Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/3:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Tyler Glasnow
- Walker Buehler
- Daniel Lynch
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins (-177)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wish I knew what was going on with Maeda this season. He was absolutely dominant and consistent in 2020 with the Twins. Now in 2021, he just can’t get outs consistently. I could see this game going to double-digits as I love what the Twins offense can do and Kiriloff is showing his true upside.
TEX 5-star plays: Nate Lowe
4-star plays: Nick Solak, David Dahl
GPP Note: Texas is striking out at a 31.2% rate against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Kiriloff has HR’d in 3 straight (4 total HRs).
New York Mets @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Mets – Undecided
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
Waiting on the Mets to announce their SP.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Lynch will be making his MLB debut and I have mixed thoughts on that. He is an extremely talented LHP but missing out on last year was huge for his development as he pitched at the A-ball level in 2019. I don’t think CLE is all that dangerous overall but the middle of the lineup can make it difficult on him. The Royals are always a team I have an interest in, especially with Benintendi heating up at the plate.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team AVG of .196 on the road this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-111) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We have such an interesting SP match-up in this game. Ohtani seems to be on the Glasnow path as he is throwing with some massive heat but he seriously has no idea where it’s going. Glasnow came up with a big arm and a lack of command. Glasnow has added a consistent third pitch and he’s showing a huge step forward at this point.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 at home this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-111)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. When I look at this game, I see a game that could very well end up being the highest-scoring game on the slate (even higher than the Coors game). The left-handed bats are going to be my main focus in this game. I don’t think either SP is actually in play for me at first glance.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Jackie Bradly, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: LHBs are hitting .341 with an OPS of .850 against Houser this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Mariners – Erik Swanson
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics (-121)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I always have exposure to Montas and I probably will here but I won’t be happy about it. The Blue Jays have an extremely dangerous offense, as long as everybody is healthy. Matz is a guy that I think is finally showing what he can do now that he’s away from New York. The issue here is that the A’s are smashing LHPs so far this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .253 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-111)
Pitchers:
Giants – Aaron Sanchez
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We get a Coors game on a smaller slate than usual. That should drive up the ownership and that might force me to look elsewhere. I know you will see that this game didn’t make my top 3 stacks but that was on purpose as, right now, I will be looking to play the ownership numbers and go underweight on this game.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 at home this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Padres – Miguel Diaz
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Moran and Polanco are a combined 13 for 31 over the last 5 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, St Louis Cardinals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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