Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/27:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Lucas Giolito
- Aaron Sanchez
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Minnesota Twins (-111) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I honestly have no idea what’s wrong with the Twins or Maeda at this point. The top half of the lineup is performing as well as nearly every other team’s in the majors but the bottom half has been atrocious and the pitching has really been bad, especially the bullpen. The Indians aren’t a very dangerous team but this park is an offensive park and LHBs should have an advantage.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: I always stack the Twins but that’s because I am a fan. If you stack, stick to the top half of this lineup.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Hernandez is 7 for 23 with 5 extra-base hits against Maeda.
New York Yankees (-172) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Maybe tonight is the night for the Yankees? They really let everybody down against the artist formerly known as Matt Harvey. Their bats have to wake up at some point and we all assumed it’d be the Orioles that allowed that to happen as I think the Yankees have hit roughly 388 HRs against the Orioles pitching staff over the last 2 seasons (give or take a few hundred, I guess).
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees are ice cold overall but they should wake up soon, right?
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs and mini-stacks at this point.
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jakob Junis
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. What a sneaky pitching match-up, in a game that has the Pirates playing. Anderson has looked good but he draws a team that has hit LHPs really well so far in 2021. Junis has added a cutter to his pitch offerings and it has made a huge difference for me.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Salvador Perez left Monday’s game with an injury.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Only looking at one-offs, maybe, just maybe a mini-stack.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-240)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a spot where Giolito should dominate a team that’s struggling MIGHTILY. I know Giolito was lit up the last time out but he’s way too good to carry that over into this game. Jose Urena is not a very good pitcher and the White Sox bats are full of power and are swinging it extremely well right now. I just wish Yermin Mercedes had his C eligibility back.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit is striking out 28% of the time against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: Team average of .315 and an ISO of .191 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Quintana
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: The trio above is 15 for 40 with 3 HRs against Folty.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Texas bats have just 5 singles in 42 ABs against Quintana.
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Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rays – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Wacha has some pretty strong reverse splits so far.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier
GPP Note: Montas seems to either dominate or get blown up. I think having a stack of the TB lineup might be a smart move.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Trevor Williams
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Monday night’s game saw a bunch of runs scored early and while it finished with 15 runs, the offenses cooled off in the 2nd half of the game. Anderson is an SP that has dominant stuff but he can get wild and walks are a bad thing against a team that relies SO much on the HR ball to put runs on the board. I can see this game being another high-scoring affair but I can also see a route to where Anderson ends up in the optimal lineup (at least on DK).
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: HR’s are a HUGE portion of this team’s offense.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: ATL had 10 hits and 7 walks in the series opener.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I ended up overweight on this game Monday night and it hurt. I will continue to pick on Carlos Martinez, expecting a big blow-up against bats like Hoskins-Harper. Eflin has really impressed me this season but as you will see below, the Cardinals put the ball in play against him.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Rhy Hoskins
GPP Note: Philly might have plenty of value in their lineup (Miller, Maton, Herrera).
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team has just 5 Ks in 56 PAs against Eflin in their careers.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Marlins – Daniel Castano
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Chisholm stole 2 bases in the 1st inning Monday night.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs in 2021.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am very interested in this game. I know that Peterson has surprised us some this season but the Red Sox can do a TON of damage to LHPs. On the other side, Richards just can’t get guys out consistently at this point. I know the Mets bats haven’t awoken just yet and you will see below, they haven’t exactly been crushing the ball against RHPs. At some point that is going to change with all the LHBs, they can roll out there.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Surprisingly just an ISO of .121 against RHPs so far in 2021.
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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-177)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Astros are getting healthy and that can be a bad thing for an LHP that has struggled this season. Altuve looked great up until he ended up on the COVID list. He returned last night and picked up right where he left off. Javier showed off his K ability last time out and that could happen again here. The issue is that he can allow some HRs as well so some SEA one-offs might make sense in our GPP pool.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs so far in 2021.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-216)
Pitchers:
Reds – Jeff Hoffman
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. When I saw CIN’s ISO against RHPs so far in 2021 I almost fell out of my chair. After I organized myself again, I realized it’s because of guys like Winker and Naquin having gone through hot stretches. Buehler isn’t some average RHP so they should struggle a bit in this one. The Dodgers should wake up a little bit as Hoffman can have some issues with the long-ball and the Dodgers can certainly hit some, even when they aren’t 100% healthy.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs so far this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs so far this season.
San Diego Padres (-157) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I will be heading to this game for some offense tonight. Everybody knows that the Padres are a dangerous offense and that Kelly just hasn’t been very good. Something that not everybody realizes is that Paddack isn’t as good as originally believed. He is going to continue to have issues with big innings due to relying on just 2 pitches.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Tatis and Hosmer are a combined 12 for 32 with 4 HRs against Kelly.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals (-135) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Blue Jays – Trent Thornton/Tommy Milone
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am going to be really frustrated here as I always want to stack TOR but it’s Scherzer. I think it’s better to look at mini-stacks against him and maybe pick up a couple of HRs that he inevitably ends up giving up (generally solo HRs). The Nationals lineup is rough without Soto anchoring it. I am interested to see how they set up their lineup with the Blue Jays starting with an RHP and then following with an LHP. With this being in the A.L., I assume Zimmerman ends up in the lineup.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .114 this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 vs RHPs so far this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-160)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Giants – Aaron Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am going to keep picking on the Rockies offense when they are on the road. Sanchez is going to end up one of my top Pt/$ options on this slate. He hasn’t flashed DFS upside but he’s been strong to begin his SF career. The top of the Giants lineup should be in a plus spot as they look to be the guys that can mash against RHPs, even in a tough ballpark for an offense.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .077 on the road this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs so far in 2021.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- San Diego Padres
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, LA Angels AND Jose Altuve, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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