Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/9:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Walker Buehler
- Lance McCullers Jr.
- Tyler Mahle
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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-290)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Buehler was horrendous during the spring but he was solid in his first start of the season. Ross might get to face the Dodgers at the right time as a couple of the guys are dealing with some ailments but I still wouldn’t want to be Joe Ross today.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: The Nationals are a bit rough with so many on the IL (COVID ISSUES).
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
GPP Note: The Dodgers are going to be missing Bellinger tonight but Seager has owned Joe Ross.
San Diego Padres (-180) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
Today’s game offers a total of 9. Will be interesting to see if the roof is open or not. Arihara was strong in his debut, which surprised me a bit since he spent most of the spring stating how his hand wasn’t adapting to the large baseball in America. I am intrigued by Musgrove with San Diego this season. I feel like part of his issue with Pittsburgh was just focus. He gave up some HRs, even in games where he was showing dominant stuff.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: SD gets to use the DH today so we should see a stronger lineup, even without Tatis Jr.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, David Dahl, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: The Rangers aren’t a very dangerous team but they do have powerful LHBs.
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New York Yankees (-130) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Rays – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with an 8.5 run total. In today’s baseball, we don’t get to see a match-up of two grizzled veteran SPs very often. I don’t think Rich Hill has much left overall and the Yankees should make some hard contact against him early and often. Kluber intrigues me because the Rays bats have been pretty cold to begin the season and he flashed some stuff this spring and in his Yankee debut.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: I think the Yankees hit 3+ HRs today.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Just looking at guys as one-offs with upside.
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Cincinnati Reds (-135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Diamondbacks – Taylor Widener
Rundown:
This game has opened with a 9 total. Arizona heads home, away from their series at Coors, but they get to take on a team who just put up a TON of runs. Widener was shockingly strong in his first start against SD but I have little faith that he does that again in this one. Mahle should be on everybody’s radar this evening.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: The Reds bats are getting it done and should be pretty popular.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Mainly just looking at ARI one-offs, if I use them at all.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-157)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get afternoon west coast baseball with the Rockies leaving Coors. I point that out because it’s a legit thing and creates a potential Coors hangover (I hated those in college). Gomber couldn’t throw a strike in his debut start and now takes on a team that loves hitting LHPs. Cueto is getting up there in innings but he has the stuff to surprise offenses over 5-ish innings.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Mostly looking at one-offs.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Longoria is 6 for 10 with 3 HRs against LHPs this season so far.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
Today’s game has opened with a total of 8. These two SPs just faced off earlier this season with Wheeler dominating the Braves while Morton was just serviceable. The ATL bats have awoken a little bit so we should see a little different game here. Wheeler has been really good with PHI so I expect this game to be lower scoring.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Mini-stacks of PHI feel like the way to go (both sides feel like mini-stacks, to be honest).
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Freeman loves facing Wheeler.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-172)
Implied Run Totals:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. McCullers looked really strong in his debut and the A’s bats have yet to wake up. Manaea gave up 2 HRs in his first start, which was against HOU. This ballpark is much more of a hitters park than OAK is. Both of the HRs he gave up actually were to LHBs so that’s concerning for his prospects in this spot.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Mostly a one-off situation against McCullers.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Martin Maldonado, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: The Astros have 169 team ABs in their careers against Manaea.
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Blue Jays – Undecided
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas information as Toronto hasn’t listed an SP yet.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Not sure if you guys knew this or not but Mike Trout is really good at hitting baseballs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: The power against LHPs is real in this lineup.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians (-180)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Julio Teheran
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Plesac should carry plenty of ownership against this DET team and I understand why but I might sneak in some DET stacks for leverage. Teheran was spectacular in his first DET start and now he faces a struggling CLE squad. Traditionally we like to target LHBs against Teheran.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Plesac has K upside but he can struggle randomly too. Mini-stacks of Detroit could be a low-owned, GPP winner.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Teheran looked spectacular in his first start but long-term, he should struggle a ton (especially against LHBs).
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Cincinnati Reds: The Reds leave the cozy confines of their home ballpark but they get to visit another park that has been known for offense. I expect the Reds to be very popular on this smaller slate so we need to decide if we want to go overweight or underweight.
- Houston Astros: Manaea is a solid SP but the Astros have some solid numbers against him and they just knocked him around in his first start of the season.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Remember that this game is taking place in Florida, at a spring training facility. Generally, those parks are smaller and the weather is conducive for hitting HRs.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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