Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/28:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Carlos Rodon
- Alex Wood
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Minnesota Twins (-121) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Twins – J.A. Happ
Indians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was impressed by Logan Allen this spring but that hasn’t translated to success during the regular season yet. If the Twins offense was going to wake up, I would think today would be the day. Guys like Donaldson, Cruz, and Buxton are in prime spots to explode. Happ is coming off of a near no-hitter and gets to face a weak-ish CLE lineup, outside of Reyes and Ramirez.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: I always stack the Twins but that’s because I am a fan. If you stack, stick to the top half of this lineup.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Power gets hot and Reyes flashed massive power yesterday.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees are ice cold overall but they should wake up soon, right?
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs and mini-stacks at this point.
Kansas City Royals (-121) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Royals bats should be somewhat popular as Keller can struggle quite a bit. I just don’t know which Mitch Keller will show up so I can’t recommend using him. Minor can be decent and he gets a plus spot as the Pirates’ best hitters are left-handed at this point.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Keller has allowed an OPS of .966 to LHBs so far this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Erik Gonzalez
GPP Note: Only looking at one-offs, maybe, just maybe a mini-stack.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-213)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Rodon is in a GREAT spot to rack up Ks, as long as he has some control tonight. He has a walking issue and wasn’t very sharp in his first start after the no-hitter. Mize is the former number 1 overall pick and has flashed the talent but this match-up isn’t for him as the White Sox are swinging the bat really well of late.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Detroit is striking out 35% of the time against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: Team average of .319 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see some offense here as both SPs can be attacked. The Angels are pretty healthy finally but Rendon has struggled a bit in his return. I expect Gallo to get hot at some point and coming off of an HR last night, I think we could finally see him hit one against an RHP this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Trout is 8 for 13 over the last 4 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Gallo is 2 for 5 with an HR and a 2B against Cobb.
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Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (-160)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Glasnow is just a stud and while we saw he can give up an HR or two, he still racked up Ks to offset the bad performance. Irvin is not all that great but he gets a great spot as TB is striking out a ton against LHPs. Most of the main bats for TB are left-handed so they will have to rely on Arozarena and Brosseau in this game.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Just HR hunting with a one-off against Glasnow.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 30% rate against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We saw the Cubs explode against Ynoa recently but I think this is more of a bounceback situation for him. He’s been really impressive aside from that performance. Hendricks relies on soft contact but the problem is that ATL has hit him extremely well in their respective careers.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at a 28% rate over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: ATL is 29 for 83 with 7 HRs against Hendricks.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals (-111)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I can’t decide how to attack this game as I think both pitchers have enough to be serviceable-decent in this game but they also could each give up 5 runs and I wouldn’t be shocked. Right now, I am leaning towards relying on some of the bats in this game but more in mini-stack builds.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Brad Miller, Rhy Hoskins
GPP Note: Harper and Hoskins are 13 for 49 with 8 HRs over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .595 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Brewers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Aguilar has 4 HRs over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Jackie Bradley Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs in 2021.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets (-250)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Mets have some decent numbers against Pivetta so that’s where I will go, despite continually underachieving. I was all over the Mets yesterday and somehow they were dominated by Garrett Richards. No reason to talk about Red Sox bats against deGrom, just don’t do it.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Renfroe is 3 for 9 with 2 HRs against deGrom. I wouldn’t call him a 4-Star play but he’s an off-the-wall option.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Surprisingly just an ISO of .121 against RHPs so far in 2021.
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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-210)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros let me down against Gonzales so they probably explode tonight against Dunn, in what I would call a bit lesser of a match-up for them. I know Greinke and the Astros are big favorites but I just can’t see myself relying on Zack Greinke to throw 88 MPH gas to get K’s against Seattle.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs so far in 2021.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Striking out at just a 21% rate over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-195)
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This should be a great pitching match-up so I am just going to enjoy it for that. You can certainly go for one-offs in this game but I would rather just use the SPs in some builds, with Gray being sneaky with how the Dodgers aren’t swinging the bat.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs so far this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Striking out at a 29% rate over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-153) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Diamondbacks – Taylor Widener
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Weathers has really impressed so I think people are going to be interested in him. I will have some interest but I like the idea of an Escobar-Kelly mini-stack from the D’Backs. Widener has been really good so far this season as well and the Padres have struggled to hit for power against RHPs. With that said, the Padres are one of the more dangerous offenses in baseball.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .122 against RHPs so far this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Escobar and Kelly are a combined 15 for 32 with 6 HRs against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We just saw the Blue Jays smack up Scherzer so they shouldn’t have a problem with Fedde, right? As much as I like Matz as an SP, I kind of like the WSH bats for a sneaky GPP play (add Harrison to the guys below). Vlad Jr is just on a mission this season and he has a chance to go back-to-back monster nights as this ballpark is DEFINITELY offense friendly.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 vs RHPs so far this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This might be the low-key, best pitching match-up of the day/night. Marquez is extremely underrated as an SP, thanks to throwing in Colorado. Wood has returned from the IL and looked extremely strong and now faces a Rockies squad that just doesn’t hit with much power outside of Coors.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .095 on the road this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs so far in 2021.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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