Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/30:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Robbie Ray
- Nathan Eovaldi
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-140)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Brady Singer started the season out extremely rough but he has bounced back over his last couple of starts, with one of them being against Toronto. Pineda has been really solid but not amazing so far this season. He is coming off of his worst start of the season and has now given up 2 HRs in 2 of his 4 starts. I worry about his upside here as he’s generally been a reverse splits guy and this KC team has seen him plenty.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: The three guys above are 19 for 44 against Pineda.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: I always stack the Twins but that’s because I am a fan. If you stack, stick to the top half of this lineup.
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees (-360)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We are all about Gerrit Cole in this one. His K prop is going to be pretty high and I will be monitoring it all morning. The Tigers are not a dangerous offense so I will not be rostering any of their bats here. Can we please get the Yankees bats to wake up at this point? Skubal has struggled a bit so this seems like a plus spot for the Yankees but they keep letting us down from a stack standpoint.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – John Gant
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get this game happening prior to the main slate so we don’t have to do a ton of research. I was shocked to see the game as EVEN in Vegas and that speaks a ton to the way Brubaker has thrown the baseball this season. I much prefer the STL offense but I definitely prefer Brubaker to Gant.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-140) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Bieber is an excellent GPP option as he recently threw 9 shutout innings against this CWS team with 11 strikeouts. I will be using a mini-stack of the Indians’ offense as they have some strong BvP against Keuchel but the team isn’t necessarily strong enough to withstand a full-stack.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Ramirez and Reyes are a combined 18 for 51 with 5 HRs over the last 7 games.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team average of .319 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox (-160) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Eovaldi lines up in a GREAT spot with excellent K upside against a weak Rangers squad. I did a lot of chatting about the Red Sox on Thursday in our MLB-Talk chatroom and I think they are due for some regression but I don’t think it comes against Arihara. I think he allows too much contact to have success against this Red Sox squad.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Arihara isn’t a strong K guy and this BOS lineup has done damage when putting the ball in play.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Striking out at a 32% rate against RHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-121) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have seen some stats recently that point out how rough Yarbrough has had it as a starting pitcher. He’s actually been at his best as a follower to a single-inning opener. I was really shocked to see the night and day difference in numbers but it is something we need to keep in mind with him going forward.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Three guys above are a combined 39 for 95 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-111)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. My initial thoughts for this game are that it’s going to be all about the offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total push to 9.5 by the time the first pitch happens. I know the Cubs can strike out plenty but they have some guys who are hitting LHPs and/or Miley really well. Arrieta has some upside but the Reds have some very powerful bats, especially when getting to hit at home.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at a 29% against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Votto is 8 for 22 with 2 HRs against Arrieta in his career.
New York Mets (-145) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Phillies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Stroman has thrown the ball very well and could face a PHI squad without Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius. Both guys were recently HBPs and missed Thursday’s game. The Mets bats are going to wake up at some point and Anderson has had his troubles getting outs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Striking out at a 29% rate over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Undecided
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Striking out at a 29% rate over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Striking out at a 25% rate over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Nationals – Joe Ross
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .109 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Yadiel Hernandez
GPP Note: Striking out at a 25% rate against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels (-145) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Heaney is jumping off the page for me and my GPP builds as he’s rather cheap on DK and he has a massive K ceiling. He’s another guy that I want to monitor the K prop for on this slate. We don’t have to say much about Mike Trout as he’s just scorching hot and just continues to get on-base.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France
GPP Note: Striking out at a 29% rate against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics (-130)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Means has been really solid this season and the A’s have struggled since the end of their 13-game win streak. Fiers is making his season debut so I don’t know what to make of him other than the fact he takes on a pretty weak offense. Right now I think this game plays under and it wouldn’t shock me to see it close at 7.5.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Striking out at a 25% rate against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. There are a couple of pretty solid BvPs in this game so we could certainly see some runs. Bumgarner is coming off of an EXTREMELY impressive performance against ATL where he allowed no-hits over 7 innings, en route to a shutout win in game 2 of the doubleheader. Don’t tell major league baseball but I consider it to be a No-Hitter.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Striking out at a 24% rate against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves @ Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Guillermo Heredia, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Striking out at a 33% rate against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Striking out at a 24% rate against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-203)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Darvish is always near the top in terms of strikeout upside, on any given slate. Right now I think he falls behind the top tier for this slate due to Cole and Bieber being on this slate. Webb as looked really solid so far this season but this doesn’t feel like the best match-up for him, especially with Tatis swinging it really well.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Tauchman, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs so far in 2021.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team has 15 SBs over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – George Springer, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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