Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/6:
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Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Lucas Giolito –
- Yu Darvish –
- Tyler Glasnow–
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Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – J.A. Happ
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This is the only noon game on the slate, so if you’re looking for some action on this one you’ll have to get it in a showdown contest. This game has opened with a total of 9. The Twins busted out hard against DET (both the SP and the bullpen) on Monday. Hot offenses are fun to target but that’s going to make them a bit more popular.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Mize allowed 15 runs and 4 HRs during the spring but he did rack up 27 Ks.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Team roster has 29 Ks in 120 PAs against Happ.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals (-115)
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
We finally get to see Scherzer take the mound after the Nationals had their first 4 games PPD due to COVID positives. The Braves struggled mightily in their opening series so it’s tough to think their bats will come alive against Max. Tonight’s game has opened with a total sitting at 8. Smyly was solid this spring and he should be in a plus spot here as he helps to neutralize the top bats of the Nationals since he’s left-handed.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Atlanta was ice-cold in Philly and now they face Scherzer, I will pass until they heat up.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Yan Gomes, Trea Turner
GPP Note: The Nats have a stackable offense but I prefer them vs RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-121) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
Tuesday’s game between these two teams has opened at 9.5 runs. With a total sitting so high, I almost have to assume they plan on the roof opening for this game. We saw last season that when the roof is closed, the ball really doesn’t fly. Dunning was acquired by Texas in the Lance Lynn trade and he has upside but he only threw about 8 innings in the spring so we are looking at probably 4-5 innings at the most. Roark allowed 10 runs in 10.2 spring innings so he comes in not on top of his game.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Just 6 HRs through 4 games so far (“just”) but I expect that number to go up in a hurry, soon.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, David Dahl
GPP Note: The Rangers aren’t a very dangerous team so I will look for one-off HRs.
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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-295)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with an 8.5 run total. Cole struck out 8 in his first start of the season and he now makes his second start on the same day that Washington plays their first game of the season. Kremer was terrible in the spring but he flashed randomly last season. The Yankees bats should be fairly popular overall.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Maikel Franco
GPP Note: Not going to pick on Cole unless I have to build a hedge lineup based on my MME ownership of Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: The runs are going to start coming for this Yankees offense.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-153)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Cahill
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a 9 total. We are generally always going to target bats at Great American Ballpark and this slate should be no different. The issue here is that PIT is pretty bad, especially without Hayes near the top of their lineup. We need to learn about Castellanos’ suspension appeal as he has started out the season pretty hot.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: I don’t like Miley but it’s really tough to like Pittsburgh against an LHP without Hayes.
CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: There’s some nice upside in this offense in a nice hitters park, I like taking advantage of the Reds here.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-115)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
We get a Coors field game between a couple of not-so-good teams. The game has opened with a total of 10.5. I generally try to ignore teams in their first game at Coors during a series but it’s going to be tough here. The D’Backs bats have had success against Marquez and I love me some BvP spots.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: Always love stacking Coors and Arizona has hit Marquez well in their careers.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Weaver gave up 8 HRs in 14.2 Spring innings. That’s not a good thing going into Coors.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – John Gant
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Alcantara looked strong all spring and he followed that up with a very strong opening day performance. If I were to pick an offense to have mini-stacks of in this game, I think I would look at the top part of the Marlins offense or maybe a Chisholm as a one-off.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: One-offs if I use any STL bats at all in Miami, against Alcantara.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: I’m not in love with anything from the Marlins and am more tempted to go with Ponce de Leon than anything really.
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New York Mets (-130) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Phillies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
Tuesday’s game between these two teams has opened with a total sitting at 9. This is an interesting SP spot as Stroman was strong all spring and is decent overall against PHI while Anderson can be dominant, especially against LHB heavy lineups. Speaking of LHB heavy lineups, the Mets probably roll out a bunch of LHBs in this one. Anderson’s reverse splits are pretty strong so we need to think about that.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Conforto is 3 for 13 with 3 HRs against Anderson
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Stroman isn’t deGrom so the Phillies should be more comfortable here but they aren’t expected to go nuts from a run-scoring standpoint.
Tampa Bay Rays (-145) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
Game 2 between these two has opened with a total set at 9. I am a little shocked at the total here as Glasnow is an elite K guy and Perez gets to neutralize a handful of the TB lineup. I have a feeling that people are going to stack against Perez here and while I understand the thought, the Rays offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders.
TBR 5-star plays: Mike Brosseau
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Mostly just one-offs or mini-stacks for me.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Pretty tough to stack against Glasnow, maybe HR hunt with one-offs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-111)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
The Vegas information has finally posted and we get a total sitting at 9.5. The wind looks to be blowing out at Wrigley so we should see some offense as it’s going to be decently warm in Chicago. Peralta has upside with his K ability but he is mostly a flyball pitcher and that could be a bad thing tonight.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: The offense has looked pretty rough this season but Alzolay could allow a bunch of baserunners thanks to some control issues.
CHC 5-star plays: Wilson Contreras
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Going to be an interesting spot. Peralta can rack up K’s but he also can allow some HRs. Weather is going to be key!
Houston Astros (-111) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Angels – Griffin Canning —- Dylan Bundy will start as Canning will have his spot skipped today so that Bundy can pitch on normal rest.
Rundown:
We get an early west coast start time here so we see a total at 9. Daytime baseball in So Cal can surprise with some runs so I am interested in offenses here, especially HOU bats as Canning can have some HR problems. Greinke isn’t going to light up the radar gun and that is always a worry when you go against a team with STUD hitters in Ohtani-Trout-Rendon.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley (DTD)
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, Yordon Alvarez
GPP Note: Houston has put up 35 runs in the first 4 games (5th game is currently still going on).
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: The top half of the Angels lineup is where we should look to stack, maybe the middle half. Pujols and Upton have strong numbers in their careers against Greinke.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-157) @ Oakland Athletics
Implied Run Totals:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. My first thought about this game is, what the hell do I do here? Kershaw looked horrendous all spring long and then struggled in Coors for game 1 of the season. The A’s offense hasn’t gotten started yet so maybe he offers us some strong upside. Bassitt is one of my favorite sneaky pitchers in baseball but this Dodgers offense is just rolling to start the season (currently have 9 runs on the board Monday night).
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: The Dodgers are a team we should be stacking every single day of the season, even when they aren’t on the slate.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Just looking at one-offs for the HR upside.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-203)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – Aaron Sanchez
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Tuesday night’s game has opened with a total of 8. I hope we get to see a bounceback from Darvish here but the Giants are pesky. I prefer Giants bats against LHPs so Darvish should be a pretty popular play. Sanchez threw just 5.2 innings this spring and he wasn’t sharp after being out of baseball last season. He was an arm that had a TON of hype in his A.L. days and I believe he won an ERA title at one point.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: I’ll use the Giants as a leverage stack against Darvish but mostly just interested in one-offs.
SDP 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Victor Caratini
GPP Note: I like the Padres but as I was putting this together Tatis injured his shoulder on a swing.
Chicago White Sox (-140) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Mariners – James Paxton
Rundown:
We get the lowest total on the day here as it sits at 7.5. Giolito and the White Sox should end up pretty chalky in this spot. Paxton was absolutely ridiculous during the spring, striking out 17 in 8.1 innings. I would assume he’s probably limited to about 5 innings here if all goes his way.
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert
GPP Note: White Sox has done plenty of damage the last couple of seasons against LHP. They will miss Tim Anderson if he’s still out.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: This offense is just bad and they should finish with the lowest team IRT on the slate.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Colorado Rockies: Luke Weaver allowed 8 HRs in 14.2 spring innings. This game is in Coors and if you aren’t aware, a lot of HRs happen in this park. There were 32 extra-base hits in the opening series at Coors (4 games)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are the hottest offense to start the 2021 season and that shouldn’t surprise us. The bats don’t appear to have any hangover going on as they are in double-figures on Monday night again. I like Bassitt but he is in a very tough spot against a lineup that is just loaded top-to-bottom.
- San Diego Padres: I am thinking that SD goes overlooked with the injury to Tatis. Sanchez wasn’t very strong in the spring and he sat out last season. This is just a spot where I want to go overweight on SD with guys like Hosmer, Myers, and Cronenworth.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Albert Pujols, LAA
I could have gone to Coors and picked guys like Peralta, Marte, Blackmon, or Story but I wanted to go to a spot that I think is forgotten about. We aren’t guaranteed to see Pujols in the lineup as Walsh is swinging a strong bat but I want to be able to use Pujols. The main reason is that Greinke is a soft-tossing SP at this point and the main knock on Pujols at this point in his career is his inability to handle hard fastballs. He’s had a ton of success against Greinke in his career.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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