Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/10:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Chris Paddack – Paddack had a rough start to the season against the Diamondbacks going just 4 innings while giving up 7 combined hits and walks which came out to 6.8 DraftKings points. I think he fare’s much better today and bounces back nicely. He gets a matchup with the Texas Rangers who just got no-hit by Joe Musgrove last night and come in with an implied run total of 3.9 runs. This lineup just isn’t good and Paddack has a lot of upside if he can figure some things out. Paddack tops Nilly’s Carnage Report below for the main slate of games.

• Julio Urias – Let’s take a look at the highest-priced pitcher on the main slate in Mr. Urias. He went 7 innings in his first start on just 79 pitches, amounting to 27.4 DraftKings points. The big thing here will be the pitch count, Dave Roberts isn’t known for letting his young pitchers go that deep into games but if he can keep that pitch count low, he has no choice. The Nationals have a strong top half of their lineup but drops off really quickly after the middle of the order. Pitching isn’t great on the main slate, so he’ll be one of your better options regardless of price.
• Jeff Hoffman – As I mentioned with Urias, pitching is not pretty on the main slate so you’re going to have to get a little wacky with your SP2 if you don’t want two spend-ups. Jeff Hoffman had a big first game going for 23.5 DraftKings points against the Cardinals. He gets another solid matchup here against a Diamondbacks team with an implied run total of 4.6 runs, which is actually fairly low for this slate. He has a 40.5% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season, which is scary. But I think if we can get lucky, his 21% strikeout rate can salvage his day against a really weak Dbacks lineup.

We have a BRAND NEW update to our MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer with advanced user-controlled scoring systems inside.  You control how the lineups are built from three main uses of our projections: Points-based, DFSA Grades, or the unique blend of Hybrid Scoring!  The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like  Love  or Dislike  a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level.

---

Early Slate:

Miami Marlins (+230) @ New York Mets (-257)

Implied Run Totals:

Marlins – 2.5 IRT

Mets – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

The Marlins are going to struggle here, as they get the pleasure of facing Jacob DeGrom on the mound. They’re heavy underdogs with a 2.5 implied run total, DeGrom is a top pitcher on the slate and tops the ranks of Nilly’s Carnage Report below. The Marlins will throw Trevor Rogers out there to face this Mets lineup, he didn’t look all that bad in his first outing against the Cardinals going 4 innings and giving up two earned runs. I think you can play both of these pitchers if you’re punting SP2 hoping for an expensive stack while also jamming DeGrom in there. Rogers has a 30% strikeout rate going back to last season, so he can salvage your day with a few k’s.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Send me your head-to-heads if you’re stacking the Marlins, I’ll be glad to accept them!

NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso, Dominic Smith

4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: You can definitely get to this offense, they bring quite a bit of upside even though Rogers has limited hard contact since 2020.

---

New York Yankees (-117) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+108)

Implied Run Totals:

Yankees – 4.4 IRT

Rays – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

The Yankees will send Domingo German to the hill to face off against Chris Archer, who will make his first start of the season. We’ll start with German and the Yankees, he hasn’t exactly been great… he has a hard contact rate over 40% and an ERA of 9.00 going back to the start of last season. This Rays team can hit with the best of em’, it may be best just to stay away from German and target those Rays bats. Archer hasn’t been much better, actually, he’s been worse. He missed last season but in 2019 had an ERA over five and in his short stint this season gave up a 75% hard contact rate. He’s not what he use to be and if people are going to be afraid of the name here, I love getting to these Yankee bats.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce

GPP Note: This game has some sneaky shootout potential with these two pitchers. The Yankees stack is expensive up top, but if you get different and make a wrap-around stack or like a 3-8, you can get some of those cheaper bats at the bottom of the order.

TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Randy Arozarena

GPP Note: I like targeting the lefties in this lineup and filling them in with the big power-hitting righties, guys like Arozarena and Diaz, solid stack all around.

Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.

---

Seattle Mariners (+164) @ Minnesota Twins (-179)

Implied Run Totals:

Mariners – 3.4 IRT

Twins – 4.7 IRT

Rundown:

We have an interesting pitching battle with Yusei Kikuchi taking the mound for the Mariners while Michael Pineda will go for the Twins. Both pitchers had great first starts going for at least 20 DraftKings points. Both pitchers have limited hard contact going back to last season as well, I think this is more of a spot where I’ll target pitching rather than looking too deep into these bats. If you’re picking one offense to potentially mini-stack I think you have to the Twins just because of the raw upside that they have over a pretty weak Mariners lineup.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I like the pitchers quite a bit in this game.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver

GPP Note: The Twins are my preferred side in this game, any time there’s a lefty on the mound you have to look at Nelson Cruz, but I don’t think I’ll be full stacking this team.

The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB ReSearch Station includes today’s  DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.

 

Kansas City Royals (+125) @ Chicago White Sox (-136)

Implied Run Totals:

Royals – 4.0 IRT

White Sox – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

We’ve got a good deal of weather concern in this game, particularly surrounding the pitchers, it doesn’t look like PPD is that big of a worry, but you don’t want the game to start and then have your pitcher enter a rain delay, effectively ending his day. Keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates surrounding this one. The Royals will send Mike Minor to the mound who looked pretty good against the Rangers in his first start. He has a 26% strikeout rate going back to last season, so he can afford a few mistakes here and is a solid mid-range option. Dylan Cease will take the mound for the White Sox and is the cheapest pitcher on the early slate. He’s too cheap here considering his talent, if the weather lightens up here and the delay chance decreases, I like him quite a bit in this spot in order to get to DeGrom and an expensive stack.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez

GPP Note: If you’re not going to take the weather risk on Cease, you can definitely make a case for a mini-stack on the Royals here.

CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Yermin Mercedes, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: I do like Minor on the other side of this one, but the White Sox still have some upside here due to the power they can send to the dish.

---

Milwaukee Brewers (+102) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-110)

Implied Run Totals: 

Brewers – 4.0 IRT

Cardinals – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

Both of these pitchers looked fine in their first starts of the season. Adrian Houser went five innings for the Brewers and allows a pretty low hard contact rate at just 25.9%, but he makes up for that with his lack of strikeouts at just 18%. The Cardinals are always a pesky offense for the Brewers to deal with and do have some talent in this lineup, I would rather just pay the extra $200 to get to Kikuchi on DraftKings. Carlos Martinez gave up four earned runs to the red hot Reds in his first start, he’s been pretty mediocre going back to last season however with an ERA up near 10.0, I just don’t see myself getting to either of these guys, I’d rather target the bats in a game where we have some weather issues as well.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Omar Narvaez, Lorenzo Cain

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack type team due to how slow their offense has started.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Same story with the Cardinals here, I may slightly prefer them over the Brewers here, which hurts to say.

Afternoon Games:

Oakland Athletics (+133) @ Houston Astros (-162)

Implied Run Totals: 

Athletics – 4.0 IRT

Astros – 4.9 IRT

Rundown:

Frankie Montas and Jose Urquidy will take the mound here, and I actually kind of like the underdog in Montas a bit more here if you’re looking for a pitcher. He has a 25% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and hasn’t allowed all that much hard contact. He does struggle with command at times, so if he can mitigate his walks, I think he comes out with an effective day here. Urquidy threw 101 pitches in just 4.1 innings of work in his first outing, so it’s clear they’re going to let him go when he starts. I’m okay with him, the Athletics offense hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire to start the season.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha

GPP Note: Urquidy has been pretty good in his young career and misses a lot of barrels, I think I’ll look elsewhere if you’re playing this afternoon slate.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez

GPP Note: Even if you’re going to play some Montas, I don’t hate the idea of a hedge stack. If he starts walking guys he can run into big trouble if one of these bats in the Astros lineup launches one over the fence.

---

Colorado Rockies (+154) @ San Francisco Giants (-182)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rockies – 3.63 IRT

Giants – 4.87 IRT

Rundown:

The Giants will send Logan Webb out there for his second start of the season, he struggled in his first start but gets a nice bounce-back spot here. The Rockies away from Coors are going to be an offense we can target pitchers against, outside of Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, there isn’t a whole lot to be afraid of from this offense. As for the Rockies, Chi-Chi Gonzalez isn’t a guy I’ll be using tonight, he’s allowed a 40+% hard contact rate since 2020 and really doesn’t strike anyone out making the Giants stack firmly in play on this afternoon slate… Alex Dickerson and Brandon Crawford have some nice BvP against Gonzalez in a short sample size.

COL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Away from Coors, I would rather go with Logan Webb on the other side of this one.

SFG 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey

GPP Note: On a short slate, I like the Giants stack quite a bit against good ole Chi-Chi.

---

Detroit Tigers (+149) @ Cleveland Indians (-178)

Implied Run Totals: 

Tigers – 3.88 IRT

Indians – 5.12 IRT

Rundown:

Tarik Skubal went 5.1 innings against the Indians in his first start this season and didn’t look all that terrible. Both of these offenses are pretty mediocre so I think targeting pitching will be okay here, but I would rather do it with Aaron Civale and the Indians. The Tigers are just not good at any point in their lineup. Civale put up 22.8 DraftKings points in this spot in his first start this season and I’ll go right back to him here. We do have some weather issues here but looks like it should hold off until the end of the game.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: This lineup is ugly, no thanks.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario

GPP Note: Looking into this lineup a bit more, I’ll have some interest in a mini-stack at the very least with these lefties and Jose Rameriz.

---

Chicago Cubs (-159) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+135)

Implied Run Totals: 

Cubs – 4.70 IRT

Pirates – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

I like Zach Davies quite a bit here, he scored 18.6 DraftKings points in this matchup last time he pitched and the Pirates lineup just isn’t all that great. Davies is always great at limiting hard contact and has a sneaky 22.7% strikeout rate going back to last season. On that short little turbo slate, I’ll be pretty split between Civale and Davies as my pitcher. As far as Mitch Keller goes, he struggled in his first outing against the Cubs, particularly with walks. If he starts walking guys again he’s going to be in trouble, I would rather stack up this Cubs offense than go with Keller in this spot.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ

4-star plays: Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: I like the Cubs a good deal here, I don’t love the park factor but let’s take advantage of Keller’s 21.6% walk rate.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll be all over Davies in this one, no sense in going with the Pirates bats

MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.

Main Slate:

San Diego Padres (-170) @ Texas Rangers (+156)

Implied Run Totals: 

Padres – 5.2 IRT

Rangers – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Chris Paddack in my pitcher’s section at the beginning of the article, but I love me some Chris Paddack in this spot. The Rangers just got no-hit last night, and no, Paddack hasn’t been great, but I like his chances to bounce back here. Jordan Lyles will take the mound for the Rangers, he looked really good in his first start but this Padres offense is too loaded for me to want to with him. In fact, the Padres are one of my favorite stacks on the main slate, load up on them.

SDP 5-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer

4-star plays: Wil Myers, Jake Cronenworth, Ha-seong Kim

GPP Note: I like the Padres bats quite a bit, Lyles comes in as a bottom three pitcher on our Carnage Report and that SIERA is something we can take advantage of here.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Gimme all the Paddack in this one.

---

Boston Red Sox (-127) @ Baltimore Orioles (+117)

Implied Run Totals: 

Red Sox – 5.1 IRT

Orioles – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll start with Garrett Richards who got absolutely shelled by the Orioles in his first start, giving up 6 earned runs over just 2 innings pitched. If you think they have his number you can go right back to him here, the Boston bullpen isn’t exactly going to help him after that either. The Orioles make for a sneaky GPP stack here. As for Bruce Zimmerman, he looked pretty good in his first start going for 18 DraftKings points. That being said, I think the Sox are in play here as well. I’ll be taking the over in this game, both pitchers are average at best while both bullpens are a fire hazard due to all the gas cans laying around.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: The Sox have a ton of upside in this one, the middle of the order can mash lefties and there’s no help behind Zimmerman here.

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini

4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Maikel Franco

GPP Note: The Orioles should be pretty low-owned here so I like them as a mini-stack or a leverage stack in GPPs.

---

Los Angeles Angels (+114) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-123)

Implied Run Totals: 

Angels – 5.1 IRT

Blue Jays – 5.6 IRT

Rundown:

Jose Quintana will take the mound for the Angels and man has he been bad. I’m hoping people see the name here and stay away from the Jays offense or better yet, start Quintana as a pitcher. But he has a 45.9% hard contact rate going back to last season. I’ll be overweight on the Jays in this one. Speaking of the Jays, they’ll send Steven Matz to the mound here, he had a huge game against the Rangers in his first start going for 31 DraftKings points. This will be a more difficult matchup, but his 27.3% strikeout rate allows him the ability to make a few mistakes and get away with it. I do like him at this price tag.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: If you have the money to spend up for this three-man mini-stack go for it, but I like Matz more than the Angels offense today.

TOR 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette

4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Randal Grichuk

GPP Note: The Jays just might be my top stack on the slate, keep reading to find out!

---

Philadelphia Phillies (+119) @ Atlanta Braves (-129)

Implied Run Totals: 

Phillies – 3.8 IRT

Braves – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

This is a game where we can look at some pitching option, and is probably not one that we’ll be stacking much of either offense. Zach Eflin looked great in his first start going for 26.8 DraftKings points in this same matchup, you can go right back to him here at a nice price tag. The same can be said for Ian Anderson, however, I think I would just take the savings on Eflin. The big thing for these two pitchers will be dodging the big bats in both lineups, if they can navigate their way around these guys they could be in for a solid day yet again.

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in both these pitchers than these offenses.

ATL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in both these pitchers than these offenses.

---

Cincinnati Reds (-124) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)

Implied Run Totals: 

Reds – 5.0 IRT

Diamondbacks – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

I wrote up Jeff Hoffman in my pitcher’s section as a guy we can target as an SP2… the Carnage Report has him as the lowest graded pitcher on the slate, so I’ll have to explain myself a little bit! Is Hoffman a great option, no? But SP2 on this slate is going to be ugly unless you go to that $8k range, so I’m more than okay with taking a chance on him at this price tag. The Diamondbacks offense is just ugly. The Reds offense on the other hand has been one of the best in baseball and one you can go right back to here. This should be more of a bullpen game for the Dbacks as Smith is filling in for the injured Zac Gallen, you can stack up the Reds again.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez

GPP Note: The Reds are in contention as a top stack on the main slate for me, if they don’t crack the top three, I’ll be more than happy to mini-stack them here.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, David Peralta

GPP Note: I will have some Jeff Hoffman shares tonight, but that’s not to say you can’t play some of these Dbacks bats.

---

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Implied Run Totals: 

Nationals – NA

Dodgers – NA

Rundown:

I believe we’re still waiting on the Nationals to name a starter, but it should be either Patrick Corbin or Austin Voth, so keep an eye on that confirmation. The Dodgers will be in play as a stack regardless just due to the firepower in that lineup. I touched on Julio Urias in my pitcher section, he’s a great option here, if I’m picking between the two I would rather take the discount on Paddack, but that’s being kind of picky. It more so takes me off the Nationals than anything else.

WAS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto

GPP Note: I’ll stick to one-offs in this matchup against Urias.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger

4-star plays: Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Corey Seager

GPP Note: You’ll probably have to go cheap at your SP2 to make a full-stack work, but they’re a high-end stacking option here.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Toronto Blue Jays: I hinted at this a bit when I was breaking down this game, but I love the Jays tonight against Jose Quintana. They have an implied run total of 5.5 runs and matchup beautifully here. Quintana is allowing a 45.9% hard contact rate going all the way back to the start of last season and this Jays lineup is full of firepower that will take advantage of that. They also have some speed upside with guys like Semien, Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel, and Grichuk to give them even more upside.
2. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have made this list quite a bit for me this season but have only really gone nuts once. I like their chances here against Bruce Zimmerman even though he looked good against them the first time out. Zimmerman is allowing a 43.2% hard contact rate and once they get to him they get this Orioles bullpen which is… not good, to put it lightly. The Sox have some certified lefty mashers in the hear of that order, let’s take advantage.
3. Cincinnati Reds: I was between the Reds and the Padres as my final stack here, but I’ll go with the Reds since they’re pretty much the hottest offense in baseball. They’ve scored double-digit runs in three of their six games and should get more of a bullpen game than anything with Riley Smith taking the mound for the Dbacks. They’re not all that expensive either outside of Castellanos, but his price is certainly warranted.

---

MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz (DK – $5.5k; FD – $4.1k)

I feel like this is cheating just because we know how much Cruz crushes left-handed pitching. Going back to the start of last season he has a 0.574 wOBA and a 0.392 ISO against lefties which are just stupid numbers. Kikuchi has been good lately but that doesn’t mean Cruz can’t do his thing, I love me some Nelson Cruz on the early slate of games. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game.  Come inside and check us out!!  We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis.  Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.

When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!

–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–