Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/4:
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Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Trevor Bauer
- Johan Oviedo
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins (-153)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Twins – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Really excited to see the Twins take on the former Twins SP in Gibson. I feel like the Twins themselves are starting to heat up and Kirilloff is showing why he was such a highly rated prospect. Happ has looked decent enough that I have to consider him against this TEX squad.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Charlie Culberson
GPP Note: Texas is striking out at a 27% rate against LHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Kiriloff has 10 RBI over the last 4 games.
Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Nationals – Joe Ross
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I honestly feel like the Braves are in a great spot and that’s tough to say as I keep trying to pick on Ross and he keeps doing just enough to leave me frustrated. The Braves have very solid numbers against him in their careers. Ynoa is somebody that I think has a very bright future and getting the Nationals when they are without Soto is a great thing.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Yadiel Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .120 against RHPs so far this season.
New York Mets (-190) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We should see a pretty nice, low-scoring game here thanks to deGrom pitching and the Mets hitting when deGrom is pitching. Oviedo interests me because we know the Mets hate to score runs when deGrom is pitching and they have actually had their struggles against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Striking out at a 26% rate against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals (-140)
Pitchers:
Indians – Sam Hentges
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am really torn when it comes to my first look here. I don’t like the pitching options as I would guess that Hentges is more of an opener than a traditional starter (probably a 2-3 inning guy). As always, I will be stacking the Royals because I just can’t stop but they haven’t been as strong against LHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team AVG of .196 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Reds – Jeff Hoffman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game has a chance to be very high scoring even with the White Sox losing Yermin from their lineup in the NL park. The Reds are destroying the ball at home and visiting teams definitely enjoy the hitting environment in Cincinnati. Good spot for the White Sox to wake up, even without Luis Robert after his terrible injury.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .088 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 at home this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-111) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. McClanahan really impressed in his first start but this is a tough K match-up as the Angels just aren’t a big K team. I think the Rays offense is in an interesting spot to bust out a little bit as Cobb just doesn’t have it any longer, in my opinion. Mike Trout is always a guy we should look to be above the field on as he’s just getting it done every single night.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Riley Smith
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I absolutely love Alcantara and plan on being overweight on him in this game. The D’Backs are expected to have Walker back from the IL but I still just can’t get away from Alcantara. There won’t be a ton of offense in this game (duh, it has a 7.5 total) but there should be a spot or two to attack with one-offs at pretty low ownership.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox (-177)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Let’s be real here, the Red Sox and Pivetta are going to be super popular on this slate. The Tigers are striking out a ton so that puts Pivetta in a great spot and the Red Sox bats are capable of doing a ton of damage. Fulmer probably goes 3-ish innings with an LHP following him (Skubal or Norris).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 29% rate against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 5.5. Remember that this game is just a 7-inning affair. When we get these short games, I really love looking at the pitching on DK because of the CG bonus. The wind is blowing in from LF and it’s a bit cool in Chicago. Surprisingly a couple of the Cubs bats have had success against Kershaw.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 at home this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-228) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6. Like I said above, remember that this game is a 7-inning affair. Thompson is making his first career MLB start but I just don’t know how lengthened out he is. It’s a great match-up for Bauer, especially if the wind and cold stay for game 2. This game is on the DK main slate so I really want to get myself some Bauer shares as a CG-shutout double-bonus is very much within reach here.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 at home this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I absolutely LOVE using Nola when he pitches at home. He has such strong splits when at home that I think he’s in a great spot as the Brewers just aren’t overly dangerous outside of Yelich. Lauer surprised with a decent outing last time out but that has to change at some point. The Phillies should be in a plus spot, especially if Harper returns to the lineup.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I expect some offense in this game here as the Yankees seem to be heating up while the Astros should be able to get to German. I will be curious to see the weather in NY as we get that short porch in RF. Greinke seems to surprise every time I think he’s about to get smacked around but he just doesn’t have what it takes to blow away the power of the Yankees.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .092 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team has an OPS of .190 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am interested in some bats in this game as one-offs or mini-stacks as I just don’t think either team is worthy of a full-stack. Dunn has flashed solid ability and I could see myself ending up with a share or two on the night. Haniger just hit his 8th HR of the season as I am writing this.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics (-121)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Anthony Kay
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Another game that joins the CWS-CIN game in thinking that we could get to see some explosive offense. I have been picking on Cole Irvin and I think I am finally going to get it right here with the Blue Jays. Kay hasn’t been able to get outs at the MLB level and the A’s have done plenty of damage against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .253 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-125) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Again, a reminder that this game will go just 7 innings. Despite it being just a 7 inning game we see a total that will match the lowest of the 9 inning games. I think both SPs are fine in this scenario but I still like a handful of the bats. I haven’t looked at pricing yet but the SF bats were really cheap on Monday.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 at home this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Giants – Undecided
Rockies – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 at home this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres (-216)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see the total at only 8 when I woke up today. Weathers left the last game with some fatigue so it’ll be interesting to see how many pitches/innings he’s able to go. Keller has been really bad overall but has flashed some of the promises that made him a highly rated prospect. I think he struggles here and we see the SD offense wake up a little bit as I am going to go out on a limb and say they put up 7+ runs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .126 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team is 10 for 16 with 5 extra-base hits against Keller.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- Oakland Athletics
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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