Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/12:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Tyler Glasnow – Glasnow tops Nilly’s Carnage Report below for the main slate of games, with Darvish being on the earlier slate. A matchup with the Rangers is generally going to set you up for success as an opposing pitcher. The nice thing with Glasnow is he’s going to bring you some elite-level strikeout upside. Going back to the start of last season he has a 37.7% strikeout rate and this Rangers lineup is no stranger to K’s either. With an implied run total of just 3.1 runs, it’s hard not to like Glasnow in this spot.

• Freddy Peralta – Let’s take a look at the mid-range with Fastball Freddy! If you’re chasing strikeouts, look no further. Peralta faced the Cubs in his last outing as well and went 5 innings on his way to 28.3 DraftKings points. The Cubs bats are struggling to start the season and Freddy has a strikeout rate of 39.6% going back to last season. You give yourself a ton of upside if you pair him as your SP2 with a guy like Glasnow.
• Justus Sheffield – We can round out the pitcher’s section by doing a little dumpster diving. If you want an elite-level SP1 and a more expensive stack, you’re going to need to save at SP2 and I think Sheffield can get you there. It’s a great matchup with the Orioles who have an implied run total of 4.5 and he’s going to keep the fall on the ground. Going back to the start of last season he has a ground ball rate of 50.3% which is going to limit the opposing teams’ upside by keeping the ball in the yard. I think you could do much worse as your SP2 on tonight’s main slate.

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Early Slate:

Boston Red Sox (+138) @ Minnesota Twins (-150)

Implied Run Totals:

Red Sox – 4.3 IRT

Twins – 5.3 IRT

Rundown:

A battle of lefties here as Martin Perez and J.A. Happ take the mound for these two squads. The Twins come in with the much higher implied run total but the Red Sox went bonkers yesterday as JD Martinez and Rafael Devers combined for 5 home runs. Both teams have some lefty mashers in the middle of the lineup with Martinez and Cruz that they’ll need to navigate around. I would be much more interested in the offenses here over the pitchers due to the strength of both these lineups.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez

GPP Note: This is a nice full-stack with some cheap pieces scattered throughout.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano

GPP Note: I would prefer the Twins slightly in this game, but both offenses are stackable if you’re playing the early slate.

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San Diego Padres (-227) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+205)

Implied Run Totals:

Padres – 5.2 IRT

Pirates – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

Yu Darvish grades out as the top overall pitcher on Nilly’s Carnage Report below, so he’s a guy you’re going to want to get to here. The Pirates come in with a low implied run total and the park factor is in Darvish’s favor, he’s an elite option tonight. Trevor Cahill might not be the best pitcher ever, but I always hate stacking against him, he somehow finds his way out of big spots and allowing just a 29.3% hard contact rate. If you need to stack one of these teams for the early slate, it’s pretty easily the Padres, but I’m not running to the banks to do it.

SDP 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham

4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Manny Machado

GPP Note: Cahill just doesn’t give up a ton of big innings, so more of a mini-stack team for me hoping they can run into a few home runs.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier

GPP Note: I just don’t see much of a reason to go all that heavy on the Pirates in a tough matchup against one of the top pitchers on the day.

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Main Slate:

Seattle Mariners (-109) @ Baltimore Orioles (+101)

Implied Run Totals:

Mariners – 4.6 IRT

Orioles – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Justus Sheffield in my pitcher’s section and think he’s a guy you can get to on this slate if you need a cheap SP2. By no means am I trying to jam him in, but I think you can do worse if you’re looking to stack an expensive offense, the Orioles aren’t the greatest lineup, so he has some upside here. Dean Kremer will get the start for the O’s, he didn’t look all that bad in his first start against the Yankees but really struggled with control.

SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger

4-star plays: Kyle Seager

GPP Note: More of an MME kind of team, but if Kremer starts walking guys again, the Mariners could be in business.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Sheffield than the O’s offense.

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New York Yankees (-185) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+155)

Implied Run Totals:

Yankees – 5.3 IRT

Blue Jays – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Yankees and comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings. I think a lot of people will flock to Tyler Glasnow in a better matchup and a cheaper price tag making Cole an elite GPP pivot. He scored 43.4 DraftKings points last time out against the Orioles and is always pretty matchup proof. I do like the Yankees bats a good deal here as well, Robbie Ray is giving up a hard contact rate of over 40% going back to last season and we know he can struggle with command. If he starts walking people, this Yankees offense will make him pay with the sluggers in the middle of that order.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks

GPP Note: I like the Yankees a good deal here and think they come with a ton of upside against Ray.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero

GPP Note: You’re pretty much just home run hunting against Cole, no interest in any sort of real stack.

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Texas Rangers (+191) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-211)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rangers – 3.1 IRT

Rays – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Tyler Glasnow at the beginning of the article, but he’s probably my favorite pitcher on the slate given the strikeout upside he has. He also has at least 24 DraftKings points in each of his first two starts this season and got that pitch count all the way up to 97 last time out. Dane Dunning looked good in his first start of the season as well going for 23.5 DraftKings points against the Jays. He’s one of those bottom-barrel salary saver-type pitchers if you need to get there, but I think you could do worse.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo

GPP Note: I love me some Glasnow, no interest outside of Gallo for me.

TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe

GPP Note: It’s not the greatest spot for the Rays, but it’s also not the worst spot. Dunning does a really nice job limiting hard contact.

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Philadelphia Phillies (+127) @ New York Mets (-138)

Implied Run Totals: 

Phillies – 4.0 IRT

Mets – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

This Mets weather situation turned into a disaster yesterday and ended up getting postponed. It looks like we’re in for some more weather issues tonight, so keep an eye on the Weather Station for a better handle on if it’s worth the risk on these guys. Currently, we have it tied as the leading candidate to get PPD tonight. That said, we’ll see a matchup of Chase Anderson and David Peterson here. Neither of these pitchers is all that great considering the offenses they’ll need to go up against, you can make a case for both of these offenses for full stacks or mini-stacks, but man that weather risk sure scares me.

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm

GPP Note: The nice thing with the Phillies is you get salary-saving guys with Bohm and McCutchen if you’re doing a full-stack.

NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith

4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Peter Alonso

GPP Note: The Mets have the higher implied total and would likely be my preference in this game. Neither of them will make my top 3 stacks on the slate, but they’re solid for MME.

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Miami Marlins (+135) @ Atlanta Braves (-146)

Implied Run Totals: 

Marlins – 3.9 IRT

Braves – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

Sandy Alcantara has looked like a true ace to start out the season going for at least 24 DraftKings points in each of his two starts. He’ll get a more difficult matchup here, but the stuff is definitely there if you’re looking to take a chance in tournaments. The Braves will send Huascar Ynoa to the mound, I can’t say the same thing for him. The one thing he does have going for him is the matchup. The Marlins aren’t going to end the season as a top offense, so you can take a shot here and hope the Marlins are having one of those typical Marlins offense-type days.

MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte

4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Jazz Chisholm

GPP Note: I think you can get to a mini-stack here, but I wouldn’t leave Marte off of it, and he’s quite expensive.

ATL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: Alcantara is a legit pitcher, I like the talent this offense has, but I think we can find better stacking spots.

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Chicago Cubs (+117) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-126)

Implied Run Totals: 

Cubs – 4.1 IRT

Brewers – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Freddy Peralta at the beginning of this article, he makes a lot of sense as an SP2 option on tonight’s slate. He’s striking guys out at an elite level and gets a matchup with a Cubs offense that has started the season incredibly cold. The Cubs will send Adbert Alzolay to the mound, he gave up two home runs to the Brewers in his first start, on the way to four earned runs as a whole. Keep an eye on this Brewers lineup though, Alzolay may get lucky and avoid Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw due to injury, while Kolten Wong is already out of the lineup.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo

4-star plays: Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras

GPP Note: I’ll probably have more interest in Peralta than the Cubs here, but I’m fine with some one-offs.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Omar Narvaez, Keston Hiura

GPP Note: Keep an eye on the lineup, this Brewers offense will be pretty depleted if Yelich and Shaw aren’t in there.

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Washington Nationals (+123) @ St Louis Cardinals (-133)

Implied Run Totals: 

Nationals – 4.2 IRT

Cardinals – 4.9 IRT

Rundown:

Both of these pitchers limit hard contact pretty well, much like a lot of this slate, but only one of them is playable in terms of a pitching option for me. Erick Fedde doesn’t strike out enough bats for me to want to roster him in this matchup. John Gant, on the other hand, can you get you there. Gant has a strikeout rate of 27.5% if we go all the way back to last season. It’s not the greatest matchup, but you’re getting a nice price tag on him.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Victor Robles, Trea Turner

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack type team for me against Gant.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman

GPP Note: Similar story here, but I will have some interest in the Cardinals as a full stack.

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Detroit Tigers (+200) @ Houston Astros (-221)

Implied Run Totals: 

Tigers – 3.4 IRT

Astros – 5.2 IRT

Rundown:

Both pitchers are interesting in this one, the stronger side is pretty obviously Zack Greinke due to how weak that Tigers lineup is. It’s a big price on Greinke but I think he’s a pretty safe start here. As far as Mize is concerned, I think I would have a lot more interest if he wasn’t facing the Astros. He’s got a lot of raw talent that just needs to be polished. I don’t hate taking a shot on him at this price tag in tournaments.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilson Ramos

GPP Note: I like Greinke quite a bit here, no real interest in the Tigers bats.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack type team, I do have some Mize interest in tournaments, but these bats can give him fits.

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Los Angeles Angels (-108) @ Kansas City Royals (-100)

Implied Run Totals: 

Angels – 4.6 IRT

Royals – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

It wouldn’t be full slate unless I had some love for the Royals offense! They’re going to be a top stack for me here and will be pretty low-owned. Not only do I love the spot for them, but they’re cheap enough to allow us to spend some money at our pitcher spots. Alex Cobb has a hard contact over 40% going back to last season which is always something I’m looking for when stacking up an offense. I won’t have any interest in Brady Singer on the other side however, he didn’t look so hot in his first start. I’ll let him figure some things out before I run him out.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh

4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani

GPP Note: No issue with the Angels as a secondary stack or mini-stack due to the matchup.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: The Royals will be a top stack for me on this slate, love the bats and love what they let us do with our pitching options.

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Cleveland Indians (+120) @ Chicago White Sox (-131)

Implied Run Totals: 

Indians – 4.0 IRT

White Sox – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

This is an interesting pitching matchup. Tristan McKenzie will make his season debut and is one of their top prospects, I don’t think they’ll let him go long enough to have any sort of interest here, but something to monitor. Carlos Rodon looked great in his last start going for 29.1 DraftKings points. This Indians lineup isn’t all that great and he makes sense as a GPP pivot off of Greinke and Glasnow in that top range.

CLE 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: I suppose you could get here as a mini-stack, but I think Rodon is in for a really nice year.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert

GPP Note: McKenzie has a ton of talent but I don’t think will last long enough to take the Sox out of play here, I like them a good deal as a secondary stack.

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Oakland Athletics (-124) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+114)

Implied Run Totals: 

Athletics – 5.0 IRT

Diamondbacks – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for Arizona here and he has not looked good to start the season. I stacked a bit against him last season and seemed to work well as some leverage. People still see that name and don’t play bats against him, I like Oakland quite a bit here. Chris Bassitt will start for the A’s and is pretty good at limiting hard contact, so in a good matchup against the Dbacks, I think you can get to him as an SP2 option here.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano

4-star plays: Mark Canha, Matt Olson

GPP Note: The A’s are in contention to be a top stack for me on this slate, stay tuned to see if they make the top three!

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: There isn’t a whole lot I like from the Dbacks, I like Bassitt a good deal on the other side of this one.

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Cincinnati Reds (+103) @ San Francisco Giants (-111)

Implied Run Totals: 

Reds – 4.2 IRT

Giants – 4.4 IRT

Rundown:

The Reds started the season really hot offensively but now move to one of the bigger pitcher’s parks in the league against Aaron Sanchez tonight. Sanchez wasn’t all that great from a fantasy perspective in his first start but held the Padres lineup to just one earned run. I think he’ll do just enough to be annoying again if you’re looking to stack the Reds up. Wade Miley is never a guy I stack against, he allows very little hard contact and this Giants offense isn’t all that great. They will hit lefties this season which is something to monitor here.

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos

GPP Note: I just don’t love the spot for the Reds, I’ll jump off them here.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: I don’t love a full-stack, but a mini-stack with these lefty-mashers is definitely in play.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Kansas City Royals: I hinted at this a bit when I was breaking down this game, but I love the Royals tonight. They get a matchup with Alex Cobb who is allowing a hard contact rate of 41.4% going back to the start of last season. I would think they come in pretty low owned and have an implied run total of over 4.5 runs here. Outside of Merrifield and Perez, they’re pretty cheap which will allow us to do what we want with our pitching as well.
2. Oakland Athletics: I’ve been stacking against Madison Bumgarner for the past year or two, people don’t go to opposing bats due to the name recognition on Bumgarner. He’s been pretty bad this season already, giving up 11 earned runs in just nine innings pitched. He can’t seem to find any sort of command so if he starts walking guys and the A’s can get ahold of a long ball or two, we’re in business.
3. New York Yankees: Similar to the A’s stack, the Yankees face a pitcher that has had some command issues over the past few years. Robbie Ray is giving up a hard contact rate of 40.9% over the past year and a half with a walk rate of near 18%. Those two stats lead to offensive success more times than not especially against the big home run bats that the Yankees will throw out there.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Walsh (DK – $4.7k; FD – $3.1k)

I’m going for three in a row after getting Nelson Cruz and Rafael Devers right in my previous articles, so let’s get another! Jared Walsh matches up very well against Brady Singer here. Walsh has a 0.482 ISO and a 0.469 wOBA against right-handed pitching going back to the start of last season. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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