Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/1:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Brandon Woodruff – Woodruff comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings, while he’s cheaper than both May and Rodriguez on FanDuel. He has a 31.2% strikeout rate on the season, but people will shy away from them because it’s a matchup with the Dodgers. The Brewers have held the Dodgers to just one run in the series so far and Woodruff normally hangs in with them pretty well. I’m more than willing to stomach the matchup here and chase the upside.
• Dustin May – Woodruff’s mound opponent here and has looked really good this season as well. He has at least 6 strikeouts in each game this season, and this Brewers lineup has some strikeouts in it. The one thing we’ve always worried about with young Dodgers pitching is how long Dave Roberts would let them go into the game. Especially on FanDuel where you’re getting that bonus for a quality start. Well, he’s had a quality start in two of his three games and a guy you can go right back to due to a matchup with a watered-down Brewers lineup.
• Griffin Canning – If you’re looking for upside at a cheap price tag, I think Canning is your guy here. He gets a matchup with a weak-hitting Seattle Mariners team in Seattle which tends to play better for pitching. He hasn’t been great this season but he’s got a 24% strikeout rate, so at the very least there’s some k upside. If your stack is expensive and you need a cheap option on FanDuel or a cheap SP2 option on DraftKings, I like his chances to at least get you some value tonight.

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Early Slate:

Miami Marlins (+138) @ Washington Nationals (-150)

Implied Run Totals:

Marlins – 3.9 IRT

Nationals – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

I actually like Patrick Corbin a decent amount here, yes I know he’s been extremely volatile this season, but this is about as good of a bounce-back spot as you can get. This Marlins team has some strikeouts in it especially with Lewis Brinson in there, I just like the value you’re getting on him at this price tag. Paul Campbell will get the start for the Marlins, and I’d be lying if I knew a ton about him. He’s appeared a few times this season but never as a starter. He has struggled with walks a bit and the ERA isn’t pretty, so if you want to stack the Nats up here, I have no issue with it.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Corbin than the Marlins here.

WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner

4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes

GPP Note: This Nationals lineup is pretty ugly right now, so I don’t want to go too crazy here, but this is a nice stacking spot nonetheless.

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Detroit Tigers (+192) @ New York Yankees (-212)

Implied Run Totals:

Tigers – 3.3 IRT

Yankees – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

Jameson Taillon comes into this one as a heavy favorite in a great matchup against the Tigers. He’s looked really good to start the season from a fantasy perspective. He has a 28.4% strikeout rate and a sub 30% hard contact rate. Due to how light the Tigers hit, I’ll have a decent amount of interest in Taillon here. Spencer Turnbull gets the ball for the Tigers here, he’s been somewhat effective this season but it seems like this Yankees offense may finally starting to break out.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum

GPP Note: No real interest in the Tigers here, I like Taillon quite a bit.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: If this Yankees team is starting to get hot, I want to jump on now.

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Kansas City Royals (+118) @ Minnesota Twins (-128)

Implied Run Totals:

Royals – 4.3 IRT

Twins – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

Danny Duffy is extremely priced up on FanDuel, but it’s hard to argue. He has at least 43 FanDuel points in each of his starts this season but comes in as the dog in this one. Matt Shoemaker and the Twins are favored here. That being said, if you’re looking for a pitching option in this game, it’s Duffy. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate on the season, but he is a guy that will blow up the second you start to believe he might be a decent pitcher, so I have no issue with a hedge stack or two on the Twins if you’re going heavy on Duffy. Shoemaker’s been just good enough to be annoying if you’re stacking against him this season, but I do have a soft spot for a Royals stack more often than not.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Santana

GPP Note: This feels like a good spot to mini-stack, I don’t think I’ll go all-in with a full-stack though.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: I have no issue with a full-stack of the Twins especially if Duffy comes in with high ownership, be sure to get those hard-hitting righties in your stack.

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Cleveland Indians (+158) @ Chicago White Sox (-173)

Implied Run Totals:

Indians – 3.7 IRT

White Sox – 4.9 IRT

Rundown:

Lance Lynn is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but for good reason. You know he’s going to go deep into the game with him, before he hit the IL, he had back-to-back 10+ strikeout games and gets a nice matchup with a weak-hitting Indians club here. Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Indians on the other side, I think he’s going to be a good major league pitcher, but it’s hard for me to love him here. This White Sox offense is no joke, I would rather stack up against him than run him out as an SP option. That being said, if you do want to go there in tournaments, I get it, he has a 32.3% strikeout rate on the year.

CLE 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jose Ramirez

GPP Note: You can find a better pitcher to stack against than Lance Lynn, so I’ll stick to one-offs.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn

GPP Note: The White Sox stack is a fun one because it’s really cheap with upside at the bottom of the order with guys like Andrew Vaughn and Mercedes in a way, more Vaughn than anything. I think he’s about to heat up.

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Baltimore Orioles (+171) @ Oakland Athletics (-187)

Implied Run Totals:

Orioles – 3.4 IRT

Athletics – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

Matt Harvey day! If you haven’t noticed by now, I love stacking against the former Dark Knight. He didn’t look all that bad last time out, but it was against a heavily slumping Yankees team. Now he gets a tough matchup with an A’s team that can hit, and hit, and hit some more. I like the A’s a lot here. Jesus Luzardo gets the start for the Athletics and is a guy I think you can go to as a SP option. The strikeout rate isn’t anything huge at 24.5%, but it’s enough in a good matchup against a bad Orioles lineup.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Luzardo than the Orioles offense in this one.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman

4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie

GPP Note: I love the Athletics stack here, you can mini or full-stack them, I love the spot.

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Houston Astros (-108) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+100)

Implied Run Totals:

Astros – 4.1 IRT

Rays – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Jose Urquidy gets the start for the Astros here, he’s priced way up on DraftKings but I think he’s a guy you can get to on FanDuel at just $7.4k if you need a cheaper pitching option. The Rays aren’t a team that scares me all that much from an offensive perspective. That said, the strikeout rate on Urquidy is below 20%, so on DraftKings, he’s just too expensive, so get your exposure on FanDuel. Josh Fleming will start for the Rays, he’s not really a guy I want to target for DFS due to the strikeouts not being there. He doesn’t have more than three strikeouts in any game this season.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but I get it if you’re looking for some big upside.

TBR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows

GPP Note: I think Urquidy is just good enough to be annoying to stack against, so more of a deeper GPP stack.

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Chicago Cubs (+144) @ Cincinnati Reds (-157)

Implied Run Totals: 

Cubs – 4.0 IRT

Reds – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

Zach Davies will take the mound for the Cubs, and boy it has not been pretty for the little guy. He’s got his ERA up near 10 this season, and he’s just getting hit around a helluva lot more than he did last season. I like the Reds quite a bit here and I’ll be stacking teams against Davies until he figures it out. Luis Castillo comes in REALLY cheap considering his talent. I get it, he hasn’t been good this season, but this guy can pitch when he’s on. Going back to the start of last season he has a 27% strikeout rate and nothing about this Cubs lineup scares me, so I like taking a shot on Castillo here.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: I have a feeling I’m going to end up with a lot of Castillo in this one.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin

GPP Note: The Reds are top stack for me on the early slate.

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New York Mets (+112) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-121)

Implied Run Totals: 

Mets – 3.6 IRT

Phillies – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets and he’s been pretty effective this season. He can be volatile but coming off a quality start last time out on his way to 43 FanDuel points. The top of the Phillies lineup is enough to scare me though, more of a GPP guy. Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies, and with the way this Mets team is hitting right now, I have no issue chasing that 58 point game he had last time out. It’s a revenge game against his former team as well.

NYM 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Dom Smith

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack if you think the Mets will break out of their funk here.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto

4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius

GPP Note: It’s not my favorite stack, but I can see why you would have GPP interest against Walker.

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St. Louis Cardinals (-138) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+127)

Implied Run Totals: 

Cardinals – 4.1 IRT

Pirates – 3.5 IRT

Rundown:

The last game until we hit the main slate, and it’s a matchup between Jack Flaherty and Trevor Cahill. Flaherty comes in with really good form, he has at least 36 FanDuel points in four straight games and gets an elite matchup with the Pirates here. Cahill, not so much, he did get a win against the Twins but he’s been up and down all season long. I just have more confidence in the Cardinals offense than taking a shot on him in this spot.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: I like the Cardinals a good deal here, and they’re probably cheaper than they should be.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran

GPP Note: I’m going to like Flaherty in this matchup, so not many Pirates for me.

Main Slate:

Boston Red Sox (-184) @ Texas Rangers (+168)

Implied Run Totals: 

Red Sox – 5.0 IRT

Rangers – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

Eduardo Rodriguez will start for the Sox here in a really nice matchup with the Rangers, the only issue here is potential weather. So keep an eye on our Weather Station, if it’s good to go, I’ll have a good deal of interest in E-Rod here. Jordan Lyles takes the mound for the Rangers, and against this offense, should not be considered as an option. The Red Sox are hitting the snot out of the ball and Lyles isn’t going to miss many bats. He has just a 15% strikeout rate on the season.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Alex Verdugo

GPP Note: You can load up on the Sox in a great matchup against Lyles.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe

GPP Note: Just those one-off home run bats here for me against Rodriguez.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+115)

Implied Run Totals: 

Dodgers – 3.7 IRT

Brewers – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

I have both these pitchers written up at the beginning of this article and are guys I think you can get to here. Woodruff may come in lower owned than he really should be due to the Dodgers offense having such a reputation to it. That said, they’ve scored just one run so far this series and now get the Brewers ace. May has been good as well over his past few starts and this Brewers lineup is pretty watered down right now with Yelich out and Hiura not hitting… oh and their best hitter this season, Omar Narvaez, will likely sit as well as he pulled up lame last night.

LAD 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Max Muncy

GPP Note: I like Woodruff more than the Dodgers stack, but you can always make a case for them due to the firepower in that lineup.

MIL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw, Jackie Bradley

GPP Note: There are some cheap one-off options in this lineup if you need a cheap bat, but I like May a good amount here.

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Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+120)

Implied Run Totals: 

Braves – 5.6 IRT

Blue Jays – 5.0 IRT

Rundown:

This game has a pretty big implied run total which generally doesn’t bode well for the pitchers. That said, Charlie Morton will get the start for the Braves here, he’s been pretty hit or miss this season but I think you can make a GPP case for him if you need a mid-range guy. Tommy Milone will be the long reliever for the Jays here, and let me tell ya, he can be frustrating to stack against, but this Braves team seems to be figuring things out after starting the season really cold, I like them a good deal here.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

4-star plays: Austin Riley

GPP Note: I like the Braves a lot here, the only issue with a full-stack is the price tags on these guys.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, George Springer, Bo Bichette

GPP Note: I never love stacking against Charlie Morton, so I won’t have a ton of interest in anything outside of one-off guys.

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Colorado Rockies (+165) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-181)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rockies – 3.4 IRT

Dbacks – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

Austin Gomber will take the mound for the Rockies, he’s coming off a start where he gave up nine earned runs to the San Francisco Giants and didn’t make it out of the second inning, but had been good up to that start. I do think people will try and stack against him here, and maybe they shouldn’t. Gomber has a pretty average 34.6% hard contact rate on the season and this Dbacks lineup isn’t exactly a world-beater. If you want to get different in tournaments I do think you can throw 5% Gomber in your lineups. I do like Zac Gallen on the other side of this one quite a bit. This Rockies lineup is not good right now. He has a huge upside with a 28.5% strikeout rate in a nice pitching park as well.

COL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trevor Story, CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, I like Gallen quite a bit.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Pavin Smith, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: The Dbacks may be popular here, but I’ll be underweight, Gomber had a bad outing last time out, but I don’t see that happening (to that extent) again.

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Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Seattle Mariners (+115)

Implied Run Totals: 

Angels – 4.5 IRT

Mariners – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Griffin Canning at the start of this article and he’s a guy I do like as a cheap option if you’re spending up on bats. He hasn’t been good this season, but he’s a talented young pitcher that I think can succeed in this matchup. The Mariners aren’t a great offense, so I like getting to him here. Newsome will get the start for the Mariners in a tough matchup with the Angels, I won’t touch him here, but I do like getting to some Angels stacks here.

LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh

GPP Note: The Angels are a solid stack here, I just hate how weak the bottom of the lineup gets.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Canning than this Seattle offense.

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San Francisco Giants (+154) @ San Diego Padres (-168)

Implied Run Totals: 

Giants – 3.3 IRT

Padres – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

It’s pretty tough not to like Blake Snell in this spot, however, he hasn’t been as good as you may have thought this season. He’s yet to go over 100 pitches, which may be a theme with him due to how banged up the rest of this Padres rotation is. But, he’s got nearly a 32% strikeout rate and gets a pretty average matchup with the Giants, I like him a good amount especially in tournaments with the huge upside he has. Anthony DeSclafani has been great to start the season off, but the price tag along with the matchup is enough to take me off him here even though I think he’s going to have a nice season, there are better options today.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey

GPP Note: Just those one-off lefty mashers for me here, I like Snell a good deal.

SDP 5-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer

4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatis Jr.

GPP Note: I don’t have a ton of interest in DeSclafani here, but he’s good enough to keep me off a Padres stack.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Boston Red Sox: I think they’re pretty far and away the best stack on the main slate due to the matchup with Jordan Lyles and the rest of that Texas Rangers bullpen. They come in with a 4.9 implied run total and have been one of the best offenses in the league to start the season off. Lyles has given up one of the higher hard contact rates on the main slate this season at 34.6%, go get yourself some Red Sox here… although they will be expensive.
2. Los Angeles Angels: The Angels draw a good matchup with Ljay Newsome who gets the start for the Mariners. The only thing I don’t like here is the ballpark, Seattle tends to play big and benefit pitchers more than anything, but I think the spot is good enough to overcome that. Newsome leads the slate with a 38.2% hard contact rate and the Angels have some big bats to take advantage of that.
3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves seem to be heating up, so let’s jump on them while they’re hot. The one issue with stacking the Braves is the damn prices on these guys are through the roof. If we look at DraftKings, the first four batters are all over $5k and d’Arnaud who hits five is $4.9k. So the best way to stack them up in my eyes is to get Riley and Pache at the bottom of the lineup and wrap it around a bit.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Marcell Ozuna (DK – $5.1k; FD – $3.3k)

What’s not to like about Ozuna here? He gets a matchup with a left-handed pitcher, in a nice ballpark, with the wind blowout out at about 10 mph. He has a home run in two of his last three games and comes in with a 0.636 SLG and a 0.364 ISO against lefties on the season. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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