Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/23:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Yu Darvish
- Sandy Alcantara
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New York Yankees (-135) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Indians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Montgomery is a guy that I think has a bright future and he flashes both K’s upside and quick inning upside. He tends to hit a wall at some point and he gives up some hard contact. Allen won the job during spring and has been decent so far but the Yankees RHBs are going to wake up really soon.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Probably more of a one-off type offense to target but maybe a mini-stack at the top.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Roberto Perez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Not going to stack CLE very much this season at all.
Oakland Athletics (-130) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a pretty low total of 9.5. We should see some offense going on in Baltimore on Friday night. The A’s are absolutely rolling right now and Jorge Lopez can have an HR issue, especially against guys like Olson. Irvin has thrown me for a loop this season so he’s going to be a dart throw GPP option as the Orioles aren’t doing much for damage.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Matt Olson looks absolutely LOCKED in at the plate right now.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs, if anything at all.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Twins – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Minnesota is struggling mightily. The thing is that they aren’t all struggling at the plate, but in the field and on the mound. Brubaker has been impressive to begin the season but I just have to side with the middle of the Twins lineup with how those boys are swinging it. Happ is going to be somebody that carries ownership but I just don’t know if he goes deep enough for us tonight.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Phillip Evans
GPP Note: Only looking at one-offs, maybe, just maybe a mini-stack.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Minnesota has looked terrible but the 3 guys above are rolling at the plate.
Kansas City Royals (-121) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Mize has really impressed me to begin the 2021 season as he wasn’t super sharp during spring and Skubal looked like he was more advanced. This is a tough spot for him as the Royals have a dangerous offense and a couple of guys that are either swinging it great or love to swing it in Detroit.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Soler has 7 HRs in 23 career games at Detroit.
DET 5-star plays: Wilson Ramos
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit has a team ISO of just .076 against LHPs so far in 2021.
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Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Solak is 10 for 25 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .138 against RHPs so far this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-153)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get a great pitching match-up as Glasnow has been ridiculously dominant so far in 2021 and Matz is showing the stuff we all thought he had in him when he was with the Mets. I have no desire to use bats in this game unless I am trying to leverage their popularity in GPPs. Even if I am leveraging, it’s only going to be with mini-stacks.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: One-offs only as Glasnow has been filthy this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: The above duo is 3 for 3 with 2 HRs against Matz.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-160)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have a couple of questions about this game. My first one is do we see a bounceback for Ynoa or is he going to show that he isn’t quite ready at the MLB level yet? The other question I have is can Weaver sustain his recent run while cutting back on the HRs against him?
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Carson Kelly is 3 for 11 with 7 walks over his last 5 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr (DTD)
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Acuna is 4 for 8 with 3 extra-base hits against Weaver.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies (-121)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. I have to dig in more tomorrow so stay tuned to my notes on-site as Velasquez will be entering the rotation for this game. Not sure how stretched out he actually is. Marquez is a very respectable SP so I am not sure how popular the Phillies bats will be. I am going to be on them because it’s Coors and the guys below have solid numbers vs Marquez. Harper is ALWAYS in play.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: The three above are 9 for 20 off of Marquez in their careers.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Daza is 7 for his last 16.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: Travis Shaw
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Milwaukee has hit 10 HRs over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-280)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get to watch deGrom throw against a struggling offense, at home. Now the HUGE question here is do the bats of the Mets actually provide run support here? They should be in a great spot with the number of LH bats that they can throw at Fedde.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Stevenson
GPP Note: No desire to pick on deGrom.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: McNeil and Conforto are a combined 8 for 14 against Fedde.
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Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get two pitchers that I love to stack against but seem to always get burned by. This is a pretty high total and it might finish as the 2nd or 3rd highest on the slate. I think it’s totally fine to stack against Kikuchi when he’s on the road, especially against an offense like the Red Sox. The Mariners, while winning games, just don’t have a scary lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Haniger and Seager are a combined 25 for 76 against Perez.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs so far this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-121) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a very sneaky SP match-up here as I believe a TON in Gray being an ace in the majors. Kim has impressed me in his short MLB career. I think we can use some mini-stacks from this game but mainly on the Reds side thanks to the way that Castellanos and Suarez have hit LHPs in their careers.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against LHPs so far this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Not actively going to attack Sonny Gray.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a re-match of the match-up from last week here. I love this SP match-up and think the bats are going to struggle RIDICULOUSLY. Darvish has the more impressive numbers against the opponent but Kershaw at home is so tough to battle against. This game probably ends 3-1 or 7-5 with a bunch of HRs as both SPs have given up HRs at various times over the last few seasons.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Machado is 6 for 21 with 2 HRs against Kershaw.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: The Dodgers are hitting just .171 over the last week of action.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We need to learn the status of Trout after he was HBP on Thursday night. If he is out of the lineup, the Angels lineup looks so weak overall. With that said, they get a much better match-up as they don’t face a high K guy like Javier. Heaney is a guy that is frustrating as he probably starts this game out strong and looking dominant and then in the 4th he hits a wall and gives up a couple of hits and then a 3-run HR to somebody like Gurriel.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (DTD)
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Gurriel is 5 for 17 with 2 HRs against Heaney in his career.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants (-121)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get another sneaky SP match-up in a great ballpark for pitching. Alcantara has really taken a step forward and now he gets a light-hitting SF squad. Wood was really strong in his season debut, against this Marlins squad. I know that both teams, especially Miami, have some sneaky good hitters that can ruin strong pitching performances but I will be using both of these pitchers quite a bit, especially on DK.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs so far in 2021.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs so far in 2021.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Oakland Athletics
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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