Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/4:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Civale – Civale is somebody that I think people jam in because he’s facing the Tigers. I am not sold on his upside as he hasn’t flashed the K upside we look for and Detroit has been a pesky team so far to begin this season.
- Brady Singer – Singer is somebody that I think takes a step forward this season and the KC offense is scoring runs right now. I want to see if he’s able to change his splits from last season as he wasn’t very strong at home, despite pitching in a pitcher’s park.
- Tarik Skubal – People overlook Skubal because Casey Mize is in the big prospect name in the Tigers rotation. We know that the Indians lineup isn’t the traditional run-scoring machine. For the money, I would rather use Skubal in this game than Civale.
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Toronto Blue Jays (+) @ New York Yankees (-157)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – TJ Zeuch
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
We get a total set at 9.5 in this game. German is making his return after serving a suspension for an off-the-field situation. He looked really strong this spring and actually beat out a highly touted pitching prospect in Deivi Garcia. This is a tough game to want to use a pitcher but I will get a share or two of German due to his upside.
TOR 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: The baby Jays aren’t too far behind the Yankees as a team. This is a team we should be stacking basically daily.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (I don’t expect him to play, however)
GPP Note: Power up and down this lineup. Only a matter of time before they break out with a 3-4 HR game.
Cleveland Indians (-125) @ Detroit Tigers (+)
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
I am very intrigued by the pitching in this game. We have a total sitting at 8.5 runs at open between these two teams. Civale should be in a solid spot against a pretty weak DET lineup. On the other side, Skubal is an extremely talented young arm and I am looking forward to watching him this season. These teams have scored just 12 runs combined through the first two games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: The Cleveland bats have struggled to start the season but one good sign is that they have just 11 Ks so far through 2 games.
DET 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: I think Civale is going to carry ownership so a mini-stack or two of the Detroit bats could pay off.
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Baltimore Orioles (+) @ Boston Red Sox (-172)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of double-digit runs (10). Zimmermann won a spot in the rotation despite allowing 7 runs with 3 HRs in 13.1 spring innings. The Red Sox have very limited experience against him so that generally works out in the pitcher’s favor. Richards was even less impressive this spring, allowing 22 baserunners and 9 runs in 13.2 innings of action.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Having such a high total means we have to look at the Orioles but I don’t “love” the lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: The Red Sox are cold to start the season. Well, minus JD Martinez that is.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+) @ Chicago Cubs (-)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
We are waiting for the Vegas line and total as we generally do for games at Wrigley Field. Keller was absolutely horrendous during the spring and I am starting to wonder if he’s been vastly overrated for years as a prospect. He allowed 31 baserunners in just 11.1 spring innings. Davies was strong in his spring debut with the Cubs and I think he’s going to be a very solid SP for them, especially in the weather at Wrigley. He’s an extremely underrated pitcher.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: I am not going out of my way to pick on Davies unless the wind ends up blowing out.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: The offense has been much so far but this match-up is primed for a breakout.
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Texas Rangers (+) @ Kansas City Royals (-172)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles, Wes Benjamin
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
We get a total set at 9.5 for this game as we have seen the first two in this series go over the run total. The Rangers are going with a tandem start (at least that’s what is planned). By going with a tandem, we can eliminate both guys as options until we see how Texas plans to handle their tandem starts. Singer intrigues me as a young arm who flashed success last season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: David Dahl, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: If Singer is going to struggle, it will be with the Texas LHBs.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: KC has 25 runs on 28 hits through the first 2 games of the season.
Atlanta Braves (-121) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+)
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total sitting at 8.5. Anderson was electric to end last season which raised his hype coming into this season. He wasn’t overly sharp during spring but he did rack up Ks. The Braves offense is starting out the season pretty cold and Eflin was really strong this spring, picking up 10 K’s in 11 innings while allowing just a solo HR.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: The Braves have K’d 24 times already this season.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: 23 K’s through the first 2 games of the season.
St. Louis Cardinals (-111) @ Cincinnati Reds (+)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Reds – Jeff Hoffman
Rundown:
This game opened with a total sitting at 9.5. I stacked against Martinez a bunch during the spring and it didn’t exactly work out for me. I will probably go ahead and do it again but seeing that the Reds have just 2 career HRs against him doesn’t excite me. Hoffman has not had much success at all after being a 1st round pick. He’s been really bad against RHBs so far at the MLB level. I do really believe this game is going to be key to our MLB DFS Sunday.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neil
GPP Note: Hoffman, while struggling some with LHBs, has definitely been a reverse splits pitcher at the MLB level.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just 2 HRs in 130 PAs as a roster against Carlos Martinez.
Houston Astros (+) @ Oakland Athletics (-111)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with an 8.5 total. Houston has dominated this series so far so it’s kind of surprising to see them as the underdog on Sunday. Urquidy has been extremely strong against Oakland in his career and actually leans reverse splits at the MLB level. Oakland has 28 K’s through 3 games in this series. Manaea flashed K upside this spring but allowed runs to the tune of a 5.28 ERA.
HOU 5-star plays: Martin Maldonado, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Houston has 36 hits through 3 games so far.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matat Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Urquidy has been strong against Oakland in his career
Minnesota Twins (EVEN) @ Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Michael Pineda
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game opened at a total set at 8. We saw both SPs dominate in this match-up on Saturday but now we get “lesser” pitchers facing off on Sunday. I could see both offenses struggling a bit here but I also could see a few bats wake up with an “easier” match-up. Pineda struggled to get outs this spring while Houser allowed 11 runs in 17.2 innings.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Houser has struggled mostly with LHBs but Buxton is flashing the power for MIN.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Manny Pina
GPP Note: Pineda has leaned reverse splits in his career.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-245) @ Colorado Rockies (+)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
Back to Coors! This game has opened with a 12 total. Urias was strong all spring and I am excited to see him get to actually pitch in the rotation this season. We have seen plenty of offense in Coors so far and I don’t think Gomber is going to stop that from continuing in this game on Sunday. Coors field is ALWAYS a place that we target with our MLB DFS lineups.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Gomber has actually been more reverse splits at the MLB level but he hasn’t in Coors since 2018.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 off of Urias in their careers.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+) @ San Diego Padres (-216)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Taylor Widener
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
The final game in this opening series between these two sports a total set at 9. Paddack is somebody that I can’t figure out. He burst onto the scene a couple of seasons ago and looked like a future ace. He allowed 13 runs in 11 spring innings and was said to be working on his third pitch offering. Widener racked up 19 Ks in 14.2 spring innings but he gets a pretty tough match-up. This game should be a solid one for our MLB DFS lineups.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: David Peralta, Stephen Vogt
GPP Note: Paddack isn’t as good, right now, as the average DFS’er thinks.
SDP 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Padres have 12 extra-base hits through 3 games.
Chicago White Sox (+) @ Los Angeles Angels (-121)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
Sunday Night baseball game number 1 of the season has opened with a total of 9. The word is that Ohtani is going to pitch AND hit for himself in this game. I am very interested in seeing that happen. Cease looked EXTREMELY strong during the spring as he struck out 22 in 17 innings while allowing just 2 runs. Ohtani was NOT sharp at all during the spring, despite apparently throwing a baseball 102 MPH.
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Grandal is known as a guy who can handle the top fastballs in the game.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout
GPP Note: The Angels have scored 17 runs through 3 games so far.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Saint Louis Cardinals: St Louis has dented the plate for 17 runs through the first 2 games and now they get an SP who has struggled at the MLB level, especially against RHBs. That’s music to STL’s ears as their 2-6 hitters should all be right-handed. They may not have the highest team total on the slate but I love the spot for the main bats.
- Chicago Cubs: We are still waiting on the total for this game but Keller was absolutely abused this spring and he hasn’t shown much at the MLB level yet. If the wind ends up howling in, I reserve the right to drop them down my rankings. If that were to be the case, I would slide either the Yankees or Red Sox into the 3-spot.
- Kansas City Royals: The Royals bats are rolling to start the season. I see no reason to jump off at this point. They have put up 25 runs on 28 hits so far in this series. Basically, the entire lineup is contributing so far, except for Benintendi.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt
Goldy has a couple of things working in his favor here. The ballpark is an excellent hitter’s park and he’s had success against an RHP who is a reverse splits pitcher (4 for 7 with a double). He is 5 for 9 with 2 doubles to begin the season so natural progression means a multi-hit game with an HR on Sunday.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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