Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/24:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Trevor Bauer
- Chris Bassitt
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New York Yankees (-111) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. What a pitching match-up on a Saturday afternoon! The reigning Cy-Young in the AL against the pitcher that a lot of people think is the 2nd best in all of baseball right now. No reason to consider bats. If you want to be different then just fade these SPs as I don’t think you need to fade them AND stack against one or the other.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Why would I want to pick on Shane Bieber?
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Take what I said above and change Shane Bieber to Gerrit Cole.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information along with the BAL starting pitcher.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Matt Olson looks absolutely LOCKED in at the plate right now.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs, if anything at all.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins (-195)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Cahill
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Minnesota won a tight one, 2-0, on Friday night as Happ looked like he turned back the clock. Happ was able to take a no-hitter into the 8th inning and Minnesota picked up two solo-HRs. Cahill isn’t as strong as Brubaker so I do expect more Twins offense in this game. Pineda is an interesting option as he’s been more of a reverse splits guy and that can come in handy against an LH-heavy Pirates lineup.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Phillip Evans
GPP Note: Only looking at one-offs, maybe, just maybe a mini-stack.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Minnesota has looked terrible but the 4 guys above are rolling at the plate.
Kansas City Royals (-115) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Singer intrigues me quite a bit against a struggling DET offense. He was excellent on the road in 2020 so he should be comfortable taking the ball in Detroit. Boyd has been strong to begin this season so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs against a team that has hit him decently well.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Merrifield is 25 for 48 against Boyd in his career.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit has a team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Solak is 10 for 25 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .138 against RHPs so far this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Biggio and Tellez are a combined 10 for 20 against Yarbrough.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: TB is struggling this season, especially against LHPs as Matz was strong against them on Friday.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-190)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Braves – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As long as Smyly is a full-go, I think he makes a ton of sense as ARI isn’t a dangerous lineup and they definitely can struggle against LHPs. The Braves should be pretty popular as this isn’t the 2015 Madison Bumgarner any longer. I would expect Acuna to be one of the highest owned players of the day, on either of the slates.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Escobar is 4 for 8 with 2 HRs against Smyly.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO AND batting average of .188 against LHPs so far this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-170) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am not sure what to do with Nola in this spot. Without it being in Coors, I would be ALL about him against this Rockies squad. The issue is that he hasn’t been strong on the road in his career so when you add in the Coors effect, you get a very volatile spot. He’s flashed so strongly this season that I think I want to give him a chance in a few lineups if the price is right.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhy Hoskins
GPP Note: Philly has a team ISO of just .123 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Tapia and Blackmon are 10 for 19 against Nola in their careers.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Wong HR’d in his return from the IL on Friday.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Nearly a 29% team K rate against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-203)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Stroman lines up in a great spot but the Nationals bats could also be relieved to not have to face deGrom again. Washington is missing a HUGE part of their lineup with Soto on the IL and the rest of the guys are struggling to begin the 2021 season. I think the Mets are starting to slowly heat up and we should see them start to score some more runs as the calendar approaches May.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Harrison
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .123 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Surprisingly just an ISO of .123 against RHPs so far in 2021.
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Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-203)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Red Sox should be pretty popular in this spot with a high team total. Eovaldi has been pretty solid to begin the 2021 season and he gets an offense that can go quiet a lot. When a team has a bunch of young hitters, learning on the job, there are going to be a ton of ups and downs (more downs).
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs so far in 2021.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs so far this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-121)
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Cardinals – John Gant
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Reds bats are hitting RHPs extremely well so far this season. Gant is a guy that I will continue to stack against as I think he’s just OK as an SP. I thought that Miley was due for some regression last game as he hadn’t been hit at all and that’s not his normal profile. This match-up feels more like the last game than his first two starts of the season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 against RHPs so far this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs in 2021.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Really shocked to see this SP match-up offering a lower game total than last night between these two teams (Darvish vs Kershaw). No desire to use many bats in this game as both SPs are in great spots. Snell gets a watered-down LAD lineup thanks to injuries and Bauer just always has massive upside.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Machado is 12 for 19 against Bauer.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: The Dodgers are hitting just .171 over the last week of action.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (DTD)
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Scott Schebler
GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs so far in 2021.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love this pitching match-up for this game and the total is lower than it was on Friday night. Gausman is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball as I think some people think he’s like the guy that was in BALT and not the guy he is now on the mound. Lopez gets it done and is just super steady and solid. I understand wanting to stack the SPs in this game or using 1 in all of your DK builds.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .099 against RHPs so far in 2021.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs so far in 2021.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Oakland Athletics
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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