Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/5:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Jacob DeGrom – DeGrom is the highest-priced pitcher on tonight’s slate, but for good reason. He finished with a 38.8% strikeout rate last season and a hard-hit percentage of just 33.6%. The Phillies have an implied run total of 3.1 runs in this one which is pretty easily a slate low. We don’t have a Coors game on this slate so we don’t really NEED to pay up for a stack or guys in cash games. I think you start your cash games with DeGrom and lock in some guaranteed points.
• Carlos Rodon – I touched on the most expensive pitcher on the slate, so let’s go dumpster diving with Carlos Rodon on the road in Seattle. The Mariners come in with an implied run total of 4.2 runs and have a pretty weak lineup all around. His strikeout rate was down last season, but he’s a career 22.6% k guy which isn’t all that bad considering the price tag. He allows you to jam in more bats along with DeGrom.
• Adrian Morejon – I would expect Morejon to be a popular guy on this slate simply due to the matchup, and it’s not all that great of a pitching slate as a whole. If Morejon comes in as heavy chalk I don’t mind a leverage Giants stack, the Giants should fare well against lefties this season. The thing he does have going for him here though… strikeouts. He’s a career 28.1% k guy, but some of it did come from the bullpen. I think he’s a good option, unless the field is going to make him more popular than he should be. This will be an ownership play for me.

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Early Games:

Minnesota Twins (-138) @ Detroit Tigers (+127)

Implied Run Totals:

Twins – 4.6 IRT

Tigers – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

This is the only noon game on the slate, so if you’re looking for some action on this one you’ll have to get it in a showdown contest. We get a pitching matchup of Matt Shoemaker and Jose Urena here with the money coming in on Shoemaker. In a showdown, you obviously want to target both pitchers to lock down those points, but you can get to the Twins as a mini-stack as well. I would leave the Tigers for one-offs due to how weak the lineup is. So as far as roster construction goes, start with those pitchers, then go to the Twins bats and fill in with a one-off or two from Detroit.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler

4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: It’s tough to full-stack on showdown contests, so you’ll have to mini-stack here. The Twins would be my preferred side due to the strength of the lineup as a whole.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Nomar Mozara, Wilson Ramos

GPP Note: Pretty much opposite of the Twins, I’ll just be looking for filler pieces from the Tigers.

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Toronto Blue Jays (-154) @ Texas Rangers (+142)

Implied Run Totals:

Blue Jays – 5.3 IRT

Rangers – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

Steven Matz will take the mound for the Jays here and looks like a really solid option against the Rangers lineup that is going to strike out a ton. If you’re playing this afternoon slate, it’s tough not to like him in this spot. The Jays have the highest implied run total on this short slate so people will be on them here, but I’m not all that convinced that this is a no-brainer spot for them. Folty missed most of last season and finished 2019 with a 4.54 ERA after having a sub-three ERA in 2018. The hard contact percentage hasn’t been all that large on him either. Yes, this is probably the best spot for any offense in this short slate, but there are some holes.

TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez

GPP Note: I touched on this a bit in the breakdown, but if you’re going to stack them on this short slate, make your stack a little different so it’s not as chalky as the rest of these Jays stacks.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I like Matz quite a bit on the early slate.

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Kansas City Royals (+101) @ Cleveland Indians (-110)

Implied Run Totals:

Royals – 4.5 IRT

Indians – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

Danny Duffy is back in our lives and takes the mound for the Royals in this one. I like stacking against Duffy because he’s pretty home run prone against opposing right-handed batters. He gave up 1.69 HR/9 last season, so if a few of these Indians batters can get on base for a big home run or two, you’re in good shape. Logan Webb takes the mound for the Indians and was really pretty bad in the minors last season after being lights out in 2018. He’s a popular breakout candidate this season, but I still think you can mini-stack against him in this spot at the very least.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, Carlos Santana

GPP Note: Probably more of a mini-stack due to the matchup, but I’ll continue to like the power/speed upside they bring.

CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Jordan Luplow

GPP Note: I like the Indians as a nice stack in this afternoon slate, they bring a ton of upside to the table.

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Baltimore Orioles (+190) @ New York Yankees (-220)

Implied Run Totals:

Orioles – 2.5 IRT

Yankees – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

This is the first game of an odd turbo slate including three games at 6 ET. Jordan Montgomery will take the mound against Jorge Lopez of the Orioles. This is a pretty good spot for Montgomery, the Orioles are going to strike out a good deal this season and struggle pretty heavily on the offensive end, so he’s a pitcher I’d be looking at on this slate. Then the Yankees offense is one we can stack up as well, they have some big home run upside and some cheaper bats with Aaron Hicks and the bottom of this lineup to make the full-stack work.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle

GPP Note: I’m fine with some one-offs or even a mini-stack, but I just don’t love this lineup at all.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce

GPP Note: The cheap bats in Hicks and Bruce make the full stack pretty affordable in a good matchup with Lopez and that Orioles bullpen.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) @ Cincinnati Reds (-150)

Implied Run Totals: 

Pirates – NA

Reds – NA

Rundown:

I can’t say I love either Brubaker or Jose De Leon here, but De Leon will be in play simply due to the matchup. The Pirates are hot garbage at the plate, but the thing with them is they’ll be pesky, so they’re not a no-brainer, stream pitchers against them every time sort of offense. If De Leon can be efficient he’ll have a nice fantasy day. I do like the Reds a bit as a stack on this afternoon slate, they have some nice upside at the top of this order with guys like Winker, Castellanos, Suarez, and Moustakas.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Gregory Polanco, Kevin Newman

GPP Note: Mini-stack team at best with guys like Polanco, Newman, and Frazier/Moran in a nice ballpark for hitters.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos

GPP Note: There’s some nice upside in this offense in a nice hitters park, I like taking advantage of the Reds here.

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St. Louis Cardinals (-110) @ Miami Marlins (-110)

Implied Run Totals:

Cardinals – NA

Marlins – NA

Rundown:

Ponce de Leon will take the mound for the Cardinals here and actually wasn’t all that bad last season from a DFS perspective if we dig a little. He had a strikeout rate over 30% and a pretty average 35% hard contact rate. If you’re looking for an SP2 on this afternoon slate, I think you could do worse. Trevor Rogers will get the start for the Marlins here and had a pretty solid strikeout rate in the minors in his short career as well, I don’t mind him for GPPs. If I’m stacking one of these offenses it’s probably the Cardinals, but I think you can make a GPP case for the Marlins due to that ERA Ponce de Leon put up last season.

STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson

GPP Note: This is a good spot for the righties on the Cardinals, I like the full-stack as well.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar

GPP Note: I’m not in love with anything from the Marlins and am more tempted to go with Ponce de Leon than anything really.

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Main Slate:

New York Mets (-201) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+183)

Implied Run Totals:

Mets – 4.2 IRT

Phillies – 2.9 IRT

Rundown:

The Mets will finally get to make their season debut here as they were postponed all weekend due to the Covid breakout on the Washington Nationals. They’ll send Jacob DeGrom to the mound who I touched on in my pitcher’s section. The Phillies implied run total actually fell to 2.9 runs overnight, he’s pretty easily the best raw pitching option on the slate. I don’t see myself having much interest in Matt Moore against this Mets lineup that should be able to get them into playoff contention.

NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso

4-star plays: James McCann, J.D. Davis

GPP Note: I especially love the righties in this lineup to get the platoon advantage on the left-handed Matt Moore, but I think I full stack is firmly in play here.

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryce Harper

GPP Note: I don’t see a reason to get much more than a one-off, if that, against DeGrom here.

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Tampa Bay Rays (-117) @ Boston Red Sox (+108)

Implied Run Totals:

Rays – 5.0 IRT

Red Sox – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

The Rays will send Michael Wacha to the mound, he finished 2020 in pretty good shape with just a 35.5% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate above 23%. The thing that is going to hurt him here is the Red Sox bats, the bottom of the order isn’t the greatest but 2-6 is pretty dang tough with guys like Martinez, Bogaerts, and Devers in there. That being said, it may shock you that the Rays are actually my preferred stack in this game. The Red Sox pitching struggles are no secret heading into the 2021 season and Pivetta isn’t going to help those problems. He had a 44.7% hard contact rate last season and the bullpen isn’t going to save him much behind him. The Rays bring in an implied run total of five here, they’re a top stack for me on this slate.

TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Randy Diaz, Mike Zunino

GPP Note: Stack em up! When I’m stacking teams, I like to look past the starting pitcher because the bullpen can be just as big when breaking down a matchup, and man does this Red Sox staff stink as a whole.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts

GPP Note: I do like the Red Sox, but would prefer the middle of that order, so maybe more of a mini-stack team.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+102) @ Chicago Cubs (-110)

Implied Run Totals:

Brewers – NA

Cubs – NA

Rundown:

We don’t have implied run totals on this game yet due to the wind in Wrigley, but I would expect them to come in fairly high as our Weather Station is showing the wind to be blowing out to dead center at about 12 mph which will be a nice boost for these bats. Anytime the wind is blowing out at Wrigley it essentially takes me off wanting to own either pitcher, as fly balls turn into home runs real quick, so let’s take a look at these offenses. The thing that may keep these totals down a bit, is both these pitchers limited hard contact pretty well last season and Anderson is a huge ground ball guy at nearly 57.7%. As much as Trevor Williams was able to limit that hard contact, he still came in with an ERA over 6 from last season, so I’ll side with the Brewers in this one, but the Cubs are in play as a full/mini-stack as well.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Omar Narvaez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

GPP Note: They can throw a lot of lefties at Williams here, and with the wind blowing out, I like a full-stack. They make for a pretty cheap stack as well.

CHC 5-star plays: Wilson Contreras, Kris Bryant

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: No issue with a full stack here, Brett Anderson isn’t exactly a world-beater.

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Houston Astros (+110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-119)

Implied Run Totals:

Astros – 4.6 IRT

Angels – 5.0 IRT

Rundown:

We like to target those hard contact rate as a measurement of good offensive plays and boy do we have some bats to target here. Jose Quintana ended last season with a 50% hard contact rate while Luis Garcia was at 41.2%. It’s tough not to love both of these offenses, top to bottom the Astros have some bigger names, but you’ll also be paying for those names. Whereas the Angles have Trout and Rendon up the middle but you can get some savings on guys like Upton and some of those bats near the bottom of the order to make a wrap-around.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Yordon Alvarez

GPP Note: It’ll be interesting to see the Astors lineup, they could throw guys like Myles Straw and Chas McCormick toward the bottom of this order and would provide some excellent salary relief for this stack. But otherwise, they’re a top stack on this slate if you can afford them.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Max Stassi

GPP Note: The middle of the lineup is definitely the strong part, which is normal, but can fall off toward the bottom. I like them regardless here.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-154) @ Frankie Montas (+141)

Implied Run Totals:

Dodgers – 4.8 IRT

Athletics – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

This one could turn into a sneaky pitchers duel, both Dustin May and Frankie Montas are really good MLB pitchers, so it would not shock me. May probably won’t blow you away with strikeouts but he can miss the middle of bats with the best of them. Montas is the strikeout guy, he finished last season with a 25.3% strikeout rate, he’ll likely be pretty low owned due to the matchup, but if you want to take a flyer on him in tournaments, I have no issue with that. I don’t love either of these stacks due to these pitchers, so I’ll likely keep my exposure to one-offs and mini-stacks and attack other spots on this slate.

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts

4-star plays: Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Gavin Lux

GPP Note: The prices on these guys are nuts right now, and the matchup isn’t all that great. You can make a case for a mini-stack and one-offs but I’ll have a hard time going much deeper than that.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mitch Moreland

GPP Note: Definitely the cheaper side of the game, but May is a good young pitcher, I’ll find my bats elsewhere.

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San Francisco Giants (+148) @ San Diego Padres (-161)

Implied Run Totals:

Giants – 3.8 IRT

Padres – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Morejon at the beginning of this article, keep an eye on his ownership, we could get real sneaky with a Giants stack here if he starts to find himself being pretty chalky. This Giants team is going to hit lefties well this season and Marorejon gave up a 42% hard contact rate last season. Anthony DeSclafani will take the mound for the Giants but he’ll have a tough task against this Padres offense. DeSclafani wasn’t all that bad last season, but man this Padres stack just builds itself with cheap guys like Pham and Cronenworth to make it work.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Buster Posey, Donovan Solano

GPP Note: I’ll use the Giants as a leverage stack here if Morejon starts to get chalky.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer

4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham, Wil Myers

GPP Note: I like the Padres stack quite a bit here, it’s a really easy build as well due to the value they have.

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Chicago White Sox (-123) @ Seattle Mariners (+113)

Implied Run Totals:

White Sox – 4.5 IRT

Mariners – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Carlos Rondon at the beginning of this article and I think he makes some sense as a salary relief SP2 option on DraftKings. He probably won’t be anything all that special, but it’s a good matchup and if you need some salary relief to get to your stack or some one-off bats, I like him quite a bit. Justus Sheffield… not so much, he has some talent, but so does this White Sox offense. I would rather take a shot on those bats than Sheffield here.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: The Sox should have no issue getting to Sheffield early and often here. It’s not the greatest ballpark for hitters, but this offense is good enough to overcome it.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France

GPP Note: This offense is just bad, they have some nice sticks at the top of the order, but outside of that… yeesh. I’ll take my chances on Rodon here.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Tampa Bay Rays: As I mentioned in their write-up, the Red Sox pitching staff is in shambles. They’ll send Nick Pivetta to the mound here after giving up a hard contact rate of nearly 45% last season. The Rays come in with an implied run total of 5 runs in this one and make for a pretty cheap full-stack outside of Arozarena. You can easily jam a 5-man stack in here with DeGrom as your SP1 and feel damn good about your lineup. There really isn’t a bat in this Rays lineup that I won’t like tonight, I can’t say I love Tsutsugo, but if he’s hitting leadoff at just $2.9k, you really can’t go wrong. The Rays are my top stack on the main slate.
2. Houston Astros: The only thing that would make this spot better for the Astors is if they were at home and had some garbage bins to bang on. Jokes aside Jose Quintana was awful last season and this Astros team will be able to mash left-handed pitchers. Quinata finished 2020 with a hard contact rate of 50%, half the balls in play were hit hard for those of you without calculators this morning. With an implied run total of 4.6, it may keep their ownership down a bit which gives us even more leverage, load up on the Stros here. 
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Another wind game in Wrigley! Our Weather Station shows the wind as blowing out to left-center at around 12 mph for this game tonight, so hopefully, we’re looking at a launchpad at home plate for these Brewers batters. Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Cubs and was able to limit hard contact pretty well last season, but it wasn’t reflected in his 6.18 ERA. About 55% of the balls in play of Williams were fly-balls last season, so maybe we can run into a few cheap homers here as well. I love the Brewers as my final full stack on tonight’s main slate.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Alex Bregman (DK – $5.5k; FD – $4.5k)

Let’s go right back to the Astros, my number two full-stack on tonight’s slate. When I’m home run hunting I’m looking for a big ISO number accompanied by supporting stats like SLG and wOBA as well, but that ISO number is a measure of true power, essentially. Bregman has an ISO of 0.375 and a SLG of over 0.700 against lefties in 2020/21 and gets an awesome matchup against Jose Quinata who gave up a 50% hard contact rate last season. I love me some Bregman tonight! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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