Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/11:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jordan Montgomery
- Matt Shoemaker
- Daniel Ponce de Leon
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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kershaw looked much better in start #2 and can you believe he is going to be making start #3 on the season? Feels like we just started! Scherzer struggled with the long ball, allowing 4 HRs in his first start of the 2021 season. I love seeing pitching match-ups like this as it should be a battle. A lot of times it’s a couple of random HRs that decide match-ups like this.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Not looking to attack Kershaw at home with anything other than one-offs.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Looking for the one-off HR off of Scherzer.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We have a juicy run total in this game so we are going to want to get pieces. I much prefer the BOS side because Pivetta looked good this spring and he looked solid in his 2021 debut. Lopez actually pitched better than his final numbers indicate in his season debut but he has issues allowing baserunners.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Franchy Cordero
GPP Note: LHBs have given Lopez a TON of trouble at the MLB level.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Looking at one-offs and maybe a dart throw BAL stack in large field GPPs.
Chicago Cubs (-145) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cubs – Trevor Williams
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Trevor Williams gets to return to Pittsburgh as a visiting SP and now he gets to face the offense that didn’t really provide much for him (to be fair, he didn’t prevent many runs while there either). Williams allowed just 2 hits in 6 innings against MIL in his Cubs debut so he gets a weaker offense in his second start. Brubaker was decent in his first start but struggled with control as he walked 4 in 4 innings while throwing 82 pitches.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Not loving the Cubs lineup but they are always a GPP stack.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Phillip Evans, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Mainly looking at one-offs, if any Pirates at all.
San Diego Padres (-172) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Padres – Adrian Morejon
Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz
Rundown:
Today’s game offers a total of 9.5. Morejon was decent in his first start of the season and now gets to face a somewhat softer Texas lineup. He does benefit by being left-handed so he neutralizes Gallo-Lowe-Dahl a bit more than Paddack on Saturday. He threw 64 pitches in his first start so we should see him stretched to the 75-80 mark if he’s throwing well.
SD 5-star plays: Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: SD gets to use the DH today so we should see a stronger lineup, even without Tatis Jr.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak
GPP Note: The Rangers aren’t a very dangerous team but they can be pesky at the plate.
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Marlins –
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
Waiting on the updated Vegas information as we wait for the Marlins SP.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Dickerson is 14 for 33 with 7 extra-base hits against Stroman.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Mets bats are a bit cold so hopefully we see a plus match-up based on whoever Miami puts on the mound.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rays – Brent Honeywell
Rundown:
We are waiting on Vegas information so I will update this game when we get it. I am seeing rumors that Honeywell will open for Wacha in this game.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Clint Frazier, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: I think the Yankees hit 3+ HRs today (as long as it’s against Wacha as the long-man).
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Mike Brosseau
GPP Note: Just looking at guys as one-offs with upside.
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Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Reds – Jose De Leon
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a 9 total. Weaver allowed 3 HRs in 5.2 innings during his first start of the regular season. That was after he allowed 8 of them in 14.2 Spring training innings. He has an HR problem right now and all 3 in his opening start were given up to LHBs. Jose De Leon was once a big-time pitching prospect so he has the talent. He struck out 9 in 5 innings during his opening start of 2021, while allowing just 2 solo HRs.
CIN 5-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: The Reds bats are getting it done and should be pretty popular.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Mainly just looking at ARI one-offs, if I use them at all.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. There have been some rain issues in this series so hopefully, we get a clear day on Sunday. Both offenses look like they are in plus spots with some hittable pitchers on the mound. Minor struggled a bit with a weak Texas lineup but he does get the White Sox when they are less than 100%. Cease could surprise at times this season but he did struggle in his first start against the Angels.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: I will probably use KC as a stack and then fade them as one-offs in most of my builds. Just bank on scoring 7+ runs or being shut down.
CWS 5-star plays: Yermin Mercedes
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
GPP Note: I feel better about stacking and using the White Sox in this game.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals (-125)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ponce de Leon is an arm that I have liked for some time and now he faces a Milwaukee roster that he has held to an average of just .083 in 40 PAs. Anderson is a guy that isn’t going to surprise hitters so he has to rely on getting soft contact. He gave up 3 HRs to a Cubs offense that has struggled a bit this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Mostly interested in guys as one-off as DPdL has been a reverse splits guy.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Loving the Cardinals as a lower-owned stack, especially with the BvP history of Goldschmidt and Arenado.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-121)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Giants – Anthony Desclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think this game is going to be about the pitching and will look at using both guys. Each team has a one-off bat that could come into play with either solid recent trends or solid history against the opposing SP. We like taking pitchers in SF as this might be the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Mostly looking at one-offs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Maybe just one-offs but I like Marquez in this game.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-157)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Matt Moore
Braves – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
Today’s game has opened with a total of 9. This game is the Sunday night baseball game of the week. Smyly gets a much better match-up than Moore does as the Braves bats are waking up. For single game/showdown purposes, I think the chalk is going to be on the bats and mostly on the ATL side.
PHI 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: McCutchen is 3 for 4 with 2 HRs against Smyly.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Ozuna is 5 for 11 with an HR against Moore.
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (-180)
Implied Run Totals:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Twins – Matt Shoemaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Flexen looked strong in his return to the majors after pitching in the KBO last season. His season debut came against SF so this one is a bit more of a difficult match-up. Shoemaker looked strong to begin his MIN season and he draws an ideal match-up with the weak bats of Seattle.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Mostly a fade as the Mariners lack real offensive upside.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano (time for Sano to bust out!)
GPP Note: Flexen has been mostly a reverse splits guy at the MLB level.
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Angels – Alex Cobb
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas information as Toronto hasn’t listed an SP yet, but I am seeing a rumor that it will be Tanner Roark.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Not sure if you guys knew this or not but Mike Trout is really good at hitting baseballs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: The power in this lineup is legit.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians (-172)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Indians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Twins absolutely smacked Urena around and he had very little control and I can see him having some issues with a Cleveland lineup that isn’t quite as dangerous but still has some strong bats at the top. Allen was extremely strong in the spring and came out a little rough against KC and settled in. He looks like he might take a leap this season and have a bright future in the Indians’ rotation.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Mainly looking at one-offs depending on the weather.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: I want to attack Urena with stacks and plenty of one-offs from Cleveland.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays: Going back to the Blue Jays again, this time after they put up 15 runs. I love the match-up as a few guys have solid BvP history against Cobb and the ballpark is geared towards all sorts of offense.
- St Louis Cardinals: I am going to pick on Brett Anderson in nearly every start he makes this season. Goldschmidt and Arenado have beaten him up in their match-ups and I think guys like Edman, Carlson, O’Neill offer upside.
- San Diego Padres: This is me picking on Foltynewicz and hoping that the roof is open in Texas. Grisham’s return to the lineup has helped cover for the loss of Tatis and he’s swinging it so well to begin the season.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, St Louis
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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