Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/8:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Jose Berrios – Berrios looked electric in his first start against the Brewers, taking a no-hitter deep into that game and striking out 12 batters on just 84 pitches. He comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, but for good reason. He gets a matchup with a Mariners team that doesn’t exactly have the greatest offense and comes in with an implied run total of just 3.4 runs. Going back to the start of last season, Berrios is giving up a hard contact rate of just 32.2%, it’s really hard not to like prioritizing him on this slate.
• Corbin Burnes – Let’s take a look at Berrios’s mound opponent last time out in Corbin Burnes. He also took a no-hitter deep into that game while striking out 11 on just 87 pitches. The thing you know you’re going to get with Burnes is strikeouts. Going back to last season, Burnes has a strikeout rate of 37.9% which is about 10% points higher than anyone on this slate and you get a small discount on him compared to Berrios as the highest-priced pitcher.
• Tyler Anderson – I touched on the top two pitchers in terms of salary to kick this thing off, so let’s go dumpster diving. Tyler Anderson gets a matchup with the Chicago Cubs here who come in with an implied run total of 4.6 in Pittsburgh. Anderson has the park factor in his favor here as Pittsburgh plays very big and is a benefit to pitchers. Anderson has faced the Cubs once already this season, in Wrigley, he threw 5 innings of 3 run ball on his way to 15.1 DraftKings points. The Cubs bats are struggling to open the season, so why not take that and run with it?

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Main Slate:

Miami Marlins (+125) @ New York Mets (-149)

Implied Run Totals:

Marlins – NA

Mets – NA

Rundown:

It looks like Nick Neidert is going to get the start for the Marlins in this one, we don’t exactly have a ton to work off of from him, but did throw well in spring with a 2.84 ERA in 12 innings with 15 strikeouts. It appears there is at least some talent here, but the Mets offense is one that I’ll one to jump on. They put up just two runs yesterday but now they go home and get this Marlins team out of Miami, they probably won’t be my favorite stack on the slate, but they’re definitely in contention. Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Mets, Walker was pretty solid in spring as well as he battled injury a bit (shocker), but he gets the better matchup here and if you’re looking to target one of these pitchers, it would be him.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Jazz Chisholm

GPP Note: I don’t really want to full-stack the Marlins, but I think you can mini-stack the top of this order with guys like Dickerson, Marte, and round it out with a big bat in Aguilar or Duvall. Chisholm adds some speed upside as well if you want to throw him in as a fourth man.

NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso, Dominic Smith

4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: The more I look at this stack the more I like it, they’re a top stack contender here.

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Chicago Cubs (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+124)

Implied Run Totals:

Cubs – 4.6 IRT

Pirates – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Tyler Anderson in the pitching segment as a guy you can get to as a cheap SP2 today. The Cubs are really struggling to start the season and are hitting just 0.132, which won’t score you a whole lot of runs. In a pitchers park, I think I’m more likely to throw Anderson out there than to attack a struggling Cubs offense. Jake Arrieta will get the start for the Cubbies, he scored 21.3 DraftKings points in his first outing against the Pirates this season. He doesn’t jump off the page at you but the thing he does have going for him here is the park factor and the matchup, the Pirates may be the worst offense in baseball.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

GPP Note: The implied run total isn’t too bad on the Cubs, but man it’s hard for me to get to them.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: I’m more likely to go with the pitching in this game than get many bats here.

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Boston Red Sox (-159) @ Baltimore Orioles (+146)

Implied Run Totals:

Red Sox – 5.1 IRT

Orioles – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for the Red Sox here, he’ll face an Orioles team with an implied run total of 4 runs on the road. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since 2019 but appears to be stretched out here, so we don’t need to worry about a 3 inning outing unless he’s just flat out not pitching well. He had a 2.63 ERA in spring and looked really good, so I don’t hate him as a GPP option considering the matchup with the Orioles. Then we get good ole Matt Harvey on the mound for the birds. Going back to last season he has a 48.5% hard contact rate and an ERA near 10, the Red Sox are going to be one of my favorite stacks on the slate.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Alex Verdugo

GPP Note: Love me some Red Sox here, we do have a game in Coors on this slate, so I don’t think they’ll be as popular as they should be. They’re a top stack for me.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Maikel Franco

GPP Note: This offense is not pretty, I’d rather take a shot on Rodriguez.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+109) @ Colorado Rockies (-118)

Implied Run Totals:

Diamondbacks – 5.4 IRT

Rockies – 5.8 IRT

Rundown:

On to Coors field, where we have an implied run total over 11 runs which is by far the biggest on the slate. I think we can pretty safely avoid pitchers here, both Kelly and Gray struggled last season, so let’s load up on some bats. Both stacks are really pretty doable due to their price tags, we don’t have a team coming in that’s overly priced, so we can make some things work here. If I had to pick between the two, the Rockies would be my preference, it feels like they have more upside in some of their power bats.

ARI 5-star plays: Josh Rojas, Christian Walker, David Peralta

4-star plays: Tim Locastro, Pavin Smith

GPP Note: Solid stack all around given the park factor and price tags.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, Dom Nunez

GPP Note: The more I look at this lineup, the more I favor the Rockies lineup in this game.

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Seattle Mariners (+167) @ Minnesota Twins (-183)

Implied Run Totals: 

Mariners – 3.4 IRT

Twins – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Jose Berrios to start the article, he’s a top pitching option on this slate so I think we can just cross off the Mariners as a whole. The Twins are a different story but don’t exactly have a great matchup against Marco Gonzales. Gonzales struggled on opening day giving up 5 runs to the Giants, but he was pretty solid last season allowing a hard contact rate of just 38.4%, and really kept the ball on the ground with a ground ball rate of 36.6%. I don’t know that I love either of these offenses, but if you’re taking a shot on one, take the upside with the Twins.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: There really isn’t a whole lot that I love here.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: I think a mini-stack is firmly in play with these hard-hitting righties, anytime a left is on the mound I’ll have interest in Nelson Cruz.

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Kansas City Royals (+149) @ Chicago White Sox (-162)

Implied Run Totals:

Royals – 3.8 IRT

White Sox – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

Brad Keller… do I have some words for you…so, I went pretty heavy on Keller on Opening Day, as most of you know, that did not go well. Keller really struggled giving up 6 earned runs in just 1.1 innings. He can take his 40.5 ERA and go pound sand. Lance Lynn will be his mound opponent here and a guy I think we can get to as a pitching option. The Royals have a team total under 4 runs and Lynn has a hard contact rate of just 32.4% going all the way back to the start of last season.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

GPP Note: I would have more interest in Lynn than stacking against him.

CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: Yermin Mercedes, Yasmani Grandal

GPP Note: Keller probably won’t be as bad as he was on Opening Day, but I still think we can stack against him pretty easily.

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Milwaukee Brewers (-132) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+122)

Implied Run Totals:

Brewers – 4.3 IRT

Cardinals – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll round off the main slate with the Brewers and Cardinals and a pretty solid pitching matchup. I touched on Corbin Burnes earlier, he’s a great option on this slate. I think we can get to Adam Wainwright as well, the Brewers aren’t starting the season all that great from the plate and striking out a decent amount as well. He’s a really solid mid-range SP2 option on this slate. If you’re looking to stack a team here it has to be the Brewers, I think Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and that’s not just my homerism speaking. The Brewers have a pretty special 1/2 punch in Woodruff and Burnes.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Omar Narvaez

GPP Note: I’m probably more likely to mini-stack the Brewers more than anything, they’re just not hitting well enough as a team for me to love a full stack.

STL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, I like Burnes a good deal here.

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Late Games:

Los Angeles Angels (+103) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-111)

Implied Run Totals:

Angels  – 5.0 IRT

Blue Jays – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

Both of these teams come in with pretty healthy implied run totals. Griffin Canning and Ross Stripling will take the mound and aren’t exactly gas cans. Both pitchers have a hard contact rate of under 37% going back to last season but do carry some large ERAs, so maybe some positive regression coming their way?

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: The Angels would be my preferred stack here, I would want to attack Stripling over Canning.

TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero, Marcus Semien

GPP Note: Canning is a solid young pitcher, I like his chances of doing well here against a chase-happy Toronto lineup.

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Oakland Athletics (+140) @ Houston Astros (-152)

Implied Run Totals:

Athletics – 4.5 IRT

Astros – 5.6 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll get a matchup of Cole Irvin and Christian Javier to round out the slate of baseball. Javier pitched against the A’s once already this season and went just 3.2 innings, he wasn’t terrible but wasn’t exactly great either. Irvin got hit around pretty good in this matchup earlier as well, the Astros would be the stack I would want here. On a two-game slate, I think Javier is a serviceable option due to the limited pitching pool.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha

GPP Note: They’re a fine mini-stack on the late slate, don’t be afraid to use some batters against your opposing pitcher on this slate.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez

GPP Note: The Astros would be my preferred stack in this game, they hit around Irvin pretty well last week.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Boston Red Sox: As I mentioned when breaking this one down, the Red Sox are a top stacking option for me on this slate and I think we can get them lower owned than they should be due to having a game in Coors Field. They get a matchup with Matt Harvey who is giving up hard-hit balls left and right. Harvey has a 48.5% hard contact rate going all the way back to last season with a 9.37 ERA, and the bullpen isn’t going to help him much either.
2. Colorado Rockies: Speaking of Coors Field, the Rockies are my second favorite stack on the slate going up against Merrill Kelly. Kelly had a hard contact rate of 46.5% last season but was able to hide it in his ERA somehow. The Rockies implied run total is well over five here and I think they get to Kelly early and often. The good thing about the Rockies is they’re not as expensive as you might think and have a huge upside.
3. Chicago White Sox: Brad Keller burned me on Opening Day, so why not stack against him here? The Sox come in with an implied run total of 4.8 here in a solid matchup against Keller, he’s a big ground ball guy so these bats will have to get under them a bit, but it’s hard not to like the firepower this offense can bring in a pretty solid matchup.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Rafael Devers (DK – $5.4k; FD – $2.9k)

Let’s go right back to the Red Sox, my number one full-stack on tonight’s slate. When I’m home run hunting I’m looking for a big ISO number accompanied by supporting stats like SLG and wOBA as well, but that ISO number is a measure of true power, essentially. Devers has an ISO of 0.264 and a wOBA of over 0.350 against righties in 2020/21 and gets an awesome matchup against Matt Harvey who gave up a 46.5% hard contact rate last season. I love me some Devers tonight! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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