Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/3:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Happy Opening Day and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Corbin Burnes – This is a 7:10 ET game so you’ll be able to target Burnes on the later slate, but I think he looks like a really strong option here. The Twins come in with an implied run total of 3.6 runs here after scoring five on Opening Day. They didn’t exactly look like world-beaters in game one either, striking out a total of 17 times. Burnes ended last season with a career-high 13.27 strikeouts per nine to go along with his Cy Young contending 2.11 ERA. The strikeout upside here is what should get you excited and at a pretty cheap price tag as well, I love me some Corbin Burnes here.
• Zach Plesac – Let’s go to the early slate and target that Detroit Tigers lineup. The Tigers ended last season with a 27.3% strikeout rate to go along with Plesac’s 9.27 strikeout per nine in 2020. That strikeout per nine number isn’t going to blow you away but this lineup is not good. They come in with an implied run total under four runs here and the wind is blowing in from right field at around 15 mph. I wish he was slightly cheaper, but it’s hard to pass up on the matchup that he gets in this one.
• Mike Minor – Dare we go back to the Royals pitching staff after what Brad Keller did to us on Opening Day? I would have a hard time saying no considering the matchup with the Rangers. Minor had a down season last year but still was able to put up good strikeout numbers which is key in MLB DFS. He had a 9.85 strikeout per nine and this Rangers team is going to strike out a ton this season. They had a 25.5% strikeout rate last year, and I’m only expecting that to climb as they’re one of the worst offenses in baseball. If people are going to see what the Rangers did on Opening Day and avoid this spot on Minor, I’m going to be overweight the field.

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Early Games:

Toronto Blue Jays (+150) @ New York Yankees (-164)

Implied Run Totals:

Blue Jays – 4.0 IRT

Yankees – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

We get a pitching matchup of Ross Stripling and Corey Kluber in this one. The book is still out on how effective Kluber will be this season after throwing just one inning in 2020 and posting a 5.80 ERA in 2019. Now moving to an extreme hitters park it will be interesting to see what he’s able to do here, he’s always been a nice K/9 guy so the upside will be there on him if he can avoid the big inning. I don’t really see a reason to go with Stripling on the other side, he had just an 18.2% strikeout rate and the Yankees have one of the better lineups in baseball. I do think you can make a case for a Yankees stack here pretty easily. Aaron Hicks in the middle of the lineup provides some nice salary relief to tie it all together, so it’s not so expensive as well. The Yankees are currently third on the early slate with a 5.1 implied run total, so they shouldn’t be all that chalky either.

TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Marcus Semien, Teaoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez

GPP Note: They should be pretty low owned in a great hitters park against a pitcher that we’re not sure is all that good anymore, I like taking a GPP shot on them in this one.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Jay Bruce, Aaron Hicks

GPP Note: There’s a few ways you can stack them up without needing to avoid the expensive $5k bats at the top of this one. Either you go some combination of 1-6 and grab Hicks has a cheap bat in the middle, or you can get it really cheap and make a wrap-around stack to include Jay Bruce in at as well at $2.3k. Something like 7-8-1-2-3 would come in under $20k as a full stack on DraftKings.

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Cleveland Indians (-163) @ Detroit Tigers (+150)

Implied Run Totals:

Indians – 4.8 IRT

Tigers – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Zach Plesac in the pitcher’s section and is probably a guy I’ll get a good chunk of on the early slate simply due to the matchup with this Tigers lineup. I don’t really see a reason to go with Julio Tehran on the other side, the hard contact percentage wasn’t terrible at 38.7% last season but the strikeout numbers just weren’t there on him. I would rather take my chances and stack up the Indians and pitch Plesac, so I don’t see myself getting much of any exposure to this Tigers team as a whole.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Ben Gamel

GPP Note: The Indians will make for a pretty cheap stack especially if you can get cheap bats like Ben Gamel potentially leading off and Josh Naylor in the middle of that lineup at $2.5k. They can throw a lot of lefties at Teheran

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Wilsom Ramos

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I like Plesac quite a bit on the early slate.

Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.

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Baltimore Orioles (+157) @ Boston Red Sox (-172)

Implied Run Totals:

Orioles – 4.4 IRT

Red Sox – 5.8 IRT

Rundown:

This game comes in with a pretty healthy implied run total as a whole after putting up just three runs yesterday. Neither of these pitchers is all that interesting to me, Houck hasn’t had all that much big league experience so I don’t know how comfortable I would feel throwing him out there even in a good matchup. We know what Matt Harvey brings on the other side as well, he’s a long time removed from his dark knight days in New York. I think the Red Sox make for a really intriguing stack here and is probably my favorite full stack on the early slate… I know, going out on a huge limb betting on the highest IRT, but I do like it.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini

GPP Note: Probably more of a mini-stack due to how weak the lineup is as a whole.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: The Red Sox stand out as a full-stack that I’ll have interest in due to the matchup and the implied run total.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+156) @ Chicago Cubs (-170)

Implied Run Totals:

Pirates – NA

Cubs – NA

Rundown:

As always, we don’t have a total on this game as I write this the night before due to how much the wind takes effect on the scoring in Chicago. At the moment, it looks like the wind will be blowing out to dead center at around 15 mph which should be a pretty major boost to hitters in this one. If the wind stays as is, I’ll have a lot of interest in both these offenses and probably will just stay away from the pitching as a whole. If it shifts at all you can make a case for Jake Arrieta, but I don’t really want to be forced to go there, so I’m hoping this wind projection stays true! I’ll write up the below rankings assuming this wind is blowing out as we have projected.

PIT 5-star plays: Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds

4-star plays: Anthony Alford, Kevin Newman, Colin Moran

GPP Note: I’ll pretty much always have interest in offenses in Wrigley when the wind is blowing out, pop flys turn into home runs real quick.

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Ian Happ

4-star plays: Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: Similar story for the Cubs, Tyler Anderson isn’t a guy that is going to scare me even a little. Keep an eye on our Weather Station, but at the moment I’m running with this wind projection. The Cubs make for a great stack as well.

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Texas Rangers (+143) @ Kansas City Royals (-156)

Implied Run Totals:

Rangers – 4.3 IRT

Royals – 5.4 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Mike Minor in my pitcher’s section at the start of this article, but he’s a guy I’ll have a decent amount of exposure to here. As far as Kohei Ariahara goes, we don’t have a whole lot of info on him as a big-league baseball player. He had a 3.86 ERA in spring training, but I just don’t think he’s a guy I’m going to take a chance on with a sub 20% strikeout rate in his years in Japan. As far as stacks go, I think I’m going to be on the Royals quite a bit this season due to the power and speed combination they bring to the table especially if they can get to this Rangers bullpen early, they could be in for a big day.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo

GPP Note: Just a one-off or two here, hopefully, people chase their Opening Day production, I don’t see it happening again.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier

GPP Note: I was all over the Royals on Opening Day and I’ll go right back to them in this one.

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Atlanta Braves (-104) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-104)

Implied Run Totals:

Braves – 3.8 IRT

Phillies – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

This looks to be a pretty even game all around, from the spread to the pitchers, to the money lines, a very even matchup. Both Charlie Morton and Zack Wheeler are serviceable starters and guys I don’t necessarily want to target bats against, so I don’t see myself fully stacking either side of this game. That being said, I’m not all that comfortable running these pitchers out there either due to how good both offenses are. It may be more of a stay-away spot for me than anything.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: I’m fine with some one-offs or even a mini-stack, but I don’t love the idea of stacking against Wheeler.

PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins

4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper

GPP Note: Same thing here, Morton has been good at limiting damage over the past few seasons.

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St. Louis Cardinals (-103) @ Cincinnati Reds (-105)

Implied Run Totals: 

Cardinals – 4.5 IRT

Reds – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

This game has the highest implied run total of the 3 o’clock afternoon games so we should be able to find some pieces we like from both sides here. Wainwright was really pretty solid last season coming in around a 3.15 ERA. There’s nothing that really jumps off the page for me from the Reds, Joey Votto does have some BvP here as he has four home runs off Wainwright in his career but how much do you really want to roster Joey Votto? The Cardinals opened the season with a crooked number on Opening Day and have a chance to do it again here. Mahle has a big strikeout rate but he’s susceptible to some hard contact as well.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson

GPP Note: I don’t hate chasing that Opening Day performance from this team.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez

GPP Note: Similar story here, nothing jumps off the page but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hung a crooked number here.

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Houston Astros (-118) @ Oakland Athletics (+109)

Implied Run Totals:

Astros – 4.5 IRT

Athletics – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

As I’m writing this the Astors are putting up some good runs on the A’s on Friday night. They get a matchup with Cole Irvin in this one, he hasn’t had a whole lot of big-league time in his career which is why his price is where it is, but in a small sample size, he gave up a 53% hard contact rate in 2020. That should raise some red flags on him and get you on this Astros offense. As far as the A’s go, Lance McCullers is a solid major league pitcher. He can be prone to giving up the big inning or two which will kill some of his outings, so if you’re looking for a low-owned GPP flyer, the A’s make some sense, but nothing I would go all that crazy on.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa

GPP Note: I like going right back to the Astros in this one.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha

GPP Note: Pretty deep GPP stack or mini-stack option, I think McCullers is a really solid pitcher.

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Late Games:

Minnesota Twins (+120) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-131)

Implied Run Totals:

Twins – 3.6 IRT

Brewers  – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Corbin Burnes at the beginning of the article, but he’s such a high strikeout guy that I want a lot of exposure to him, especially at this price tag. The Twins are a good home run hitting team, but even a home run or two won’t kill Burnes here as long as the strikeouts are there on him. If you’re playing a short slate and one to take a one-off against him to make your lineup different, I’m okay with that. I don’t hate Berrios on the other side as well, he had a 25% strikeout rate last season and this Brewers lineup still has a good amount of strikeouts in it. You can say the same thing with the Brewers though, there are some nice bats you can get if you want to go with a little mini-stack.

MIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver

GPP Note: It’s not the greatest spot for the Twins but I do think they provide upside due to the park factor at low ownership.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Lorenzo Cain, Kolten Wong

GPP Note: Pretty much just one-offs here from the Brewers, it may be tough for them to string together good AB’s against Castillo.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-248) @ Colorado Rockies (+222)

Implied Run Totals:

Dodgers – 7.5 IRT

Rockies – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

Back to Coors! We saw 17 runs in this one last night and should be a popular spot again here, especially from the Dodgers side. There’s some nice BvP from the Dodgers against Jon Gray as well. Corey Seager is 11-17 lifetime against Gray with an ISO over 0.400, Muncy also brings a big ISO into Coors in this matchup as well… they’ll be the top stack on the late slate yet again here. As far as the Rockies go, I never love targeting batters against Walker Buehler due to how good of a pitcher he is, but anything goes in Coors, so a full stack is in play here but I’ll probably be more on a mini-stack.

LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux

GPP Note: They’re the top stack on the slate if you can afford them.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Garrett Hampson, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: I like getting to the Rockies as a GPP pivot off the Dodgers and still taking advantage of the park factor, it is a tough matchup against Buehler however.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+189) @ San Diego Padres (-208)

Implied Run Totals:

Diamondbacks – 3.5 IRT

Padres – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres here in a great matchup against the light-hitting Dbacks. He had a 33.1% strikeout rate last season which makes him a pretty solid option here, that being said if you’re between him and Burnes, why not just take the higher upside at a lower price tag? The Padres are going to grade out as one of the top stacks on this slate yet again due to the matchup with lefty Caleb Smith. This lineup crushes lefties as a whole, particularly, Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers. Go ahead and fire up the Padres again… one day maybe the sites will price up guys like Tommy Pham and Jurickson Profar, hell even Victor Caratini.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: I don’t hate mini-stacking the lefties for some leverage in MME.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers, Tommy Pham, Manny Machado

4-star plays: Victor Caratini

GPP Note: Solid stack all around if you can find the salary for those high-end pieces, but there are some salary savers scattered throughout this lineup in guys like Pham, Profar, and Caratini.

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Chicago White Sox (-121) @ Los Angeles Angels (+112)

Implied Run Totals:

White Sox – 4.7 IRT

Angels – 4.4 IRT

Rundown:

Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will square off in this one. The White Sox were my top stack of the day yesterday and they went out and put up 12 runs, safe to say that one worked out. I’ll go right back to them in this spot. Alex Cobb gave up a 40.5% hard contact rate on the season last year and this Angels ballpark doesn’t suppress offense like many think it does. I think you can get to Lynn here as a pitching option as well, he had nearly a 26% strikeout rate last season, but as always, the big obstacle in the Angels lineup will be getting past Rendon and Trout.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: Cobb isn’t a very good pitcher, I’ll load up on the Sox here. Vaughn makes the stack pretty easy to work with at near min price on both sites.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton

GPP Note: Mike Trout is always in play, but it’s an expensive mini-stack if you add any of Upton/Rendon/or Ohtani with him.

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San Francisco Giants (-114) @ Seattle Mariners (+105)

Implied Run Totals:

Giants – 4.4 IRT

Mariners – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll round the day of baseball off with a matchup between Logan Webb and Chris Flexen of the Mariners. Webb comes into the season as a favorite to break out this season so it will be interesting to see what his ownership comes in as in a good matchup with a pretty weak Mariners lineup. I do think you can get to him here though, it is a nice matchup for him. I stacked up the Giants in a few spots last night and I think you can go back to them here, I do prefer them against a lefty but I’ll settle for an average righty at best.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt

GPP Note: I’m probably more likely to go with a mini-stack as my secondary to one of the Padres, White Sox, or Dodgers.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Ty France

GPP Note: Same deal here, I’ll have some interest in Logan Webb, so not a team I want to go too hard on.

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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Boston Red Sox: As I mentioned in their write-up, the Red Sox should be able to handle Matt Harvey pretty easily in this one. Not only is it a great spot as a whole for the Sox, but I love their home run upside in this one. Harvey allowed a 54% hard contact rate last season to go along with a 37.5% HR/FB rate which is extremely high. With an implied run total of 5.8, it’s no surprise that Boston makes my top stack of the main slate.
2. Chicago Cubs: This spot may change depending on what our Weather Station looks like in the morning, but I’m going to play the wind at Wrigley for the time being. Right now, it looks like the wind will be blowing out to dead center at around 15 mph which is a pretty sizeable boost for hitters here. Particularly against Tyler Anderson who boasts a slate-low 28.5% ground ball rate. Meaning, the Cubs have a good chance at lifting the ball into the air in this one, which can turn into DFS gold in these Wrigley wind games. A lot of times those fly balls turn into home runs when that wind gets behind the ball. 
3. New York Yankees: Another implied total of over five runs with the Yankees against Ross Stripling in Yankee Stadium. I touched on this when I broke them down, but I love some of the cheap options in this stack that it doesn’t make it all that expensive. With guys like Aaron Hicks in the middle of the lineup and Jay Bruce at the bottom of the lineup for a wrap-around stack, it’s really a pretty inexpensive stack in relation to their upside.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Rafael Devers (DK – $5.6k; FD – $3.6k)

Let’s go with a guy in my top stack of the main slate! Devers gets a great matchup here with Matt Harvey who allowed a 54% hard contact rate last season. Devers mashed righties last year as well with a 0.521 SLG  to go along with his 0.253 ISO. If for some reason he’s not able to take Harvey deep, there isn’t much help behind him as the Orioles bullpen comes in as one of the worst in the league carrying over from 2020. Devers has massive power and this matchup is one he should be able to take advantage of. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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