Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/19:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Joe Musgrove – It’s hard not to like Musgrove here. This is a really watered-down Brewers lineup with Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Lorenzo Cain all injured and he’s carrying a massive 35.8% strikeout rate into this game. You can look at making him your SP1 on both DraftKings and FanDuel here as I think he has a nice shot at the quality start bonus over on FanDuel.
• Jack Flaherty – Let’s hit the mid-range with Mr. Flaherty. He comes into this one as a -115 favorite over the Nationals who have an implied run total under 4 here. Flaherty got hit around pretty well in his first start of the season but has since settled down and gone at least 5 innings in each game. The thing I love with him is the price tag, he just feels underpriced on both sites and the Nationals lineup isn’t one that scares me. He makes for a nice SP1 option or even a high-end SP2 on DraftKings.
• Danny Duffy  – I don’t think Duffy is a guy you want to go with as your cash game guy on FanDuel but he’s certainly in play for tournaments, and I do think you can get to him in cash as your SP2 on DraftKings. He has at least 22.1 DraftKings points in each of his first two starts this season and gets a matchup with a Rays team that doesn’t scare me all that much. You haven’t played MLB DFS long enough if Duffy hasn’t burned you in some way or another, but I do like this spot at his current price tag in today’s matchup.

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Early Slate:

Chicago White Sox (-110) @ Boston Red Sox (+102)

Implied Run Totals:

White Sox – 4.1 IRT

Red Sox – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

This is an island early game so if you’re wanting some exposure here you’ll have to play the showdown slates. It should be a nice pitching matchup as the White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the mound to face off against Nathan Eovaldi who has started the season looking pretty good. Giolito has a 38.2% strikeout rate in 2021 so far, it’s a pretty short sample size in just 17.2 innings, but it’s hard to ignore knowing he has the stuff. The strikeout rate isn’t quite as high on Eovaldi, but he has a hard-hit rate of just 29.8% on the season. I’m not all that thrilled to stack up either side of this one, so on a showdown slate stack up both the pitchers if you can. On FanDuel, I would just play the splits and hope for the best. The Red Sox bullpen has outproduced their talent this season so I’m more likely to stack the Chicago side of this one.

CHW 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Nick Madrigal, Andrew Vaughn

GPP Note: I don’t love either of these stacks in the showdown slate, but you have to play some sort of bats. I like taking a shot on the cheap guys at the bottom of the order with Vaughn and Madrigal so you can jam in both these pitchers.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez

GPP Note: Same thing here, I’m going to play the splits and hope for the best, I would prefer the White Sox side of things if you made me pick.

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Main Slate:

St. Louis Cardinals (-116) @ Washington Nationals (+107)

Implied Run Totals:

Cardinals– 4.2 IRT

Nationals – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

Jack Flaherty will take the mound for the Cardinals, he’s bounced back a bit since his rough first outing. He has at least 36 FanDuel points in his past two starts and should have a decent shot at a quality start here. Joe Ross will be his mound opponent here, he’s yet to give up an earned run this season and is limiting hard contact pretty well. I don’t think this is a game where you want to stack bats, but if you were to go with one side I think it would be the Cardinals in hope that those numbers that Ross is putting up regress back to his career norm.

STL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Probably more of a mini-stack team, but I don’t have a problem getting here if Ross ends up being more owned than he should be.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell

GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me, Flaherty seems to have found a groove over his past couple of starts.

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San Francisco Giants (-107) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-101)

Implied Run Totals:

Giants – 4.3 IRT

Phillies – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

A matchup of two journey-man here as Chase Anderson and Kevin Gausman will duke it out. Neither of these guys are guys I really have a whole lot of interest in on either site, if you’re desperate I think you can make a case for Kevin Gausman as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, but even that feels like it’s pushing it against this Phillies offense. Both of them have limited hard contact pretty well to start the season and Anderson gets a nice matchup with a below-average Giants offense, but the strikeout numbers just aren’t there. I would have interest in stack up the Phillies here, but more for tournaments than anything.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: Probably just one-offs here for me, even though Chase Anderson isn’t all that great, he’s limiting hard contact enough for me to stay away a bit.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm

GPP Note: The Phillies are a team I’ll have some interest in, Gausman has been good this season, but he’s been known to be good for a blow-up start here and there in his career, and this Phillies stack works well with pricing. Harper and Realmuto are pretty expensive but you can round the stack off with cheap bats like Bohm and McCutchen to make it fit better.

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Tampa Bay Rays (+105) @ Kansas City Royals (-114)

Implied Run Totals:

Rays – 4.2 IRT

Royals – 4.4 IRT

Rundown:

Josh Fleming has started the season pretty well for the Rays, however, his strikeout stuff worries me. I don’t think there’s much of a reason to get to him here, even in the minors he has never topped a 20% k rate in a season, so probably not a guy I’ll love in terms of DFS production. Danny Duffy has been really good this season on the other side of this one for the Royals. He has at least 22.1 DraftKings points in each of his starts this season. I don’t love the matchup enough to go with him on FanDuel as your lone pitcher, but on DraftKings, I think you can make a case for him as your SP2.

TBR 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena

4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Mik Brosseau, Yandy Diaz

GPP Note: Duffy can give up a big inning here and there but I think this offense is just weak enough to make a case for Duffy on DraftKings.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler

GPP Note: I might have some interest in a full Royals stack here, but a mini-stack is in play at the very least.

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Texas Rangers (+177) @ Los Angeles Angels (-195)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rangers – 3.8 IRT

Angels – 5.3 IRT

Rundown:

FanDuel and DraftKings are thinking the Angels are going to start different pitchers here. FanDuel has Jose Quintana listed as the probable starter, while DraftKings has Dylan Bundy. I would lean to think it’s Bundy here but keep an eye out for confirmation. Everything I’m seeing is leading Bundy’s way so I’ll operate under the assumption he’s the guy here. He’s the type of guy you can get to on both sites, he has legit quality start potential here and a ton of strikeout upside against a terrible Rangers offense. Bundy has a 28.6% strikeout rate on the season and is a guy I’ll like in all formats in this matchup. He should also get plenty of run support from the Angels offense against Kohei Ariahara here. Ariahara had a nice outing last time out against the Rays but struggled in his first two outings. The implied run total and spread makes me love the spot even more for the Angels, they can be an expensive stack with guys like Trout and Ohtani in there but the bottom of this lineup should save us enough money to make it happen.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe

GPP Note: Just power bat one-offs for me, I’ll have a decent amount of interest in Bundy here.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, David Fletcher

GPP Note: I like the Angels a good deal here, they’ll likely make my top stacks list at the end of the article.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-192) @ Seattle Mariners (+175)

Implied Run Totals: 

Dodgers – 4.7 IRT

Mariners – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

Dustin May should gain a lot of ownership on both sites due to the matchup with the Mariners here. That being said, I think you can make a case to fade him on FanDuel because of the risk he doesn’t get the quality start. Dave Roberts is known for pulling his pitchers pretty early especially his young guys. So yes, it’s a good spot, but I think he really needs to go six for you to love the outcome here. Justus Sheffield will take the mound for the Mariners, I think you can stack against him with this Dodgers team pretty easily. He struggled in his first start giving up 6 runs, 4 earned to go along with 2 walks against the White Sox. The Dodgers will make him pay if that is the case again here.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner

4-star plays: Will Smith, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy

GPP Note: The Dodgers will be a top stack for me on this slate full of offenses that I don’t exactly love.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager

GPP Note: I like Dustin May a good deal here, even though I think you can get off of him on FanDuel, I just don’t see a reason to stack up the Mariners in this one.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+129) @ San Diego Padres (-140)

Implied Run Totals: 

Brewers – 3.2 IRT

Padres – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

This game comes in with the lowest implied run total on the slate by a pretty big margin due to the pitchers we’ll see here. Brandon Woodruff will get the start for the Brewers and has been lights out over his past two games. The Padres offense can be scary but that 29.2% k rate that Woodruff carries will allow him to get away with a few mistakes, I like him as a SP on both sites. Then Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Padres, he struggled a bit in his revenge game against the Pirates last night and he may go a bit over-owned due to the no-hitter last week, but it’s a good matchup regardless. He has an insane 35.8% strikeout rate this season and this Brewers lineup is no stranger to striking out especially with Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Lorenzo Cain all out of the lineup.

MIL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Keston Hiura, Jackie Bradley Jr.

GPP Note: I don’t have a whole lot of interest in the Brewers as a full-stack, but I think you can make a case for a mini-stack here. It will be unowned and helps you pay down from a potentially expensive main stack.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.

4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham

GPP Note: Same deal here for the Padres, I think a mini-stack is more where I’ll go over a full stack against Woody.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Los Angeles Angels: Real bold right? Going with the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.3. But I love the matchup for the Angels against Kohei Arihara here, it’s a short sample since the season is still young, but he’s giving up a 41.7% hard contact rate on the season and the Angels will make him pay for that. The thing I love with the Angels is there are ways to make the stack cheaper outside of the three staples in Ohtani, Trout, and Walsh. If you round that stack out with any combo of David Fletcher, Justin Upton, or Jose Rojas you should have no issue getting a pitcher you’re comfortable with.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Let’s go to the other Los Angeles team here in a matchup against Justus Sheffield. Sheffield struggled in his first appearance this season giving up 6 runs to the White Sox while giving up 8 hits and 2 walks. The hard contact rate is a bit lower than I’d like it, but there aren’t a ton of stacks that jump out at me on this short slate. The Dodgers will have no issue creating their own hard contact either. It’s an expensive stack if you’re going with the main guys, but they’re so deep, you’re likely to see a few cheap value options at the bottom of the order.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: I touched on Gausman a bit in the breakdown of this game and said you could make a case for some interest on him, and you can, but I like the Phillies stack more than I’ll end up liking Gausman here. As I mentioned, there aren’t a ton of obvious stacking spots here so I like getting a little crazy with the Phillies. They have some elite bats and I’m taking a chance and hoping we see Gausman regress to those numbers we saw in 2019-2020 where he was around a 40% hard contact rate.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Walsh (DK – $5.1k; FD – $3.5k)

I’m going right back to Jared Walsh here, I picked him in this spot last week and it didn’t turn out, he still had a nice DFS day, but just no homer. I think he gets ahold of one here against Kohei Ariahara who is giving up a pretty big hard contact rate. Not to mention he’s slugging 0.815 against righties to go along with a 0.444 ISO on the season. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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