Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/26:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Corbin Burnes – Burnes comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, for good reason. He comes in with a 0.37 ERA and has at least 30 DraftKings points in each start this season. The underlying numbers are insane on him going back to the start of last season with a 39.4% strikeout rate and a 28.1% hard contact rate. Even if he gives up a few home runs, those strikeout numbers are going to save him more times than not. He also gets an elite matchup with a Marlins team that is missing two of its better hitters in Starling Marte and Brian Anderson, load up on some Corbin Burnes today.
• Trevor Rogers – Burnes’ mound opponent here and has looked really good this season as well. He has at least 6 strikeouts in each game this season, and this Brewers lineup has some strikeouts in it. They also haven’t seen a lefty yet this season, so the lineup likely won’t have Travis Shaw in it to go along with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain who are still on the IL. He comes in with a 30+% strikeout rate as well, love him in the mid-range.
• Shohei Ohtani – If you’re looking for upside at a cheap price tag, Ohtani is your man. You can also stack against him which isn’t something you normally see in this part of the article, but this one could really go either way. Ohtani is going to get some strikeouts as he comes in with a 28% strikeout rate going back to last season and gets a great matchup with the Rangers. That said, he comes in with a 40% hard contact rate as well. The risk is baked into the price tag… I do like him a little more on DraftKings where he’s below $8k, but he’s serviceable on FanDuel as well, the price tag should lower his ownership.

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Early Slate:

Kansas City Royals (-105) @ Detroit Tigers (-103)

Implied Run Totals:

Royals – 4.3 IRT

Tigers – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

If you’re looking to get exposure to this game you’ll have to play the showdown slate, but it’s a battle between Brad Keller and Spencer Turnbull. If you’re looking for upside, Turnbull is your guy, his strikeout rate is 6 percentage points higher, but he’s also in the tougher matchup. Keller will get this Tigers team that will struggle this season. If you’re playing showdown I think you can jam them both in and lock those points down, but in a tournament, I don’t mind picking a pitcher and then stacking against the other one.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Ryan O’Hearn

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: The Royals would be my preferred stack in this one if you’re looking to do so.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Wilson Ramos

GPP Note: It’s not that I love Keller on the other side of this one, but this Tigers lineup just kind of sucks.

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Minnesota Twins (-122) @ Cleveland Indians (+112)

Implied Run Totals:

Twins – 4.0 IRT

Indians – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

One more island game before we get to the main slate, this one comes with a much better pitching matchup as Jose Berrios will take the mound for the Twins and face off against Zach Plesac of the Indians. Plesac has struggled in his last two starts but both came against the White Sox after opening the season really well with two starts against the Tigers. He has nearly a 25% strikeout rate and the hard contact isn’t all that high, so he’s a guy I’ll get to here. Berrios comes in with an even bigger strikeout rate in an even better matchup, so I think he’s the priority here if you can’t get to both of these guys.

MIN 5-star plays: Alex Kirilloff

4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson

GPP Note: If Kiriloff starts again he provides some much-needed salary relief and if you’re stacking a team here, the Twins would be my preference against a somewhat volatile Plesac.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: More of one-off type plays from the Indians due to how weak their lineup gets at the bottom.

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Main Slate:

New York Yankees (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles (+146)

Implied Run Totals:

Yankees – 5.1 IRT

Orioles – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Anytime Matt Harvey takes the mound I’m going to have interest in stacking against him, so this Yankees team is looking really good for me today. Harvey comes in with the highest hard contact rate allowed on the slate at 40.7% and that’s not going to turn out so well against a Yankees team that can hit ’em out with the best of ’em. I like the Yankees quite a bit here, and will likely come in as a top stack for me. Deivi Garcia gets the start for the Yankees, I think you can make a case for him on DraftKings, as he’s not in the FanDuel player pool. He carries in a 22.6% strikeout from last season and gets a solid matchup with the Orioles if you want a cheap SP2 and you don’t feel comfortable with Ohtani.

NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: I love the Yankees stack here, you should too.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays

GPP Note: The more I think about it, the more I have an interest in Deivi Garcia as my SP2.

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Oakland Athletics (-112) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+104)

Implied Run Totals:

Athletics – 4.4 IRT

Rays – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

Sean Manaea will take the mound for the A’s in this one, he’s been pretty good this season. He has a quality start in his last three games and at least 7 strikeouts in his last two. I have no issue getting to some Manaea in this one. Rich Hill will grab the start for the Rays, if you’re looking to dumpster dive at pitcher, he’s an option. Has he looked good lately? No. But, the strikeout rate is still hovering around 20% and he’s not giving up all that much hard contact, so if you’re hoping to catch lightning in a bottle on a cheap pitcher I have no issue getting to Hill in this spot.

OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha, Matt Chapman

4-star plays: Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano

GPP Note: If you’re not looking to get some Rich Hill, then I’m good with getting some A’s stacks here.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows

GPP Note: I’ll have much more interest in Manaea than the Rays offense.

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Chicago Cubs (+167) @ Atlanta Braves (-183)

Implied Run Totals:

Cubs – 3.4 IRT

Braves – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

Zach Davies will get the ball for the Cubs here and has been pretty bad to start this season. He has an ERA over 8 and hasn’t had a good start since his first outing against the Pirates. He’s the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel, but man this is a scary spot. This Braves offense is going to wake up sooner or later, and a matchup with Zach Davies when he’s not hitting his spots may be the time. I think I’ll have a good amount of interest in a Braves stack here. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Braves, he brings in a 26.1% strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate as well, I think he makes a lot of sense in this spot.

CHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

GPP Note: I don’t generally like stacking against Morton, so just one-offs here for me.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson

GPP Note: I like the Braves quite a bit here, this feels like it could be a breakout series for them.

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Miami Marlins (+151) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-165)

Implied Run Totals:

Marlins – 2.9 IRT

Brewers – 3.7 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on both of these pitchers to start the article, both are in good spots and I think getting some exposure to each of them would be a good idea. Corbin Burnes would be my preferred option due to how dominant he has been this season and the matchup grades out better against a weak-hitting Marlins team. Trevor Rogers hasn’t gotten as much buzz as Burnes but he’s been good in his own right this season, so probably just the pitchers for me here and some one-off bats.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm

GPP Note: All the Burnes here, not a whole lot of interest in these Marlins bats.

MIL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Manny Pina, Keston Hiura

GPP Note: Same story here, although the Brewers have some lefty-mashers in Pina and Hiura if you’re looking for some one-offs.

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Philadelphia Phillies (-108) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+100)

Implied Run Totals: 

Phillies – 4.1 IRT

Cardinals – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Zack Wheeler will get the start for the Phillies here and isn’t the worst option if you’re looking to get a little different at pitcher. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as you may want to see for the price on him, but the hard contact is one of the better on the slate at 25% going back to the start of last season. The same can be said for Adam Wainwright who I think you can make a case for as a cheap SP option on FanDuel or an SP2 guy on DraftKings. The Phillies offense hasn’t been the greatest this season, I think he could sneak you some value here.

PHI  5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto

GPP Note: I think I would be more likely to mini-stack the Phillies and jam those big bats in rather than full-stack against Wainwright in this one.

STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson (value)

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado

GPP Note: I don’t think I’ll have a ton of Zack Wheeler, but he’s also not a guy I want to stack against all that much so probably just mini-stacks and one-offs for me.

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Los Angeles Angels (-146) @ Texas Rangers (+134)

Implied Run Totals: 

Angels – 4.7 IRT

Rangers – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Shohei Ohtani in my pitcher’s section… but man I think you can stack against him, the Rangers don’t have a huge implied run total, but I’m going to get some Rangers stacks. Ohtani has a 40% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season and he hasn’t looked all that great on the mound. I think this Rangers stack gets overlooked by the public tonight and I love taking a shot on them. The Angels will be a bit more popular but they’re a great stack as well against Jordan Lyles who doesn’t strike many guys out and this Angels lineup is legit.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, David Fletcher

GPP Note: The stack is definitely in play here, but I think I’ll have more interest in the other side of this one.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Nick Solak

GPP Note: I touched on this above, but I have a sneaky love for the Rangers here. It’s a risky stack, but the reward can be very nice. I like them quite a bit.

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Seattle Mariners (+160) @ Houston Astros (-175)

Implied Run Totals: 

Mariners – 3.9 IRT

Astros – 5.2 IRT

Rundown:

Justus Sheffield will get the ball for the Mariners, but this Astros lineup continues to get healthier, it looks like the only usual player missing from the lineup today will likely be Jose Altuve and Sheffield hasn’t been all that great this season. Due to the talent of this offense, I think you can safely fade Sheffield. Jose Urquidy will get the start for the Astros and is in a great spot against the Mariners. He hasn’t been all that great that season, but I think this is a really nice bounce-back spot for him if you want to get him at potentially low ownership.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: Probably just one-offs for me here, Urquidy hasn’t been great this season, but he’s got good stuff.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez

GPP Note: It’s tough to not like the Astros here, Sheffield has been below average to start the season.

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Colorado Rockies (+152) @ San Francisco Giants (-166)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rockies – 3.3 IRT

Giants – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

The Rockies finally get out of Coors here, and man do I like me some Anthony DeSclafani here. The FanDuel price is way too cheap on him if you’re looking for a cheap SP option, and he makes for a great SP2 option on DraftKings. The strikeout rate isn’t huge, but the Rockies offense stinks right now. Austin Gomber is interesting for the Rockies as well, he has looked pretty good over his last couple of starts and is priced way down here… two pretty nice cheap pitching options who should benefit from a big ballpark here.

COL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in DeSclafani than I will in this Rockies offense.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria

GPP Note: Same story here, I think I’ll have more interest in Gomer than this Giants offense. That said, there are some lefty mashers in this offense if you’re home run hunting.

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Cincinnati Reds (+167) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-183)

Implied Run Totals: 

Reds – 3.0 IRT

Dodgers – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

The Reds will send Tyler Mahle to the mound here, and although he’s been really good this season, this is an incredibly tough spot for him. He has struggled with left-handed hitters in his career and the Dodgers can throw the kitchen sink at him with guys like Corey Seager, Max Muncy, along with the usual big-hitting righties. Julio Urias will start for the Dodgers, he has a quality start in two of his first four starts but it seems like the Dodgers are okay with him going 6+ innings which we didn’t see last season, I think you can get to him here if you don’t have interest in chasing Burnes.

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Joey Votto

GPP Note: I probably won’t full stack the Reds here, but they’re in play for a few one-offs.

LAD  5-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Gavin Lux

GPP Note: I think you can mini-stack these lefties pretty easily and if you want to make it a full-stack throw Mookie and another guy in there and you’re cooking with gas.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. New York Yankees: I touched on this in the breakdown of this game, but any time I can stack against Matt Harvey, I’m going to. The Yankees have been a bit of a disappointment to start the season, but this is an incredible bounce-back spot for them. Harvey comes in with a 40+% hard contact rate and the park factor isn’t much different from Yankee Stadium. They come with huge home run upside which makes the stack look awesome.
2. Texas Rangers: I think we’re going off the board a bit with this one but my gut is telling me to push the chips in. I touched on Shohei Ohtani in my pitcher’s section, but the more I look at it, the more I want to stack against him. He’s giving up a 40% hard contact rate going all the way back to the start of last season. He’s struggling with walks big time right now, so if the Rangers can get some guys on base and hit a few bombs, we can laugh our way to the bank.
3. Atlanta Braves: This feels like the series that the Braves truly breakout, and who better to start it against than Zach Davies who has struggled heavily over his last three starts. This Braves lineup has some huge upside if they can get going, they’re expensive, but man it’s hard for me to ignore them in this spot.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Nate Lowe (DK – $4.2k; FD – $3.4k)

Abreu went deep for us yesterday so let’s make it two in a row with Mr. Lowe! I love the Rangers stack as a whole and he’s a big reason for it. He’s hitting righties very well to start the season with a 0.537 SLG and a 0.388 wOBA, I like him quite a bit here and has some big power upside. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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