Hiura getting sent down to the alternate site.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 at home this season.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should go back to this game for offense again on Wednesday. Garcia has been pretty tough on RHBs but the Yankees have so many dangerous RHBs and ones that are starting to heat up. The Astros need to start to wake up and Montgomery can allow a lot of contact.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .104 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team has an ISO of .206 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners (-115)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both of these teams are pretty weak overall in terms of the offenses. There are a few bats here that look like strong plays overall but I think both SPs are worthy of being used in a low-totaled game. Kikuchi surprises me some but I think Means is really interesting but he’s very overpriced on FD.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics (-125)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I keep trying to stack this game and I keep getting let-down for the most part. The A’s get to face yet another LHP so I think they have a chance at some big innings because of Ray’s walk issues. Bassitt is a guy that I like to use and probably will have exposure but I will also be stacking the Blue Jays, yet again.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-111)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We should see some more runs here as there are a few Giants bats that hit Gray really well and the Rockies offense woke up late Tuesday night. It’s Coors so we are always going to see ownership so we need to dig into where we can find some leverage spots on the field.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 at home this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres (-240)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I love seeing this game with such a ridiculously low total. The obvious is because it’s Darvish pitching but Brubaker has really impressed me so far this season. He gets to take on a struggling SD offense while the PIT bats should have a lot of trouble with Darvish.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .124 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .132 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Brandon Belt, SF Giants
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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