Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/14:
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Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Lance McCullers Jr.
- Dustin May
- Joe Musgrove
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Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-147) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 6. Remember that these two games will be 7 inning contests.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Never looking to fully stack against Maeda but mini-stacks make sense.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Is Buxton the hottest hitter in baseball right now?
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-135) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6. Remember that these two games will be 7 inning contests.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: This is an interesting spot as Berrios has been spectacular but this is the toughest offense he’s faced this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz (DTD)
GPP Note: I think the Twins are sneaky in game 2 against an LHP.
San Diego Padres (-216) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Can Musgrove go back-to-back with his no-hit stuff? I don’t think we ever see somebody throw them back-to-back but he couldn’t ask for a much better match-up. He knows this PIT squad pretty well having been traded from PIT to SD in the offseason. Anderson has flashed some K upside so far but he’s not overly strong so we should be using bats against him.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Myers left Tuesday’s game with an injury so his status is really important.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: I just don’t see much of a reason to go all that heavy on the Pirates in a tough matchup against one of the top pitchers on the day.
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Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I definitely see this game going over that total but I wouldn’t be shocked by it going under because of the weak offenses. We get two SPs that we can attack with stacks as they both allow plenty of baserunners. I would rather stack the Orioles if I had to choose one or the other but the Mariners could be sneaky here.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Jose Marmolejos
4-star plays: Taylor Trammell, Ty France
GPP Note: SEA isn’t very good but this might be a spot where they show a little bit. Probably better as a mini-stack but why not have a share or two of a full-stack in a large field GPP.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Dunn hasn’t been bad from an avg against standpoint but he walks so many batters that big innings can happen very quickly.
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New York Yankees (-130) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get potent offenses in a park that is going to rival Coors field in terms of offense. Both SPs have been knocked around recently and that trend should continue here. I think most people are going to prefer the Yankees and while I can’t fault them, I think I will find myself on TOR bats slightly more.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: The Yankees should end up with the highest team implied run total on the day.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Imagine if this TOR lineup was completely healthy!
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-177)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rays – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I haven’t seen an official starter posted for TB but I am hearing that it could be Fleming. Not a game that I plan to target much for bats other than some one-offs and mini-stacks. Arihara doesn’t put up many strikeouts, at least he hasn’t at the MLB level yet.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Mostly one-offs but yesterday this stack came through.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: This could be my sneaky stack of the slate.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There is some solid BvP in this game but the one big thing is that most of the Mets BvP are just singles while the Phillies BvP is power-based. I am a big fan of Wheeler and I do think he bounces back after a rough start against Atlanta. The Mets bats should wake up at some point, shouldn’t they?
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: PHI has a team ISO of .520 against Peterson in their careers.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Generally going to use Mets bats as one-offs against Wheeler.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-216)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Nick Neidert
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Neidert has future talent but this match-up isn’t a very good one for him. He has control issues and guys on base lead to monster Braves innings. Morton should bounce back a little bit as I think he was a great acquisition for this Atlanta squad.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: I think MIA is a sneaky mini-stack option but think they will be more popular after Tuesday night’s explosion.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Freeman has started cold but this could be a match-up for him to get hot.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We should see a pretty strong pitcher’s duel again Wednesday night. Woodruff and Mills (started for the scratched Hendricks) threw really well on Tuesday night. I like the way Burnes is throwing to begin the season and the Cubs aren’t afraid to swing and miss at the plate.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Burnes is in too great of a spot to want to use more than a one-off from the Cubs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Jackie Bradley Jr.
GPP Note: Mostly just one-offs with a potential mini-stack as Arrieta shouldn’t flash a ton of upside.
Washington Nationals @ St Louis Cardinals (-125)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Cardinals smacked around the Nationals staff on Tuesday night so they are going to carry ownership Wednesday night as people chase them against a weaker SP in Ross. Wainwright is always in play for me but I do think that the Nationals are a strong GPP stack as they have plenty of favorable histories against Wainwright.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Interesting team to stack at the top of the order.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: I am going to look at mini-stacks over full stacks in hopes that the Cardinals don’t go nuts and are popular as the main stack.
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Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros (-245)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. I was all over the Tigers on Tuesday night and I am going to be totally opposite of that on Wednesday. I love the way that McCullers has looked to begin the season and this is a tougher spot for the Tigers bats. With that said, I will still have some DET mini-stacks as they are swinging it really well in Houston. Fulmer makes his return to the rotation and while he has ability in his arm, I just don’t think this is a good spot for him to try and pick up 6 innings.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: DET has a few LHBs that could cause some problems but McCullers is MUCH stronger than Odorizzi.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Coming out bold and saying that the Astros score 7+ in this game.
Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
Tuesday’s match-up has opened with a total of 9. If the weather is good here, I think there will be some runs put up as both SPs have struggled to limit hard contact. Keller has been atrocious through 2 starts but I do think long-term he’s a solid SP at the MLB level. He was dominant last season at home so he is in his best spot. I just hope that we get a plus-hitting environment so that we can get a couple of game stacks built.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Trouth-Ohtani should be an EXTREMELY popular mini-stack.
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Could be a great spot for a breakout performance.
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox (-111)
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Rodon was impressive in his first start, despite the walks and hit-by-pitches. He was scratched from his most recent start so that’s something to monitor. We should get another decent pitching match-up here but both offenses should be very happy that Tuesday night is over.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: I think that attacking Rodon could be interesting as he was scratched from his last start.
CHW 5-star plays: Adam Eaton
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The White Sox have 20 Ks in 58 PAs against Plesac in their careers.
Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The ball is jumping on Tuesday night in SF but the park is not small nor is it built for hitting. I wonder if people go to this game for a little more offense based on how the ball was jumping last night. Mahle intrigues me for GPP purposes as I think he is an extremely talented arm.
CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Reds bats woke on Tuesday night and that could lead to bad things for Cueto.
SFG 5-star plays: Tommy La Stella
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs or maybe mini-stacks.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-280)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I will be stacking the Dodgers multiple ways, trying to hit all the combinations that I can between 3 and 5 men on either FD or DK. May has stepped up a bit as an SP and he legit won the 5th starter spot in the spring. He looked dominant to begin his season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard
GPP Note: May should be extremely popular so I will only use COL bats as one-offs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: The Dodgers will always be a top stack, no matter who the opposing SP is for me.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers: We just always have to consider the Dodgers as a top stack option. When it comes to the Dodgers we either look to fade them as the main stack or we try to go overweight on the field. If we try to match the field in % then we are just treading water.
- Houston Astros: I am going back to Houston as a bounceback stack against an SP who has been giving up plenty of HRs over the last couple of seasons on the field. I think we can easily flip-flop the Braves in this spot as I think both teams go a bit overlooked. The reason I went with Houston here is that I believe they go more overlooked.
- Atlanta Braves: The Braves were embarrassed by the Marlins on Tuesday night so I am going to look for them to bounce back on Wednesday night. Neidert has a future in the league but I just don’t think he’s ready yet as he has some control issues. If you are familiar with my writing over the years, I focus on walks and how they lead to HUGE innings for DFS purposes.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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