Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/21:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zach Eflin
- Max Scherzer
- Jakob Junis
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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Undecided
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Probably more of a one-off type offense to target but maybe a mini-stack at the top.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Not going to stack CLE very much this season at all.
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a pretty low total of 8. Both of these pitchers are capable of putting up a strong performance in this game but I prefer Rogers due to his higher K ceiling. There is a trade-off with that K upside as the Orioles have the more powerful team in this game. I like one-offs from each team but Rojas may end up my favorite one from this game. He’s hitting LHPs extremely well and is hot right now at the plate.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs, if anything at all.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Mini-stacks at the top of the lineup, if anything at all.
Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Montas has been hitter better by RHBs so far in 2021.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: OAK bats are heating up but Maeda is strong. I think this is more of a mini-stack spot than a full-stack.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers (-130) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am a little shocked to see Detroit favored as they have been so bad against LHPs so far this season. The Pirates are sneaky for me on this slate as Moran, Frazier, Reynolds, and Gonzalez are all swinging it pretty well over the last week. I won’t go overboard on PIT stacks but I will use them more than DET bats.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Moran and Polanco are a combined 4 for 11 with 4 doubles against Fulmer.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit has a team ISO of just .069 against LHPs so far in 2021.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information as I assume we are trying to see what kind of pitch count Turnbull could be on.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: If Turnbull is a full-go, this is a tough spot for PIT.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit has hit RHPs FAR better than LHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-172)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Angels – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. As I started writing this on Tuesday night, Mike Trout HR’d to remind everybody that he’s getting it done this season. Folty has given up 5 HRs in his 16 innings so far this season and that’s a troubling trend against guys like Trout, Upton, Walsh, and potentially Ohtani. Quintana has been horrendous this season as he’s allowed 10 hits and 7 walks in just 5 innings of action. His numbers should get better but those are numbers we want to target with some bats.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Texas has some sneaky bats against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Folty keeps giving up HRs and Trout is waiting.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Royals – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Roster is 11 for 34 against Junis.
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: KC has hit LHPs pretty well to begin this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (-121)
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these SPs have had success against the opposing roster. I think Anderson intrigues me more than Kluber does, despite Kluber and the Yankees being the favorites. Anderson has a young, electric arm that could force the Yankees to continue to struggle. Kluber needs to bounce back but he just isn’t going to go very deep in a start at this point.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Acuna Jr’s status is extremely important.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees power bats have to wake up someday, but not sure that it’s today.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (-121)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was all about PHI on Tuesday night and they started hot but the Giants finished the game hotter. This game could be one that goes over the total despite my likes of each SP. The Philadelphia lineup should be at full strength, minus Segura after they rested a couple of bats on Tuesday night.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Mini-stacks against Eflin but I plan on using some Eflin shares as well.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: The Phillies nearly broke out on Tuesday so let’s ride that into a Wednesday but I like DeSclafani more than Webb.
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Davies has been really bad this year.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Peterson has given up 3 HRs in 10 innings so far this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (-172)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Soto going on the IL is going to take some of the shine off of the Nationals stacks. Martinez has given up 13 runs in 15 innings so far in 2021. Those numbers are ones that I want to attack with bats but the Nationals have been pretty cold overall. Right-handed bats have put up more power numbers against Martinez this season than the left-handed bats have. Scherzer is just a beast and even though he’s getting up there in age, he’s still not somebody I am going out of my way to pick hitters against.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Only one-off HR hunting from STL against Scherzer.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: The Nationals might be the sneaky stack as they have let us down so far this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Undecided
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information and the TOR pitcher.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Toronto is going to wake up with a monster game at some point and facing Richards might be the time!
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Bogaerts and Martinez might be the hottest hitting combination in baseball right now.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (-177)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kelly has given up 4 HRs in 16 innings and has allowed hitters from both sides of the plate to hit him hard in 2021. Mahle has allowed just 1 hit in 25 ABs to LHBs so far in 2021 as he has been hit FAR harder by the RHBs. This park is definitely built for hitting but I do like Mahle as an SP option as the Diamondbacks lineup should be pretty LH heavy.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Only considering guys as one-offs.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: The Reds should hit a couple of HRs in this one with the hard contact that Kelly is allowing.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (-195)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Lamet will be making his season debut after throwing 75 pitches in a simulated game last week. He went on the IL last September with a strain in his elbow (the worrisome strain). When he is on, he is an exciting arm with impressive K upside. I know he threw 75 pitches in that outing but I would guess that SD takes it a bit easy on him here and sticks around the 70 pitch mark early in the season. The Padres bats have to heat up together at some point as we wait for a breakout from Tatis.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Not looking to pick on Lamet.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Houser is a completely different pitcher than Woodruff and Burnes.
Houston Astros (-145) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get a Coors game during the day so that should help the hitting some, even if it is colder yet. Jose Urquidy has been picking up the strikeouts but he’s still allowing some runs this season. I don’t think very highly of the COL offense as it currently sits but Coors can mask lineup issues. Gomber has had control issues so far with the Rockies as he has 13 walks in 15.1 innings so far.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: The Astros should have a shot at putting up some runs if they are patient at the plate.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 at home so far this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays: I know that the Blue Jays aren’t exactly rolling at the plate but Richards should find a way to cure that. As you can tell, I am not a huge fan of Richards at all but he has been trending better after his terrible opening start. With that said, this is a spot where TOR could get rolling as the runs seem to be popping at Fenway.
- Boston Red Sox: If the Blue Jays go with Kay as the long man, I think the Red Sox are in a great spot. It’s not because I think Kay is terrible, but it is because I think that the Red Sox are elite against LHPs or should be elite this season with the lineup they put out there.
- Cincinnati Reds: Merrill Kelly is allowing all sorts of contact and HRs to begin the season. This ballpark is built for offense and the Reds have averaged 7.7 runs per game at home through 10 games this season. They have hit 19 HRs with 19 2Bs in those 10 games at home.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Walsh, LAA (I wanted to say M.Trout but that’s too easy)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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