Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/20:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- Julio Urias
- Corbin Burnes
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Chicago White Sox (-115) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This going to be exciting to watch as Rodon gets to take on the team that he no-hit last week. I wonder what kind of prop bets will be out there about what inning or who will get the first hit of the game for CLE. Can we see somebody throw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts? The odds are so far against it as MLB hitters are so good at making adjustments for the second time they see an SP in a season, especially when it’s less than a week apart.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Probably more of a one-off type offense to target but maybe a mini-stack at the top.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Might have to get a few stacks in case the CLE bats wake up here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Let’s be honest, this game shouldn’t end up close with how terrible Gonzales has been this season. The Dodgers aren’t overly potent against LHPs so far this season but they do have capable hitters against LHPs plus guys like Turner and Taylor who are destroying them this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Justin Turner seems like he’s completely locked in at the plate.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Only looking at some one-offs as the team is hitting just .207 against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins (-125)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Marlins – Nick Neidert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a pretty low total of 8. You won’t find me looking to use Harvey as I just can’t shake what he has become in comparison to what he was. With that said, I don’t think MIA offers many bats to use against him, at least for stacking purposes. Neidert has a strong arm and is a raw pitching prospect who is kind of holding his own so far. I am interested in him here as a dart GPP option but I also will use a couple of the LHBs against him.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs of the LHBs for the Orioles.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Mini-stacks at the top of the lineup, if anything at all.
Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics (-121) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Matt Shoemaker
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Just remember that this game is 7 innings so that’s why we see such a low total. I am always interested in the Twins when they are facing an LHP. On the other side, I am interested in teams against Shoemaker, even though he has done decently well to begin this season. He’s the kind of pitcher that can roll through a few innings and look unhittable only to hit a wall and start giving up LOUD contact all over the place.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Byron Buxton (DTD), Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Twins are hitting .274 against LHPs so far this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Chapman and Moreland are a combined 9 for 19 against Shoemaker.
Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information for this game.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Remember that these games are 7 inning contests.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Top-half of the A’s lineup is always in play for me.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers (-130)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am a little shocked to see Detroit favored as they have been so bad against LHPs so far this season. The Pirates are sneaky for me on this slate as Moran, Frazier, Reynolds, and Gonzalez are all swinging it pretty well over the last week. I won’t go overboard on PIT stacks but I will use them more than DET bats.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Moran and Polanco are a combined 4 for 11 with 4 doubles against Fulmer.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Detroit has a team ISO of just .069 against LHPs so far in 2021.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-210)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am going to double-down on the Angels Tuesday night as I feel like they should explode against TEX pitching at some point. The reason I love stacking the Angels is we can narrow down the explosive performances pretty easily as the top half of the lineup handles SO much of the team’s production.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Texas is up 6-0 against LAA as I write this which is a shocker since Bundy was extremely popular. I won’t be chasing those runs against Ohtani.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: We need to learn what the sites are going to allow with Ohtani as I expect him to be hitting 2nd as the SP.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rays – Rich Hill
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think this total is a product of the extremely cold weather in KC. My first glance this morning is that it ends up with game time temps around 40 degrees. Hill is a pitcher that tricks batters for a few innings before they start to pick things up. I am not sure that he’s going to have the movement on his curveball in such cold temps so it could lead to some hard contact.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Keller was absolutely elite at home in 2020 but he’s struggled in 2021.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: KC has hit LHPs pretty well to begin this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (-121)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We need to see what kind of lineup the Braves are going to run out there and I am really curious as to what the New York weather will be like. Both teams have guys that have seen the opposing SP a decent number of times with the Yankees having faced Morton plenty. The Yankees bats are pretty cold while the Braves come in swinging it extremely well.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Acuna Jr’s status is extremely important.
NYY 5-star plays: Brett Gardner
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees have seen Morton plenty of times and the guys above have hit him really well.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (-153)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know Webb is a name that’s been near the top of the Giants prospect lists for a while but he hasn’t shown great ability at the MLB level. Wheeler has really become something with the Phillies and this is a great spot but I am really shocked that he is “only” a -153 favorite. My early look has me believing that Harper will be a core option for me.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Just one-offs against Wheeler, if any at all.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura
GPP Note: This might be the spot for the Phillies to explode.
New York Mets (-125) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
This game has a total of 7.5. That total tells me a lot here, considering we don’t have elite SPs on the mound. We are looking at wind blowing in and game-time temps in the mid-30s. That’s some HORRENDOUS hitting weather and the ball should have trouble flying. Now with that said, MLB hitters are capable of hitting HRs in almost any weather at all.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Great BvP on the Mets side in this game.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Well the Cubs certainly woke up on Saturday, hitting 6 HRs. The weather is going to be key here.
St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (-125)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. St Louis hitters are hitting .302 with an ISO of .221 against LHPs so far in 2021. Patrick Corbin has looked dreadful to begin his 2021 season. Those two things line up to create a very strong spot for stacks. The big issue though is that is going to make them extremely chalky.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The Cardinals just smacked Ross and now they get the struggling Corbin. Sounds like a very popular stack.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: The Nationals might be the sneaky stack as they have some strong BvP against Wainwright.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (-121)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. I really like both of these SPs but I also have a ton of respect for these offenses. The Red Sox just dominated Lucas Giolito on Monday and while Ryu is a much different kind of SP, the Red Sox have shown that hot hitting lasts multiple games for them this season. Toronto hasn’t really busted out as they aren’t totally healthy but once they get started, they may get hot for weeks.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Toronto is going to wake up with a monster game at some point, just not sure that it’s tonight.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Bogaerts and Martinez are a combined 28 for 70 at home this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Castillo has had one dominant start sandwiched by two terrible starts to begin his 2021 season. He gets a very plus match-up but it does come in a hitters’ park. Gallen made his season debut last week and looked strong but seemed to hit a wall towards the end of his outing. I like his stuff a TON but the Reds do have a team ISO of .204 against RHPs so far this season. I normally like stacking games in this park but I believe this one might be more of a one-off/mini-stack spot in our GPP builds.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Only considering guys as one-offs, despite Castillo struggling a bit this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: I am a huge Gallen so mostly going to use mini-stacks of CIN in their home park.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (-115)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am a little shocked to see Paddack and the Padres favored here as Burnes has been so good. Monday night’s game is now 3-1 MIL after Tyrone Taylor just HR’d off of Pomeranz. Woodruff and Musgrove fired a pretty impressive duel with Musgrove racking up the Ks.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Mostly mini-stacks for me but Paddack can give up some HRs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Caratini
GPP Note: Burnes has been so good that I won’t be attacking him but Caratini is 2 for 4 with an HR against him.
Houston Astros (-121) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. This is another place that is going to approach about 40 degrees at game time but the difference here is that the air is expected to be extremely light (always is, isn’t it?) so the offenses should be able to do SOME damage. I think the biggest question mark is what kind of lineup will the Astros run out there? If it’s weak enough, I could see this game playing under with Jon Gray doing enough to be decent on this slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: The Astros are down a few guys but we need an update on when they can return.
COL 5-star plays: Garrett Hampson
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 at home so far this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies: Logan Webb doesn’t scare me and this ballpark can be very good for offense, especially when you have Bryce Harper swinging the bat extremely well. There’s plenty of danger in this PHI lineup and I want to be above the field.
- Washington Nationals: This is a spot where I am being a little bold in that I think St Louis is one of the chalkiest stacks on the slate against a struggling Corbin. I am looking at playing the %s a bit and going with the Nationals side at home. Juan Soto is due for an Acuna-type explosion soon.
- Houston Astros: I actually think Houston could be overlooked if the COVID situation remains and we get a weaker-looking lineup. I am interested in seeing what the projected ownership is on their stack so make sure to check out our Leverage Stacks tool on site! We know that the Astros have a couple of main bats who are fine so I will be all on the Tucker-Brantley-Gurriel trio.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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