Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/22:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Walker Buehler – He’s pretty easily the top pitcher on a slate that doesn’t include a whole lot of great pitching. He gets a tougher matchup against the Padres, but it’s a Padres lineup that has been striking out a good deal to start the season. Buehler has just a 17.1% strikeout rate this season but he’s due for some positive regression as he hasn’t been under 27% in any season up to this point. He’s your centerpiece in cash games on this slate.
• Trevor Williams – I’ll bring up Williams here because of his price differential on the two sites. He’s $6.8k on FanDuel and a guy you can consider has a GPP pitcher if you’re stacking up one of these more expensive offenses. However, on DraftKings, he’s the third-highest priced pitcher on the slate at $8.5k. There’s not a whole lot that stands out about him, he’s got an average strikeout rate and hasn’t been all that great this season, but hasn’t been bad either. He’s just too cheap on DraftKings.
• Joey Lucchesi  – We’ll go to the other side of that Williams game and grab the Mets starter here. He’s dirt cheap on both sites and his ERA doesn’t reflect how good he’s been for DFS this season. He’s got a 28.6% strikeout rate in a short sample but has been over 20% in three of his four pro years. His hard-contact rate this season is 14.3% which will come up but had just a 20% hard-contact rate last season as well. It wasn’t a full season last year, but I think he’s got some nice upside at this price tag.

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Early Slate:

Arizona Diamondbacks (+128) @ Cincinnati Reds (-139)

Implied Run Totals:

Diamondbacks – 4.0 IRT

Reds – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll kick off the early slate with a matchup between Taylor Widener and Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman is the favored pitcher here, and people likely flock to him due to the matchup with a weaker Dbacks lineup. However, he’s giving up a 43.5% hard-hit rate on the season and not striking a whole lot of anyone out with a strikeout rate under 20%. Widener may look a little better if you look at his ERA, but he’s also giving up a 40+% hard0hit rate with a sub 20% strikeout rate. Now, you only have four pitchers to pick from on this slate, so if you’re going with anyone in this game I would slightly lean Hoffman strictly because of the matchup. The stacks are the way to go here over pitching, obviously, if I prefer Hoffman, I’ll also prefer that Reds stack. It just has more boom in it than the Dbacks have to offer.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: David Peralta, Pavin Smith, Kole Calhoun

GPP Note: I don’t hate just jamming in the lefties at the top of this order, but it gets pretty soft as you go down the lineup.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin

4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

GPP Note: The Reds would be my preferred side in this one, they just have some bigger bats that can produce some upside.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (-) @ Detroit Tigers (-)

Implied Run Totals:

Pirates – N/A IRT

Tigers – N/A IRT

Rundown:

Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates and would be my favorite pitching option on the early slate. He gets a matchup with a Tiger team that is really not that impressive from an offensive end, and that’s being generous. Mitch Keller has struggled this season, but I think he’s due for some positive regression. The strikeout rate isn’t huge at 21.1%… it is in comparison to the other pitchers on this slate though. The Tigers bats will help give that a boost as well. Speaking of strikeout rates, Jose Urena leads the slate at 25.4% on the season, but he’s also not a great pitcher, so take the good with the bad. Urena has a plus matchup as well, neither of these offenses is good at all.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran

GPP Note: The Pirates are more of a mini-stack team on this early slate.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Wilson Ramos, Akil Baddoo

GPP Note: Keller is my favorite pitcher on this early slate, so safe to say I don’t have a ton of stacking interest. But you can make your Keller lineups different by getting a one-off our two in this lineup.

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New York Yankees (-) @ Cleveland Indians (-)

Implied Run Totals:

Yankees – N/A IRT

Indians – N/A IRT

Rundown:

If you’re wanting exposure to this game you’ll have to play the showdown slates or the all-day slate on FanDuel since it’s an island game at 6:10 ET. It should be a pretty good pitching matchup between Domingo German and Aaron Civale though. So, if you’re playing the showdown slate, I would try and jam these pitchers into your lineups and then fill in with one-offs. There are some cheaper bats in these lineups though so you can probably just jam one of the pitchers at the captain as well.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge

4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Ford, Clint Frazier

GPP Note: You’ll need some one-offs from the Yankees if you want to jam in both pitchers. You likely won’t be able to afford any of those top three guys but Ford and Frazier bring some value to the lineup if they’re in there.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Ahmed Rosario, Josh Naylor, Jake Bauers

GPP Note: Same story here except I think you can get more value here and even get yourself a mini-stack going.

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Main Slate:

Seattle Mariners (+151) @ Boston Red Sox (-164)

Implied Run Totals:

Mariners – 4.2 IRT

Red Sox – 5.4 IRT

Rundown:

Justin Dunn will take the mound for the Mariners heading into Fenway here. He went five innings in his last start and looked pretty solid against the Orioles, but this is a tougher matchup. I don’t see myself getting to him here against this Boston lineup. Nick Pivetta will get the ball for the Red Sox and hasn’t looked all that terrible this season. He had a rough go of it last time out against the White Sox, but who doesn’t. He has an ERA under 4 and has gone for at least 80 pitches in all his starts. It’s a nice matchup against a below-average Mariners lineup as well. I like getting to him as an SP2 or a mid-range SP on FanDuel.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: It’s a really cheap lineup if you want to get a little leverage stack going, I would expect Pivetta to draw some decent ownership.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

GPP Note: It’s hard not to like the Sox here, with an implied run total over 5 runs at home with the wind blowing out to right, yes please.

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New York Mets (-126) @ Chicago Cubs (+116)

Implied Run Totals:

Mets – 5.1 IRT

Cubs – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

Joey Lucchesi takes the bump for the Mets in this one, on paper it looks like a pretty solid matchup but the Cubs bats have woken up as of late. They’ve scored at least 13 runs in two of their last four games. Lucchesi has struggled already to start the season, but I think he has some positive regression coming his way. He has over a 28% strikeout rate on the season and just a 14.3% hard contact rate. Obviously, that number will come up, but his 5+ ERA doesn’t reflect these numbers. Trevor Williams on the other side of this one is somewhat interesting as well. He has at least 17 DraftKings points in two of his three starts this season. I like him quite a bit on FanDuel where he’s just $400 more than Lucchesi, he’s much more expensive on DraftKings. If you’re looking for a stack in this game, I do think it’s the Mets, although I can’t blame you if you want to ride the Cubs hot streak here.

NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Dom Smith

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso

GPP Note: I’m completely okay with a Mets stack in this one.

CHI 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant

4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: I would prefer the righties in this one but I wouldn’t leave Rizzo out of your stack, probably not Joc either.

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Los Angeles Angels (+113) @ Houston Astros (-122)

Implied Run Totals:

Angels – 4.3 IRT

Astros – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

Alex Cobb won’t have the benefit of facing that watered-down Astros lineup any longer as this Astros team starts to get some of their guys back. That said, Cobb has been really good for DFS this season. He has at least 7 strikeouts in his first two starts and as we know in DFS, strikeouts are king. He’s MUCH cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel, so if you want to get to Cobb, do it on DraftKings. Christian Javier will take the mound for the Astros, he’s coming off a great game as well where he went for 42 FanDuel points. It’s a pretty easy decision in this game for me. On DraftKings, Alex Cobb is your guy. While on FanDuel, Christian Javier is your guy and you can make a case for some Astros stacks.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh

GPP Note: Javier can definitely get himself into trouble so I don’t hate using the Angels as a low-owned leverage stack.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa

GPP Note: I think this one depends on what site your on, if you’re on FanDuel I like stacking up the Astros. However, on DraftKings, I think I’ll have enough interest in Cobb where this would just be a hedge stack for me.

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Miami Marlins (+128) @ San Francisco Giants (-139)

Implied Run Totals: 

Marlins – 4.0 IRT

Giants – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

What was already a weak Marlins lineup became weaker, as they put Starling Marte on the IL, so Aaron Sanchez catches a break here. He’s been pretty solid this season, nothing eye-popping but I think you could do worse at the price tag on both sites. Pitcher’s park in San Francisco against a bad lineup is good enough for me to have some interest. Daniel Castano gets the start for the Marlins, he’s yet to record a strikeout this season but he should get a couple here. It’s not like him to not strike anyone out, he’s kind of in the same boat as Aaron Sanchez. If you really really need a punt he’s not the worst option, but the Giants offense has been sneaky good this season.

Mia 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson

GPP Note: Just power bat one-offs for me, I’ll have a decent amount of interest in Sanchez here.

SFG 5-star plays:Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria

4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Wilmer Flores

GPP Note: I like the Giants as a stack here, they’re going to hit lefties well this season.

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San Diego Padres (+160) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-174)

Implied Run Totals: 

Padres – 3.5 IRT

Dodgers – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

On to the late-night hammer! We get one of the more exciting new rivalries in baseball as Ryan Weathers will take on Walker Buehler here. The Padres have had a tough roll of the dice having to face Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Walker Buehler all in a few day span. Buehler is pretty clearly the top pitcher on the slate, the Padres are striking out a good amount this season and he’s the only true ace on the slate, I would make him a priority for cash games. I don’t think Ryan Weathers will make it far enough into this game to draw a decision. He made it just 3.2 innings in this matchup last time out on 79 pitches, so I’ll probably stay away from him here.

SDP 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado

GPP Note: Probably just one-offs here for me, I’ll have a lot of interest in Buehler.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Will Smith

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy

GPP Note: No issue with getting to the Dodgers here, but you’ll be paying for them. They’re pretty easily the most expensive stack on the slate, outside of the middle of that Red Sox order.

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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. San Francisco Giants: I think the Giants will come in pretty low owned which gets me on them here on a short slate. It’s not often you can get a low-owned stack on a 5-game slate that you actually like, but that’s the case for the Giants here. They’re going to hit lefties well this season and are already hitting them well with a 0.416 SLG and a 0.708 OPS. They’re pretty cheap as well which allows you to jam Beuhler in there pretty easily.
2. Boston Red Sox: Real bold right? Going with the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.1. But I love the matchup for the Sox going against Justin Dunn here. The only issue with the Red Sox is they’re priced through the nose in the middle of the order. You’ll have to get crafty to make the rest of the lineup work if you’re going to jam in Buehler as well. That said, I do think they’re in the best spot on the slate and a stack that I’ll get a good deal of.
3. Houston Astros: This is generally the more traditional team that I end up stacking, I generally like to target the offenses against starting pitchers who are giving up high hard-contact rates which is Alex Cobb here. He’s going to get some ownership on this slate, so this works as a bit of a leverage stack as well. Cobb has given up at least a 40% hard contact rate in the previous two seasons including this one. The Astros have some big upside bats in their lineup as well.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Evan Longoria (DK – $4.4k; FD – $3.1k)

It’s no coincidence that the dinger of the day belongs to a player in one of my top stacks. I like this spot quite a bit for Longoria who has killed opposing lefties this season. On the year, he has a 0.686 SLG to go along with a 0.464 wOBA, it’s early yet this season but I’m going to ride the splits here. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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