Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/7:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Trevor Bauer
- Aaron Nola
- Kenta Maeda
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Minnesota Twins (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Boyd looked strong to start the season but this Twins team loves facing LHPs and they seem pretty close to busting out as they are getting plenty of baserunners. Maeda finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in the AL last season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Willians Astudillo, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Nelson Cruz is LOCKED in at the moment. Sitting out the first series of the season and yet still leading the MLB in HRs as of this writing.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team roster is just 13 for 59 against Maeda.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
We are waiting on Vegas’ information for this doubleheader.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Atlanta got to Scherzer for 4 HRs on Tuesday.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Luis Garcia, Trea Turner
GPP Note: The Nats are dealing with a bunch of COVID issues, so this team is more of a one-off/mini-stack bunch at this point.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Nationals – Stephen Strasburg
Rundown:
We are waiting on Vegas’ information for this doubleheader.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Atlanta got to Scherzer for 4 HRs on Tuesday. Strong BvP from the above 3 against Strasburg.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Trea Turner
GPP Note: The Nats are dealing with a bunch of COVID issues, so this team is more of a one-off/mini-stack bunch at this point.
Toronto Blue Jays (-180) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
Wednesday’s game offers a total of 8.5. Will be interesting to see if the roof is open or not. They had it closed on Tuesday night but there were two double-dong performances. Ryu is going to take advantage of the ballpark but Gibson could have trouble against the power of the Blue Jays.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Gibson was lit up by KC on opening day and we know TOR is loaded with power.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Rangers aren’t a very dangerous team and Ryu is so strong at limiting hard contact.
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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-195)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a 9.5 run total. Means shut down the Red Sox in a spot where I thought he would struggle. This is another spot where I think he struggles as it looks like the Yankees are slowly turning it up. So much power in the Yankees lineup. As far as Taillon goes, he is making his first official start in his return from Tommy-John.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Not going to pick on Taillon unless it’s with one-offs or mini-stacks.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: The runs are going to start coming for this Yankees offense.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-213)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with an 8.5 total. We saw the Reds explode on Tuesday and I have a feeling they aren’t done. The Pirates are not a good team so the Reds should continue to hit, especially at home. Pittsburgh’s lineup looks a whole lot weaker without Ke’Bryan Hayes. Votto has dominated Kuhl in his career.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: I don’t trust the PIT offense even if Castillo looked rough in his first start.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: There’s some nice upside in this offense in a nice hitters park, I like taking advantage of the Reds here.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-115)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
We get a Coors field game between a couple of not-so-good teams. The game has opened with a total of 11.5. The weather scared me off of Coors on Tuesday night and it’s going to drive me nuts. We could see some more HRs here as Bumgarner just can’t keep the ball in the yard at this point in his career.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
4-star plays: Stephen Vogt, David Peralta
GPP Note: Marte and Walker are a combined 17 for 34 against Senzatela.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: MadBum continued his post-SF career with more HRs allowed. Not a great trend heading into Coors.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I have VERY little interest in the offenses here so I need to be about the pitching. Lopez should go overlooked and I think he’s a strong play but this slate has a bunch of pitching to choose from.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: One-offs if I use any STL bats at all in Miami, against Lopez.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: I’m not in love with anything from the Marlins other than Lopez.
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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-145)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
Wednesday’s game between these two teams has opened with a total sitting at 8. Nola has some pretty elite splits at home in his career so I am going to use those as I think some guys blindly play the Mets bats. Peterson allowed way too much contact in the spring so look for the PHI bats to get going in this one.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Smith and Alonso are 13 for 47 with 5 2Bs and 4 HRs against Nola.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Peterson picked up ONLY 3 Ks in 12 Spring innings.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-111)
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
Wednesday’s game between these two has opened with a total set at 9. I haven’t been too impressed by the TB offense so far this season but the Red Sox keep drawing me in. I really like this match-up for the Boston bats as a few guys hit LHPs extremely well and have strong history against Yarbrough.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Mostly just one-offs or mini-stacks for me.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Feels like a spot to get on the Red Sox as I think I will be on them all season long when facing an LHP.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
The game has finally opened with a run total of 9. The wind is blowing out to LF but we do get a couple of pretty strong SPs taking the mound. I can see this game playing well under the total or I could see a handful of HRs being hit and the hitters being in the GPP winning lineups.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: The offense has looked pretty rough this season but if the wind is blowing out again, they can hit a handful of HRs.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Going to be an interesting spot. Woodruff is a near-elite SP but he starts seasons somewhat slow from a K standpoint.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Oakland Athletics
Implied Run Totals:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am all about Bauer this season as I really think he’s figured things out from an SP standpoint and he’s shown that he’s probably the best at studying and getting himself ready for starts. It wouldn’t shock me if he knew the OAK hitter tendencies better than they actually know themselves.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers are a team we should be stacking every single day of the season, even when they aren’t on the slate.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Just looking at one-offs for the HR upside. Bauer can allow HRs (as seen in his first start) but I am not banking on many of them.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-153)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
Tuesday night’s game has opened with a total of 8. This game offers some strong pitching options as Gausman has really impressed me with what he’s been able to do and we know how dominant Snell can be. The Padres without Tatis are definitely not as dangerous while the Giants are at their best against LHPs so maybe they provide some trouble for Snell.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: I’ll use the Giants as a leverage stack against Snell as I much prefer them against LHPs.
SDP 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado
GPP Note: I like the Padres but I think Gausman has figured things out and is now a true ace at the MLB level.
Chicago White Sox (-153) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
We get the lowest total on the day here as it sits at 8.5. I was shocked to see the White Sox a larger favorite with Keuchel on the mound than they were with Giolito. What that tells me is that SEA is considerably worse against LHPs. Dunn has been really solid at the MLB level so this could turn into more of a pitcher’s duel than we might think.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Dunn allowed a TON of baserunners during the spring.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: This offense is just bad and they should finish with one of the lowest IRTs on the slate.
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians (-)
Pitchers:
Royals – Junis/C.Hernandez (opener/Long-reliever)
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information to update.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Takes some big ones to attack Bieber. The above 2 are the BvP plays from KC.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Just looking for one-off GPP plays. MAYBE a Rosario-Reyes mini-stack.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays: Kyle Gibson allows too much contact and the Blue Jays are loaded with bats who hit the ball extremely hard. I want to be on the breakout train for Toronto when it happens, not after it happens.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Peterson allowed WAY too much contact this spring and allowing contact against a strong, veteran lineup usually ends up being a bad thing.
- Minnesota Twins: I am going to attack Boyd because he’s left-handed. Buxton looks to be healthy again so he and Cruz are providing some ridiculous pop in the middle of the Twins lineup. Mitch Garver nearly went down below in my Dinger of the Day call.
MLB Dinger of the Day – JD Martinez, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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